Uber Technologies UBER
Uber is a high-quality, network-effect marketplace trading at 29x due to overblown AV fears; 30%+ EPS growth should more than double the stock in 3-4 years.
Thesis
Pershing Square has initiated a new long position in Uber at ~$79/share and a $168bn market cap, arguing the market has unfairly punished the stock over autonomous-vehicle fears. Uber is the world's leading rideshare and delivery marketplace with 170mm monthly customers and 8mm drivers across 70 countries, generating ~$160bn in gross bookings split between mobility and Uber Eats, with international now over half. Management under Dara Khosrowshahi has driven Adjusted EBITDA from ($0.8bn) in 2021 to $6.5bn in 2024, with guidance for high-30s to 40% CAGR toward a 7% long-term margin and +30% annual EPS growth. Yet shares trade at 29x while consensus EPS has risen more than 50% over the past year. Pershing argues AV risk is overstated — 14 existing AV partners, courier-dependent delivery, international dominance, and a low 20% take-rate make partnering with Uber economically rational — and expects the stock to more than double in 3-4 years.
SCQA
Uber is the world's leading rideshare and delivery marketplace — 170mm monthly customers, 8mm drivers, 70 countries, ~$160bn of gross bookings — with powerful two-sided network effects and improving operating leverage under Dara Khosrowshahi.
Despite +30% EPS growth guidance and EBITDA compounding at a high-30s-to-40% CAGR, Uber trades at just 29x earnings because the market fears autonomous vehicles will displace its mobility business over time.
Buy Uber — AV risk is limited by courier-dependent delivery, dominant international mobility, a low 20% take-rate, and 14 existing AV partnerships that make partnering with Uber more rational than replicating it.
As AV-overhang fades and margins expand toward the 7% long-term target, Pershing Square expects Uber's share price to more than double from $79 over the next 3 to 4 years.
The three reasons
- 1
Uber trades at 29x earnings despite 30%+ EPS growth — a low multiple for its profile
- 2
EBITDA margin 4% today vs. 7% long-term target, with high-30s to 40% CAGR guidance
- 3
AV risk overblown: 14 AV partners, delivery ~50%, international >50% insulate Uber
KPIs cited
Pattern membership
Composition what's on the 5 slides
Slide gallery ·
Notes
Excerpt from Pershing Square's Feb 2025 annual investor presentation (footer pages 67-71), disclosing a new long Uber position. Atypical for a contrarian-activist corpus: Pershing is long-biased and explicitly praises CEO Dara Khosrowshahi as 'industry-leading' — no activism, no board demands, no villain. Thesis is classic undervaluation + multiple rerating: the market is mispricing AV risk on a 30%+ EPS grower. closing_ask set to null because this is an LP-facing fund update, not a campaign deck with a shareholder call-to-action. presentation_date set to 2025-02-01 as a month-level placeholder; exact day is not printed on the excerpted pages. PDF is watermarked 'www.10XEBITDA.com', indicating it was sourced via that third-party site rather than Pershing Square directly. Notable slides: p1 (thesis summary card with key stats), p3 (EBITDA bridge with 'Management Guidance: High 30s% to 40% CAGR' annotation arrow), p4 (share price vs. forward-EPS divergence chart — the core multiple-compression visual).