Multiple (portfolio-level LP update: MDLZ, APD, ZTS, QSR, CP, HHC, VRX, PAH, NOMD, HLF short)
The three reasons
- 1
Mondelez 13% EBIT margin vs 17-26% peers implies +600-700 bps optimized EBIT upside under 3G playbook
- 2
Valeant is stabilizable: new CEO Papa, board refresh, ad-hoc review complete — 83% drawdown overshoots fundamentals
- 3
Herbalife pyramid has stopped growing, top 1% capture 89% of earnings, FTC action appears forthcoming
Primary demands
- Mondelez: adopt 3G-style zero-based budgeting to close margin gap vs packaged food peers
- Valeant: install new CEO (Joe Papa), refresh board, stabilize company after 83% decline
- Herbalife: FTC action to shut down alleged pyramid scheme
- Zoetis: continue cost-structure initiative to lift operating margin 25% (2014) to ~34% (2017)
KPIs cited
Pattern membership
Precedents cited
- Heinz under 3G: +600 bps consolidated gross margin and +1,100 bps Europe in 2 years
- Anheuser-Busch under 3G/InBev: +1,300 bps EBIT margin in 3 years
- Perrigo under Joe Papa: 24% annualized shareholder return
- Vemma FTC complaint as road-map for Herbalife enforcement
- CN transformation under Hunter Harrison (implicit via CP operating-ratio comp)
Composition what's on the 82 slides
Slide gallery ·
Notes
Pershing Square's 2016 European Investor Meeting — a fund-level LP update covering the entire portfolio rather than a single-target thesis. Structure: Q1 2016 performance (-25.6%, worst quarter in fund history), then per-position recaps on MDLZ, APD, ZTS, QSR, CP, HHC, VRX, PAH, NOMD (longs) and HLF (short), followed by PSH capital-structure/NAV update and team update (Paul Hilal departure). Each position gets 3-8 slides with bull case + annotated share-price chart. Herbalife section (pp. 61-69) is the most polemical — uses Michael Johnson 2005 retreat video quote ('recruiting ... most vital part of our bloodstream') as contradiction to retail-sales defense, cites Vemma FTC complaint as road-map, and shows pyramid-growth flatlining + 89%-of-earnings-to-top-1% concentration. Mondelez section (pp. 11-21) is the strongest peer-gap argument: 10-peer EBIT margin bar chart (p. 14) and Heinz/AB-InBev 3G case studies (p. 16, p. 18). Valeant section (pp. 44-50) is de facto crisis-management communication post March 15 collapse rather than a thesis pitch. Campaign phase = follow_up because most positions are multi-year follow-ons, not initial theses. Visuals are standard institutional Pershing template (blue headers, simple tables and bar charts) — clean but not editorial-tier; no novel craft worth swiping.