"Spruce Point believes that Momo's cost of revenues will increase to match competitors at 50%-70%. This equates to a potential 40%-50% increase in cost of revenues"
Callouts & quotes from 1,508+ activist slides
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"Leidos ceased explaining what drove the increase in deferred revenues in the past two 10-Qs, and changed its explanation for the increase in unbilled receivables."
"Spruce Point observes an alarming departure between revenue growth and inventory growth, which is often a harbinger of material margin compression in the future."
"This convoluted structure, involving related parties and non-cash consideration, raises serious questions about the authenticity of reported revenue and backlog."
"While Samsara has historically disclosed that "98%+ of revenue is "subscription", about a quarter of that is essentially installment sales of commodity hardware."
"Prior to COVID-19 pandemic, Wall Street analysts believed 2020 revenue could be less than that achieved nearly five years ago, despite strong industry tailwinds!"
"Total revenues do not explicitly exclude related-party revenues through entities the CEO has an interest in. These have historically amounted to ~2.5% of revenue"
"In fact, we show that, after adjusting for Mailchimp's estimated international revenue, Intuit's international revenue has grown at just a 1% CAGR since FY 2022."
"We believe the best valuation comparable to Porch is The Active Network, which was acquired by Vista Equity in 2013 for $1.05bn, or approximately 2x EV/Revenues."
"Why is revenue growth “the most significant driver of business performance” when ill-advised M&A could destroy (and has destroyed) significant shareholder value?"
"Exploiting individual patients are sources of recurring implant revenue is so prevalent that one KOL described stimulators as simply “a lease that you trade in.”"
"The purpose of the jets, at face value, is disingenuous: the company is a one-trick pony in liver, with liver at 73% of total revenue in the most recent quarter."
"Incremental revenues from L4 represented at least 3.9% (not 1% to 2%) and probably closer to 5% as our work suggests that L4 was likely growing over 20% per year"
"Spruce Point has serious concerns with Enfusion's description of Platform Revenue drivers in 2022. A major discrepancy occurs with the implied impact from Q4'22."
"Combining our estimates of cash collections per paying member per year with estimated member churn yields a nine-year payback period for EHTH’s booked revenues."
"As a result, rather than earning money from YY gifts, the Xiaozhou group of accounts paid out a net RMB 8.5 million while YY booked RMB 17.2 million of revenue."
"Spruce Point finds that Saputo's total environmental costs are surging from $4.6 to $64 million (0.04% to 0.37% of revenues) from 2017 – 2023, or a CAGR of 55%."
"DoorDash, TASK's second largest client, has seen 9M 2021 revenue grow 41% over the comparable 9M 2020 period. Receivables have grown largely in-line at 46% YTD."
"The balance sheet shows strong evidence to suggest channel stuffing. Inventories ballooned to a record THB 28.4m while receivables growth far outpaced revenues."
"We believe the company is hiding a flawed business model with abysmally small revenue potential behind a façade of big-name announcements and lofty projections."
"From 2009 to 2012, Tessera's revenue declined 21.8% while total operating expenses actually increased 40.7% resulting in a massive decline in operating income."
"We Believe PowerSchool’s Revenue And Adjusted Financials Are Inflated By Aggressive Accounting Practices And That It Is Materially More Levered Than It Appears"
"To counter revenue pressure, Fixed-Satellite Service (FSS) operators have started to aggressively cut capex and will likely make additional cuts going forward."
"We believe the 85.9% gap between the RMB 156.3 million in revenue in the credit bureau reports and YY's claimed RMB 1.1 billion is suggestive of massive fraud."
"Spruce Point estimates that WSP's 2023 net order intake relative to acquired run-rate revenues looks even weaker at 83% vs. 91% for the deals acquired in 2022."
"Spruce Point believes Zebra's venture investments and some of its immaterial revenue acquisitions should be considered operating costs for analytical purposes."
"We believe this is an improper method of accounting for these dual memberships which allows IQ to inflate its revenues and burn off fake cash at the same time."
"Uber is a high-quality business which is positioned for rapid earnings growth over the medium-term based on strong revenue growth and robust operating leverage"
"The effect of EEGs on the bottom line is very important because, like any trading company, Olam generates substantial amounts of revenue with very low margins."
"A senior executive in the space indicated that Saluda will launch shortly and take 3 to 5 points of Nevro's current 15-17% share – or ~18-33% of their revenue."
"We Believe that Over Half of the Buses on which CCME has Placed Screens do not Actually Show CCME's Content, which Makes CCME's Revenue Claims More Outlandish."
"Uber is a high-quality business which is positioned for rapid earnings growth over the medium-term based on strong revenue growth and robust operating leverage"
"Signs that this is not an AI company are everywhere. 96% of INOD's workforce is overseas and its average employee generates less than $20k of revenue annually."
"Coincident with our concerns about financial reporting quality, we observe that Enfusion also made changes to its language around revenue recognition policies."
""Currency headwinds" and "declines in revenues" only account for 22% of the offsets — the full "cost savings" were in reality offset by ~$556M of "cost creep""
"We are short Skillz, Inc. (Nasdaq: SKLZ) because its top games appear to be stagnant to declining, leading us to believe its revenue projections are farcical."
"The notion that a decade from now, universities are going to be paying half or two-thirds of their revenue for some marketing and tech services is ridiculous."
"At least Intuit discloses QuickBooks revenue, which is more than we can say for the NINE other revenue streams that comprise the SBSE “services” sub-segments."
"And because Core’s business is tied to this, its revenue held up in the down-cycle and then grew in the recovery right along with capex outside North America."
"EHTH's overstatement of future commissions booked as upfront revenue by approximately $128 million, detailed above, means that sales are exaggerated by 33.8%."
"With organic revenue growth consistently disappointing and pressures intensifying, there is no basis to project revenue growth will miraculously change course"
"We estimate Oribe's revenue to be roughly half their size, Oribe could match these figures and more through expanded marketing and distribution beyond salons."
"The last step in calculating monthly utilization (number of PhenoTests per month per system) is dividing estimated reagent revenue by functional system-month."
"Tough questions aren't often asked when companies can put up accelerating double digit revenue growth while delivering stable margin expansion along the way."
"MSCI quickly marked down total RCA clients from 2,000 to 1,600 but claimed that it had a high retention rate and that revenue should be considered recurring."
"Spruce Point is concerned by the large line item called “eliminations and corporate” with more than $1.1 billion of revenues and 57% of gross assets removed."
"Why is all of this significant? Because the revenue recognition policy now allows TFS to recognise sales to the unit trust before contracts are entered into!"
"How is it possible that Amcor cannot correctly account for Bemis’ revenue? In addition, we observe that Amcor is now increasing EBIT contribution from Bemis."
"We believe management loses credibility when tossing out outlandish numbers such as $20 billion of revenue per year while falling wildly short of its target."
"Spruce Point believes the need for cost driven mergers, rather than revenue driven synergies, is a bearish sign of the competitive pressure in the industry."
"Spruce Point finds that WSP's working capital to LTM gross revenues has been on a steady increase which we believe is a sign of increasing financial strain."
"Zebra made an unusual change to its organic revenue reporting at the end of 2019 which management did not draw attention to on the year end conference call."
"Morgan Stanley’s Inpatient forecast assumes athena launches a new revenue cycle management service in 2017 that will reach $2.5 billion of revenues by 2030."
"Timken’s Bearings Sales growth over the last five years is virtually identical to SKF’s, implying that the revenue synergies from integration are negligible"
"It appears that LSPD loosened its revenue recognition policies post IPO to allow for recognition "on the date the services are made available to customers"."
"GoDaddy trades at an almost 40% discount to this broader set of technology companies with a similar revenue growth profile and a high recurring revenue mix."
"Despite foreign exchange revenue impact of approximately -10%1 since inception, ZTS has increased 49% from when we purchased our first shares in July 20162"
"Spruce Point cannot reconcile the 2021 operating revenue bridge, as displayed in the year end investor presentation, with the disclosures made in the 10-K."
"Among the 60 companies in the S&P North American Technology Software Index (IGV), Commvault, a member of this index, has the third-lowest revenue multiple."
"More recent IPX press releases also do not appear to have gained much traction or converted to committed customer contracts that have produced revenue yet."