Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck follow up
2015-01-29 · 81 pages

Multiple (Pershing Square Holdings portfolio: Allergan, Herbalife, Air Products, Canadian Pacific, Restaurant Brands International, Platform Specialty Products, Zoetis)

N 3 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 2 Craft
Original source ↗

The three reasons

  1. 1

    PSH returned 40.4% net in 2014 vs 13.7% for S&P 500

  2. 2

    Allergan sold to Actavis at $219 — 75% premium to Pershing's entry

  3. 3

    Permanent capital now >1/3 of AUM via PSH London IPO

Primary demands

  • Review 2014 portfolio performance for PSH investors (40.4% net return vs S&P 13.7%)
  • Highlight PSH IPO execution and permanent capital structure (>1/3 of AUM now permanent)
  • Recap portfolio thesis updates: Allergan sale to Actavis, Herbalife pyramid-scheme short, Air Products CEO change, CP transformation, BKW/Tim Hortons merger
  • Reaffirm Herbalife short thesis with new evidence of pyramid structure

KPIs cited

2014 net return (PSH)
40.4% vs S&P 500 at 13.7%
2013 net return (PSH)
9.6% vs S&P 500 at 32.4%
PSH IPO size
$2.8bn raised October 2014; $6.2bn NAV at listing
PSH NAV discount
Trading at average 7.1% discount to NAV since inception
Permanent capital share
36.2% permanent, 46% including GP and affiliates
Allergan exit return
Stock rose 80% incl. dividends from $125 entry to $224 (sale to Actavis at $219)
Canadian Pacific Operating Ratio
64.7% in 2014, third-best in industry; 2018 target 58-63%
Canadian Pacific EPS growth
+32% in 2014; 25%+ guidance for 2015
Canadian Pacific share performance
+384% including dividends since 2011 inception
Air Products share performance
+57% including dividends since May 2013 inception
Restaurant Brands share performance
+72% in 2014; +175% since Justice Holdings merger
Platform Specialty share performance
+69% in 2014; +144% since May 2013 IPO
Herbalife context
HLF +143% including dividends in 2013 (adverse to Pershing short)

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (8)

Notes

Annual LP/PSH investor update covering the entire portfolio rather than a single contrarian campaign. Treated as follow_up since it recaps ongoing theses (Herbalife short, CP, APD, Allergan, RBI) first presented in earlier dedicated decks. Herbalife section (pp. 28-39) is the strongest contrarian content — quotes distributor Stephan Gratziani on 'inauthenticity' and reiterates pyramid-scheme thesis. Allergan section (pp. 22-27) is a victory-lap on the Valeant/Actavis saga. Visual style is Pershing's standard blue/green template — functional, slide headers with evidence bullets, annotated timeline charts; no editorial data-viz. Deck contains many divider/cover pages (blank gray logo pages) inflating page count. Structure: 2014 Fund Performance → PSH IPO → Portfolio Update (by position) → Business/Org Update → Appendix/disclaimers.