"Based on cumulative income inflation estimates, we adjust Moody's key leverage ratio, Tangible Common Equity to Tangible Managed Assets, from 36.7% to 29.4%."
Callouts & quotes from 709+ activist slides
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"FTAI has wide latitude to estimate residual values, giving it the benefit of potentially moving equipment to Inventory with artificially low carrying values"
"BOL has likely been misunderstood because the complexity of its structure makes it infeasible to use Excel to estimate the percentage of circular ownership."
"We estimate that the option to switch to in-house printing presents the average Diamond Plus Align customer with a $400K per year cost savings opportunity."
"Analysts have poorly forecasted USCR's financial results, which we believe lowers their credibility in valuing the Company. Estimates continue to contract."
"We think AGO should publicly disclose the calculations so we can better judge whether AGO is using higher internal credit ratings to underestimate losses."
"Oasis estimates revenue from Curél to be around USD 285 – 430 mn, mostly concentrated in Japan and Asia with minimal presence in Europe, and the Americas."
"We underestimated the problems created by prior management, both in our initial diligence and in the impact of actions required to effectuate a turnaround"
"We estimate by depreciating trucks too slowly, USCR is understating depreciation by approximately $12.5 million, thereby benefiting EPS by $0.51 cents (1)"
"we felt it was worth showing that simply using realistic estimates, Inspire's best-case TAM falls by ~80%, to 104,125 units versus their claim of 500,000."
"Factoring in an additional 1.1m warrants, Diluted EPS would have been $0.34 and made its Q4'18 and full year earnings miss vs. Street estimates even worse"
"However, as we pointed out, we have serious concerns with Nova's consulting geologist and believe the resource estimates should be viewed with skepticism."
"Excluding Music sales, Superstores same store sales (“SSS”) trends have averaged 1.5% more than average reported comparable sales, based on our estimates"
"We estimate that from FY14 through FY16, Huishan booked CapEx of RMB 89 million per dairy farm; FY16 CapEx appears to have ballooned to RMB 107 million."
"A classic example of earnings management is when management over-estimates expenses, and claims great performance when results are better than expected."
"Despite the estimated massive losses in Display, AOL appears solely focused on continuing to pursue its high-cost, value-destroying status quo strategy."
"While we recognize these values to be estimates, the order of magnitude relative to previous cost assumptions from 2022 and our own estimates are high."
"Analysts' estimates of the value of Filmed Entertainment is generally in line with the fully-distributed enterprise valuation of $15.0 - $16.5 billion."
"Starbucks plans to nearly double its units in China over the four years, and estimates that China will ultimately surpass the size of the U.S. business"
"I estimate households have about $7 trillion in exposure to short-term interest rates, so a 1% change in rates adds about $70 billion to annual income."
"HASI purchased its 49% equity stake for just $10,000, yet we estimate that it booked 2021 non-cash, unrealizable gains of $34.8 million from Vivint 3."
"We estimate that, on a per-patient-per-day basis, Dexcom spends 59% more to produce the G6 system than Abbott will generate in revenue on the Libre 2."
"We estimate that the true number of shares outstanding is only 42.8% of what BOL reports. BOL’s shares present a unique corporate structure arbitrage."
"If Bristol-Myers hits Wall Street analysts’ estimates, rather than the Company’s aggressive base case assumptions, the deal will be value destructive"
"If Bristol-Myers hits Wall Street analysts’ estimates, rather than the Company’s aggressive base case assumptions, the deal will be value destructive"
"It is estimated that with these adjustments to the SOTP values of the research analysts, TWX shares have an implied value as high as $22.01 - $26.97."
"Street estimates for ACMR's Chinese equipment peers call for continued 30%+ YoY revenue growth. If anything, this suggests potential upside for ACMR."
"We estimate that the probability of making $178,000 per year, the average income suggested by Herbalife’s published testimonials, is about 1-in-5000."
"We estimate that the probability of making $178,000 per year, the average income suggested by Herbalife’s published testimonials, is about 1-in-5000."
"We estimate 40% - 50% downside risk ($110 - $132 per share) as Generac’s financial situation deteriorates and lofty analyst expectations are missed."
"Ancora estimates the combined company will have improved EBITDA margins and free cash flow generation which should lead to a re-rating in valuation."
"None of this changes the fact that Oklo's cost estimate for the initial core of fuel for their reactor design is too low by a factor of 5x or more."
"Therefore, we believe iKentoo had very little growth from 2017-2019, and we estimate its ARPU was $100 per month, or 50% below LSPD's ARPU of $200."
"Assuming an implied purchase price of ~$30 billion, we estimate pipeline products will need to generate ~$15 billion of revenue to be NPV neutral!"
"Based on a global peer benchmarking analysis in the dairy industry, we estimate Saputo spends the least amount of its revenue on R&D expenditures."
"In a majority of the cases, the share price has met or exceeded our downside estimate of intrinsic value. The average share price decline is 57%."
"The range of implied recoveries generate a net present value loss between $2.7 billion to $4.5 billion, with a midpoint estimate of $3.6 billion."
"Spruce Point finds a large deviation between our estimated ending gross PP&E and actual PP&E in 2023 which is the period the auditor was changed."
"Spruce Point estimates that Porch has a maximum potential liability associated with financial guarantees made to home inspectors of $1.1 billion."
"The net effect of this extra year of customer life on the books is that we estimate EHTH’s constrained LTV for MA members is overstated by 28.2%."
"One estimated that 25-50% of Nevro’s revenue comes from surgery centers pushing patients into "one stimulator and then another and then another.""
"Wall Street analysts estimated Adjusted EBITDA would be 30% BELOW the Company's initial 2018 Investor Day target even before the global pandemic."
"The reference range of $39.5 - $43.5 billion (12.2x - 13.4x 2006PF OIBDA) is at the high end of the range of Wall Street estimates for Networks."
"We estimate that the Rosie EMI accounted for approximately 12% of our ~$300 million estimate of HASI’s 2021 non-cash, unrealizable HLBV income."
"The magnitude of the "discount" at TWX, as estimated by various research analysts, is approximately 10% - 15% of the gross equity value of TWX."
"We believe the long-term risk from AVs is limited and estimate that Uber’s share price is likely to more than double over the next 3 to 4 years"
"Consumables revenue of $3.9MM divided by 92 machines in the field yields $43K of consumable revenue per machine – or 2-3 runs, by our estimate."
"By funding itself with 80% equity, we estimate the Company loses approximately $105 million annually or $286,540 per day of shareholders' money"
"If met coal prices went to $300, Teck would generate over $1 billion Canadian dollars of incremental EBITDA each quarter vs. analyst estimates."
"We believe the long-term risk from AVs is limited and estimate that Uber’s share price is likely to more than double over the next 3 to 4 years"
"At McDonald's current price of approximately $33 per share, we estimate Pro Forma McDonald's dividend / FCF yield would be approximately 6.7%."
"We estimate 50% to 70% upside in Amcor shares as the combined company executes on synergies and the acquisition integration comes to fruition."
"TWX does not break down revenues by business line within Filmed Entertainment, however, an estimate of the division's revenues are as follows:"
"These are our estimates, and we acknowledge that for 2026, we are 30-40% higher than consensus, which we think is justified based on our work."
"We estimate $661m of costs have been capitalized in software since 2007, yet only $217m has gone through the income statement as amortization."
"We estimate $661m of costs have been capitalized in software since 2007, yet only $217m has gone through the income statement as amortization."
"We believe management's plan is achievable, and the ARPU tailwind from Pulse will lead to ADT exceeding revenue and profit estimates over time"
"Based on our estimates, private-pay Independent Living (IL), Assisted Living (AL) and Memory Care units trade at implied 5.00%-5.50% cap rates"
"Valued at 8x its estimated peak earnings contribution, Valeant's late-stage pipeline, excluding Salix, may be worth as much as ~$40 per share"
"We believe EBITDA is the incorrect metric for the Company and estimated customer value is calculated with numerous unpredictable assumptions."