Callouts & quotes from 153+ activist slides

""longer works because FD is now a detriment to the combined entity's valuation, 3) management seems unwilling to acknowledge the asset is destroying value, so 4) while the only hope is activism at this point - given management's ongoing hope that FD can rebound - the potential for activism seems low...." — Barclays – August 30, 2018; "Finally, we have also begun to field questions from investors about management's ability to successfully turnaround Family Dollar and whether DLTR would consider other strategic options...we are growing concerned that such a heavy focus of time, capital, and opex is being spent on Family Dollar with little to no fundamental improvement and that it may be better spent on the core Dollar Tree segment." — Goldman Sachs – August 30, 2018; "The market's interest in sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) and a potential break-up clearly indicates that the wheels have come off the Family Dollar bull thesis. This turnaround has stalled much too early and the core business, while producing good top-line, is experiencing margin pressure...Family Dollar a Clear Disappointment: Three years after closing on this turnaround project, comps are weak, the productivity gap to DG is as large as ever, and margins are back-tracking after initial progress. We estimate the value destruction of this deal at $7 billion...We were not fans of this transaction from the start, and it's now clear that DLTR would have been much better off today if they had not done this deal." — Wells Fargo – July 11, 2018; "While very low likelihood, in our view, DLTR could go down the path of multiple price points at Dollar Tree or simply raising the single price point. This could be done with or without the divestiture of Family Dollar stores. While, on paper, we understand the attractiveness of such a move (better comps and profit dollar growth, temporarily) we don't see the current Board or management team as amenable." — Credit Suisse – June 12, 2018; "Family Dollar's performance has disappointed investors – We have been disappointed/frustrated with Family Dollar's progression.... A 10% premium to the market for Dollar Tree implies investors are essentially getting Family Dollar for FREE...In this case, investors have essentially attributed ZERO value to Family Dollar's 8,000 stores, $10 billion of sales and $512mmE of EBIT." — RBC – June 8, 2018; "The Dollar Tree concept has been highly successful, but there remains significant opportunity to unlock value by expanding price points and we see three reasons this catalyst could arrive sooner than expected...Lastly, we believe the moment of truth is here for Family Dollar, and failure to drive a more meaningful comp improvement could leave management searching for another source of growth." — Wells Fargo – May 18, 2018"

"“Now, the integration value [of Speedway] is, I would say, proprietary. I can't give out a number from a competitive reason of that integration value, but I can say it is very significant...” — Gary Heminger, July 28, 2016; “So we look at the integration value [of Speedway]. We look at kind of the dis-synergy if we were to do something different with Speedway, and we still believe that it has a very strong fit in our system.” — Gary Heminger, October 27, 2016; “There have been some questions about a sale of Speedway and we have such a low tax basis in Speedway. We would find that hurdle hard to overcome...” — Gary Heminger, February 14, 2017; “The bottom line is that there is no compelling valuation opportunity in separating our retail business, and that any potential separation will cause loss of integration synergies, additional cash needed to maintain appropriate balance sheet strength, increase volatility in the remaining business, and, we believe, result in long term value disruption.” — Gary Heminger, September 5, 2017; “As part of this exploration process, MPC and Speedway negotiated a potential post-spin supply agreement. Our analysis indicates any supply agreement structured in pursuit of a tax-free spin would be market-based and arm's length. Such a conventional supply agreement would be limited in term and in volume. As a result, the supply agreement only temporarily and partially mitigates the loss of integration synergy, and the synergy value lost beyond the term of an initial supply agreement is substantial. In short, such a transaction, even with the supply agreement, would destroy significant value.” — Gary Heminger, September 5, 2017; “...we completed the very comprehensive review of Speedway and the conclusion, the unanimous conclusion by the board was that Speedway would remain in the vertical integration of MPC.” — Gary Heminger, February 13, 2018"

"“Now, the integration value [of Speedway] is, I would say, proprietary. I can't give out a number from a competitive reason of that integration value, but I can say it is very significant...” — Gary Heminger, July 28, 2016; “So we look at the integration value [of Speedway]. We look at kind of the dis-synergy if we were to do something different with Speedway, and we still believe that it has a very strong fit in our system.” — Gary Heminger, October 27, 2016; “There have been some questions about a sale of Speedway and we have such a low tax basis in Speedway. We would find that hurdle hard to overcome...” — Gary Heminger, February 14, 2017; “The bottom line is that there is no compelling valuation opportunity in separating our retail business, and that any potential separation will cause loss of integration synergies, additional cash needed to maintain appropriate balance sheet strength, increase volatility in the remaining business, and, we believe, result in long term value disruption.” — Gary Heminger, September 5, 2017; “As part of this exploration process, MPC and Speedway negotiated a potential post-spin supply agreement. Our analysis indicates any supply agreement structured in pursuit of a tax-free spin would be market-based and arm's length. Such a conventional supply agreement would be limited in term and in volume. As a result, the supply agreement only temporarily and partially mitigates the loss of integration synergy, and the synergy value lost beyond the term of an initial supply agreement is substantial. In short, such a transaction, even with the supply agreement, would destroy significant value.” — Gary Heminger, September 5, 2017; “...we completed the very comprehensive review of Speedway and the conclusion, the unanimous conclusion by the board was that Speedway would remain in the vertical integration of MPC.” — Gary Heminger, February 13, 2018"

""The company’s ‘string of pearls’ acquisition and partnering strategy are part of what has gained it a more favourable valuation than most of its peers." — Jefferies, January 2012; "We view BMY as the leader in immuno-oncology..." — Goldman Sachs, February 2014; "We believe BMY’s investments in therapeutic areas with significant unmet need position it to become a leader in these areas and to deliver strong growth." — Deutsche Bank, August 2014; "Our DCF-based PO of $58 indicates BMY can trade at roughly 34x our 2015E EPS of $1.73, higher than BMY’s current 2014 multiple and at a significant premium to the US major pharma group average on 2014E, which we believe is warranted due to the potentially higher quality of BMY’s R&D pipeline relative to its peers." — Bank of America, October 2014; "Overall, we continue to see Bristol as a leader in the PD-1 and broader I-O space both in terms of time-to-market and breadth of clinical program." — JP Morgan, December 2014; "We remain bullish on BMY ahead of these upcoming data releases as we see the overall opportunity for immuno-oncology (I-O) in general still being underappreciated by investors while the depth and breadth of BMY’s I-O portfolio leaves them as the clear leader in the space." — Credit Suisse, October 2014; "The portfolio could give upside to another solid growth outlook for BMY and generate much news flow. A management team that has a solid track record of reshaping the business provides additional appeal to this powerful product story." — Cowen, December 2014"

""I gave dozens of... presentations to fleet managers, generated out of XL Link, the onboard telematics system in each vehicle with XL technology. What this report indicates, is either no improvement in MPG, slight improvement in MPG, or a loss of overall MPG. Keep in mind these kits are $25,000 each, add 750 lbs of curb weight, and take up very valuable bed space, and advertise up to 50% improvement. I would highlight their drivers' errors, such as idle time, driving over the ideal speed, and aggressive acceleration habits, just to assign blame elsewhere for no improvement in MPG. I would also falsify their fuel cost per gallon, behind what's visible to the customer, to try and prove some ROI." — XL Former Employee A; "My customers that had the system wanted access to XL Link. But... salespeople had to give them presentations because they tried to pretty it up to avoid, "Hey, you're only getting another mile per gallon and it's not what we promised." They would never let the customer have access to the raw data on that: we had to put it into a presentation to give to them." — Former XL Employee B"

"The prime rate as of today is 5.75%. This rate, therefore, will be the applicable base rate. The risk premium, per Till, will normally fluctuate between 1% and 3%. The appropriate size of the adjustment, per Till, will depend on factors such as the circumstances of the estate, the nature of the security and the duration and feasibility of the reorganization plan. The creditor bears the burden of proof on this issue. In this instance, [the Creditor] has raised certain legitimate questions as to the feasibility of the Debtor's plan; however it has done little to overcome the evidence which indicates both that the Debtor's operations are improving apace, and that the value of Fremont's collateral is appreciating steadily. The Court thus views the risks attendant to the proposed loan as neither negligible nor extreme. Based upon this, the Court will require the addition of a 1.5% risk premium to the aforesaid prime rate for the recast [Creditor] loan. — Opinion of Judge Raslavich, United States Bankruptcy Court, E.D. Pennsylvania, In re Prussia Associates, April 5, 2005"

"No. We should look at the assumptions that go into the DCF valuation on an objective basis. If the assumptions are valid and the DCF indicates that the bulk of the value is coming from Terminal Value, that's just the result of an objective analysis. We shouldn't alter an otherwise objective analysis to satisfy a preconceived notion that Terminal Value should or shouldn't make up more than a certain percentage of the value. — Financial Modeling Course References"

"All five methods for estimating the amount by which Lasertec is fraudulently valuing inventory – and therefore earnings, as well as the magnitude of the impairment charge it is trying to avoid – arrive at roughly the same figure, one that is devastating and indicates the degree to which its stock price has been based on an illusion: an inevitable 65-70% write-down of its $1.1B / ¥162B of inventory as of Mar '24"

"All five methods for estimating the amount by which Lasertec is fraudulently valuing inventory – and therefore earnings, as well as the magnitude of the impairment charge it is trying to avoid – arrive at roughly the same figure, one that is devastating and indicates the degree to which its stock price has been based on an illusion: an inevitable 65-70% write-down of its $1.1B / ¥162B of inventory as of Mar ’24"

""ISS' quantitative analysis indicates that CEO pay significantly outranked peer companies within similar sector and size ranges, while 1- and 3-year TSRs were at or near the bottom ranking of the same peer group. Specifically, relative TSR performance has been at the lower end of the bottom quartile of peers while CEO pay has been in the top quartile." — ISS Proxy Advisory Services, Hess Core Report 2012"

"According to ISS, “Governance QualityScore uses a numeric, decile-based score that indicates a company’s governance risk relative to their index or region. A score in the 1st decile (QS:1) indicates relatively higher quality governance practices and relatively lower governance risk, and, conversely, a score in the 10th decile (QS:10) indicates relatively higher governance risk.” — ISS"

""The Authority's examination into Frontier's construction of its fiberoptic network, particularly with respect to underground installations in the public right-of-way, indicates that Frontier and its contractors have systematically failed to comply with applicable laws and, in doing so, have jeopardized the public safety." — CT Public Utilities Regulatory Authority"

"A 5.8 point reduction is well within what common sense indicates is the margin of error in a crude survey like ESS – the reduction is equal to a patient self-reporting that they went from a “high chance” of “dozing” to a “slight chance” in 3 of 8 settings, with still a high chance in each of the other 5 settings like “sitting and reading” or “watching TV.”"

"Mailchimp was supposed to create yet another entry point for QuickBooks to penetrate larger mid-market customers. However, a former employee clearly indicates that Mailchimp suffered a similar churn issue as QuickBooks: the product might be OK when starting out, but customers tend to churn as soon as their needs become a little more sophisticated."

"Despite Heska’s efforts to paint a picture of a transformed company, we believe the evidence (including SEC filings, supplier contracts, legal discovery, reported financials, R&D spend, capital investment, business practices, and actual product shipping in the market) indicates that Heska’s business has changed very little, if at all."

"The industry go-to source PCT recently conducted a poll which indicates that 25% of the industry is now using door-to-door sales. Moreover, in 2021 an article indicated there were 7,000 door-to-door salespeople. Making some modest assumptions indicates at a minimum, 140 million doors could be knocked on by pest salespeople per year."

"Given the totality of our forensic research that indicates Zebra's business is under rising pressures from Chinese competition, diminished returns on R&D and innovation, and poorly timed and levered acquisitions that aren't paying off as planned, we are puzzled as to why Zebra's valuation multiple has been expanding."

"One of the most serious issues – which came up repeatedly in our interviews – is livers becoming necrotic on the device, a known risk specific to normothermic perfusion machines like TransMedics but which our research indicates is far more widespread than known – with surgeons alleging a cover-up by the company."

"Harmony 1 trial paper, published 2013 in The Lancet – pitolisant was inferior to modafinil on the primary endpoint of excessive daytime sleepiness as measured by Epworth Sleepiness Scale; final ESS score in pitolisant arm still indicates excessive sleepiness; also inferior on cataplexy reduction — The Lancet"

"As this was a single dose, the steady state level after 7 days (with an accumulation ratio 2.3) is 122 ng/mL +/- 54 ng/mL, far higher than both the 73 ng/mL on the label and the 101 ng/mL in the 2007 pilot study - and indicates patients with 230 ng/mL and 284 ng/mL within two and three standard deviations."

"Poor Controls over Equity Grants: That the board did not become aware until several years after the fact that multiple grants to the CEO were in violation of the Company's incentive plans indicates that it did not have adequate controls in place to monitor the Company's executive compensation practices."

"We find this particularly brazen, as Kalo was only formed 2 weeks earlier as an entity, according to its Massachusetts corporate registry filing, which further indicates that the entity’s “Principal Offices” are Ginkgo’s headquarters, and its 3 ‘Managers’ are Ginkgo’s CEO and two Ginkgo cronies."

"The CLO servicing report for the three CLOs show a total of $1.9 billion of loans that are on the "watchlist" at "6A", which means "Any Other Situation that Indicates an Increased Level of Default Risk that may Create Potential Material Losses to Investors (Lesser of 10% of UPB or $500,000)""

"The substantial $35.8 million gap between these positive contributors and the minimal increase in overall guidance strongly indicates that Tempus's fundamental genomics and data segments are significantly underperforming compared to expectations established just months earlier in February."

"Our research indicates that Biotech Labs has not received the requisite USDA licenses to sell its products in the U.S. This is confirmed by the LinkedIn company description of one of its foreign distributors, Biotech Diagnostics, Maryland-domiciled entity that raises additional questions."

"The Company's opposition to Proposal 6 indicates that its current Board does not truly wish to have all Phillips 66 directors elected annually, and that it would instead prefer to continue enjoying the protections that a staggered Board provides against shareholder accountability."

"We are short UFP Technologies (UFPT), which specializes in producing single-use drapes, because our research indicates that their largest customer, Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), —who controls 57% of surgical robot systems—is gutting UFPT by insourcing and buying from a competitor."

"To further emphasize its size advantage versus competitors, IonQ adds other pictures for the avoidance of doubt. Its presentation indicates that its ion trap and vacuum chamber package is only 2 inches wide, versus IBM and Google’s hardware at 6 feet and 20 feet, respectively."

"An investor spoke with FTAI. FTAI confirmed that the new language indicates that the test to report Aerospace Products income on the Operating or Investing side of the Cash Flow Statement is determined by the amount of capitalized costs to the assets while held in Inventory."

"In Q4'23, management disclosed Enhanced Markets (Flex only) is expanding from nine (9) markets to forty (40) in 2024. Spruce Point's research indicates the Flex model is in virtually every major town/city across the U.S. which we assume sits side-by-side with the MBP model."

"At best, Archer is where Joby was a full two years ago. This is generous, as it at that time, Joby had reported 15% completion but had a larger fleet and evidence indicates they had done more R&D and amassed far more flight hours and miles flown than Archer has at present."

"Assuming 75% of G&A is allocated to the Real Estate and Franchise business, an allocation that McDonald's management indicates is conservative, we indicate below the EBITDA for McOpCo and the Real Estate and Franchise businesses, as depicted in the reported financials."

"Shareholders question operating controls as recent executive compensation leaves more questions than answers: [R]ecent disclosure indicates the CEO was erroneously overpaid and the error led to a $10MM cash bonus in 2014. — Jonathan Bock, Wells Fargo Research 11/5/2015"

"Amgen employee #2 (cont’d) indicates BLI is “probably not” worth buying for single-cell analysis; competing machines are “a small fraction of the cost” with better use cases versus BLI’s complexity; and that the TAM for BLI is a “pretty limited number” of systems."

"At a minimum, this indicates that iHub has not been driving accelerated cost savings since inception. Furthermore, this savings doesn't reconcile with another claim made by the CEO that iHub contributed 40% (or approximately $25m of 2022 EBITDA contribution)."

"Muddy Waters’s proprietary (engineered in-house) stochastic probability-based China dynamic matrix decision making application indicates that, within the 95% confidence interval, such request would have been met with a response of “F—k you.” — Footnote 27"

"Parcel information corresponding to this location indicates that in 2017 at the time of the transaction, the total estimated market value is $309,000, which is much more in-line with the implied property value calculated using deed tax amounts."

"We identified a variance in employees reported between the 2025 Annual Report and 20-F which were filed at the SEC just two weeks apart. Both figures reference FY 2025 (ending June 30th). The 20-F indicates 35% more employees or 70 vs. 52."

"Comments by current Joyn employees and ex-Ginkgo employees indicates that Ginkgo and its related parties are intermingled; that the relationship is anything but arms-length; and resembles nothing like a typical vendor-customer arrangement"

"Our Analysis of Historical Compensation Indicates CTO Never Would Have Hit Its Threshold for Bonuses If It Had Included Recurring Capex in Its AFFO. Management Has Inflated Its $8 Million Performance Bonuses With Its Made-Up AFFO Metric"

"PERI made a suspicious change to its disclosures of rented servers. In the recently filed 20-F, it changed its historical disclosure from "approximately 1,000" to "thousands" which indicates a multiplicative increase of server rentals."

"APPS CEO claims to have neither the means nor desire to look at other companies' user data, but the evidence in its code indicates the opposite – APP has the means and is engaging in collecting 3P platforms data to construct its PIGs."

"Marvell, another major player, was just as skeptical, sharing color which was damning and indicates that Lasertec’s inventory is worthless and that the A300 is simply a ruse to swap out defective A150’s while disguising it as “growth”"

"The 127.0.0.1 address indicates that a bot, or YY controlled entity was sending transactions from the server itself. This is highly unusual as real users on YY Live are in their own homes, offices, or in public, not on the YY server."

"Put simply, data collected over months directly from BEKE's platform strongly indicates that the Company is massively exaggerating new home GTV and revenue from its platform, a pattern we also see when we analyze existing home sales."

"Colin Whitehouse is listed as the Chairman of CSC. However, Mr. Whitehouse’s LinkedIn page indicates that Mr. Whitehouse is a non-executive chairman of CSC and that he apparently does not even work at the joint venture full-time."

"It seems Zillow's management believes Flex and MBP can coexist in the same markets. We believe Zillow is walking a very fine line and our research indicates that it will be difficult for the two models to coexist in the long run."

"TSMC indicates KLA DUV tools have superior economics, productivity, and throughput vs. Lasertec; using DUV inspection now vs EUV in production; TSMC has basically switched from Lasertec to KLA; “KLA’s share continues to increase”"

"No. Although independent verification reports in China and toilet paper are often intended to hold the same substance, our research indicates that investors are much better off sticking with 2-4 ply toilet paper in the bathroom."

"But it indicates his playbook, which we encourage investors to note, as they gauge the veracity of his claims regarding Nevro's supposed safety, efficacy, and lack of explants, particularly next week at the JP Morgan conference."

"The least squared trendline in figure 1 indicates that the statistically expected outcome for the stock of a suing company is a valuation decline of 80% against the index over the next 6 years (2,192 days) after the publication."

"A review of large REITs indicates that these businesses support investment grade ratings with a debt to enterprise value of 36% on average, as compared to Pro Forma McDonald's which would have a debt to enterprise value of 25%."

"Common sense indicates that if a company has already spent $73MM to outfit a “Factory of the Future” with “laboratory property, equipment, and computers,” the promotional page for it in its investor presentation would show it."

"Red flag 1: QS once again resorts to tricks and gimmicks, some buried in the fine print, which indicates that its 3x3cm prototype was actually charged at a sizzling 30 °C (86 °F) and only then discharged at a low temperature."

"Advertising impressions drive revenues for DV. Recent commentary from key players driving digital advertising indicates overall weakness of digital advertising, but strength in foreign markets were DV is poorly positioned."

"For example, LinkedIn indicates only 6 employees at Allonnia LLC, yet Ginkgo records a $38MM deferred revenue balance, on top of booking $5MM of revenue from Allonnia in 2020 and $2.3MM in Q1 2021 – a $9MM annual run rate."

"Our report only indicates that the evidence collected through this outreach solely suggests that certain local hotels were willing to knowingly offer accommodation in ways that could materially facilitate illegal conduct."

"While this is not evidence of malfeasance, in our opinion, it indicates massive amounts of Related Party Receivables and Payables are netted routinely in Eurofins, and the system for tracking them seems far from perfect."

"The local host IP, 127.0.0.1, suddenly emerged in Killing Time’s gifting pattern, which we believe indicates an accidental leak, perhaps caused by a temporary glitch in the software used to mask the user’s real origin."

"Data indicates that neither GSX nor Gaotu have been trending above most of the private online education platforms in the last 4 years, nor has their popularity risen much recently compared to their private competitors."