Contrarian Corpus
activist conference presentation follow up
2015-10-30 · 39 pages

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

N 5 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 3 Craft
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The three reasons

  1. 1

    Citron's 'next Enron' channel-stuffing claim is verifiably false; Philidor accounting is conservative

  2. 2

    Even assuming Philidor sales are fully lost, VRX trades at only ~8x 2016 Cash EPS

  3. 3

    Long-term model implies 135%-214% upside; echoes Buffett's 1963 AmEx Salad Oil buy

Primary demands

  • Hold/accumulate VRX despite Citron report and Philidor controversy
  • Demand greater transparency and disclosure from Valeant management
  • Support termination of Philidor relationship and development of new channel partners
  • Await completion of ad hoc board committee review of Philidor compliance

KPIs cited

Stock price at presentation
$111.50 on Oct 29, 2015, down from ~$260 peak in August 2015
Market cap / TEV
~$40bn market cap, ~$68bn total enterprise value
Philidor share of revenue
~1% of sales in 2014, grew to ~7% in most recent quarter; 5.9% YTD 2015
Organic revenue growth
15% YTD 2015; 13% in Q3 2015
Q3 2015 volume vs price
Volume +~8%, net realized price +~4%
Consensus 2016 EPS revision
$11.47 (Jan 2015) rising to $16.15 (Oct 2015), +~41%
2016 EBITDA floor guidance
$7.5bn management floor; ~$7.0bn if Philidor fully lost
2016 Cash EPS
~$15.50 base case; ~$14 ex-Philidor; ~7x-8x multiple at $111.50
2020 EPS projection
$22 conservative / $32 long-term model
Discounted present value at 10%
$180-$240 conservative; $262-$350 long-term
Philidor purchase option structure
$100mm premium paid December 2014 for $0 strike price option

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (8)

Notes

Specimen of the 'activist-long defense' genre: Pershing defending its ~16.5mm share VRX position after Citron Research's Oct 21, 2015 'next Enron' short report triggered a crash from $260 to $111. Distinctive structure: (1) annotated share-price timeline establishing cause-effect of news events, (2) point-by-point rebuttal of specialty-pharmacy/channel-stuffing allegations, (3) Novartis precedent reassuring that specialty-pharmacy issues are survivable, (4) conservative valuation cases (even with full Philidor loss), (5) historical analogy to Buffett's 1963 AmEx Salad Oil trade as the rhetorical climax. Filename year (2014-09) is misleading — deck is clearly dated October 30, 2015. Campaign ultimately failed: Pershing exited Valeant in March 2017 at a ~$4bn loss, making this a canonical case of a contrarian defense that was on the wrong side. Note the Buffett-fearful-when-others-greedy closer is almost a meta-tell. Strong narrative specimen, modest visual craft.