Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck follow up
2022-02-11 · 68 pages

Pershing Square Holdings (fund portfolio) PSH

The three reasons

  1. 1

    PSH delivered 26.9% NAV return in 2021 and 50.1% 3-year CAGR, beating most major indices

  2. 2

    Asymmetric rate-swaption hedge generated $1.4bn (7.4x premium) and funded the new Netflix position

  3. 3

    PSH still trades at a 28.3% discount to NAV despite a transparent, liquid portfolio of high-quality compounders

KPIs cited

PSH 2021 NAV return
26.9% net of fees vs S&P 500 28.7%, FTSE 100 17.4%, HFRX Activist 19.8%
PSH 3-year annualized NAV return
50.1% vs S&P 500 26.0% and HFRX Activist 17.7%
PSH share price discount to NAV
Widened from 23.0% at start of 2021 to 28.3% at year-end
Total debt to total assets
22.3% as of 2/8/2022; debt covered ~4.5x by assets
Interest-rate swaption hedge return
$188mm premium produced $1.4bn proceeds (7.4x multiple of capital)
COVID-19 CDS hedge return
$27mm premium produced $2.6bn (96.3x multiple of capital)
Subprime MBIA CDS hedge return
$64mm into $1.2bn, 18.5x multiple of capital
Average monthly return in down months
PSLP/PSH -1.7% vs S&P 500 -3.7% since 2004
Netflix position
3.1mm shares acquired Jan 2022 at avg $395
UMG share price vs cost
Up 37% incl. dividends from inception cost of €18.27 to 12/31/2021
Chipotle same-store sales growth 2021
+19% (+21% vs 2019)
Insider capital
$3.7bn / 27% of total firm equity AUM

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns. Orange cells are present in this deck; neutral cells are not.

Precedents cited

  • MBIA / bond-insurer CDS hedge (2005-2009 subprime crisis, 18.5x multiple)
  • Index CDS hedge (COVID-19 2020, 96.3x multiple)

Composition what's on the 68 slides

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Notes

Fund-level annual investor presentation for Pershing Square Holdings (the publicly listed closed-end vehicle), not a single-target activist campaign deck — hence thesis_one_liner / thesis_summary / SCQA / closing_ask are null per guidance. Reviews 2021 PSH performance, debt strategy, discount-to-NAV initiatives, the failed PSTH/UMG SPAC transaction and SPARC follow-on, the macro interest-rate hedge program, and one-page thesis recaps for each portfolio holding (UMG, Netflix, Lowe's, Hilton, Chipotle, Domino's). Firm-branded with no explicit signatory; author_name left null. Standout craft moments: annotated PSH leverage timeline (p10), UMG investment-thesis pyramid (p25), interest-rate three-panel teaser (p34), hedging track-record table comparing three crisis trades (p36), and the NFLX entry chart with timestamped annotations (p37). Standard PSH institutional template — competent, navy/blue palette, banded section headers — not at the editorial-craft tier of the 2012 Canadian Pacific or 2017 ADP decks.