Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck follow up
2015-01-29 · 81 pages

Pershing Square portfolio (multi-target)

Pershing Square delivered 40.4% net returns in 2014, driven by Allergan's forced sale to Actavis, Herbalife's 52% decline, and Canadian Pacific's continued transformation under Hunter Harrison.

Thesis

Pershing Square's 2014 annual update recaps a 40.4% net return year anchored by Allergan, where a February JV with Valeant led to a 9.7% stake at $128/share and culminated in Allergan's $219 sale to Actavis, a 75% premium to cost. The firm's multi-year Herbalife short paid off as regulatory probes (FTC, DoJ, state AGs) and deteriorating volume points drove HLF down 52% from its January high. Canadian Pacific, now three years into Hunter Harrison's transformation, hit a 64.7% operating ratio and reaffirmed a $17 EPS / $10bn revenue 2018 plan, while Air Products installed Seifi Ghasemi as CEO and began a margin expansion toward ~22.5%. The deck also documents the $2.8bn October PSH Euronext IPO that converted roughly 36% of AUM to permanent capital, freeing Ackman from redemption pressure as the activist universe expands.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    40.4% net returns in 2014 vs. S&P 500 13.7%, led by Allergan, Herbalife short and CP

  2. 2

    Allergan sold to Actavis at $219/share, 75% premium to Pershing Square's $128 cost

  3. 3

    $2.8bn PSH Euronext IPO converted 36% of AUM to permanent capital

KPIs cited

2014 net return (PSH)
Pershing Square 40.4% vs. S&P 500 13.7%
Cumulative net return since 2004 inception
Pershing Square L.P. 696.2% vs. S&P 500 132.1% through 12/31/2014
Average monthly return 2004-2014
Pershing Square 1.7% vs. S&P 500 0.7%; down-month avg (0.8%) vs. (3.6%)
Total Firm AUM
$18.3bn as of 12/31/2014 across five funds
Allergan stake / cost / exit
9.7% stake at $128 avg cost; $153 initial offer (40% premium); $219 Actavis take-out (75% premium to cost)
Canadian Pacific Operating Ratio
64.7% in 2014 (third-best in industry); 2018 target 58-63% implying $17 EPS on $10bn revenue
Air Products EBIT margin gap vs. Praxair
APD 16% vs. Praxair 22%; target ~22.5% (650bps improvement)
Herbalife 2014 stock decline
HLF -52% from $82 January high to $38 YE 2014; -41% since short inception 5/1/2012
Herbalife worldwide volume points growth
From +13% Q3'13 to 0% Q3'14; China 71% to 24%; South & Central America +32% to -17%
Permanent capital share of AUM
36.2% post-PSH IPO; 46% including GP and affiliates
PSH IPO and trading discount
$2.8bn raised 10/1/2014; trades at average 7.1% discount to NAV since Euronext listing
Restaurant Brands International 2014 return
+72% incl. dividends; +175% since 2012 Justice Holdings merger

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns. Orange cells are present in this deck; neutral cells are not.

Precedents cited

  • CN Rail transformation under Hunter Harrison (template for Canadian Pacific)
  • Rockwood Holdings under Seifi Ghasemi (ROC TSR 320% vs. S&P 106%)
  • BOC industrial gases leadership (Seifi Ghasemi prior tenure)

Slide gallery ·

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Pass-2 extraction may still be in progress for this deck.

Notes

Fund-level annual investor update, not a single-target thesis deck — recaps 2014 performance across the Pershing Square portfolio (Allergan, Herbalife short, CP, APD, Restaurant Brands, Platform, Zoetis, HHC, Beam, P&G, GGP) and documents the October 2014 PSH Euronext IPO that created permanent capital. The Herbalife section is the strongest contrarian-short specimen inside the deck: 'It's a Pyramid Scheme' framing, Chairman's Club member Stephan Gratziani's 'eventual deception' quote used against management, and an annotated 2014 timeline of regulatory catalysts (FTC civil probe, DoJ/FBI, IL/NY AG) overlaid on the 52% price decline. Allergan, CP, and APD sections use annotated timeline price charts linking shareholder events to price moves — a stealable Pershing Square visual convention. SCQA fields left null because fund-level updates lack a single thesis.