Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck initial thesis
2025-02-01 · 5 pages

Uber Technologies UBER

N 3 Narrative
V 4 Visual
C 3 Craft
Original source ↗

The three reasons

  1. 1

    29x P/E understates a 30%+ EPS grower; share price likely to more than double in 3-4 years

  2. 2

    AV threat is overstated: delivery plus international mobility already >50% of bookings

  3. 3

    Fixed-cost operating leverage (3% headcount growth vs. 20% bookings CAGR) drives margin expansion

KPIs cited

Stock price
$79 at time of presentation
Market capitalization
$168bn
Forward P/E
29x earnings per share
Monthly customers
170mm across 70 countries
Drivers
8mm
Gross bookings
~$160bn, split mobility and delivery
EPS growth target
+30% annual over several years (management target)
Adj. EBITDA margin (% of gross bookings)
4% in 2024A vs. ~7% long-term target; high 30s-40% CAGR management guidance
Adj. EBITDA trajectory
($0.8)bn 2021A -> $1.7bn 2022A -> $4.1bn 2023A -> $6.5bn 2025E
Share price since Feb 2024 Investor Update
-3% while forward consensus EPS rose >50%
AV partnerships
14 AV partners across mobility, delivery, freight
Uber take-rate
~20% per ride
Rideshare penetration of total annual miles
<1%

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (5)

Notes

Excerpt from a larger Pershing Square presentation (internal page numbers 67-71), likely the Feb 2025 annual investor update where Ackman disclosed the new Uber position. This is a LONG thesis, not a traditional activist campaign: no board demands, no CEO criticism (Dara Khosrowshahi is praised for 'vastly improved operational discipline'). Core SCQA: market fears AV disruption (Situation/Complication) so trades Uber at 29x despite 30% EPS growth (Question); Pershing argues AV risk is limited and margin expansion intact (Answer). Watermarked 'www.10xEBITDA.com' indicates the PDF was sourced from that third-party site, not Pershing directly. No peer-gap chart, no sum-of-parts - thesis rests on multiple re-rating plus management's own EPS guidance.