Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck follow up
2015-01-29 · 81 pages

Pershing Square portfolio (Allergan, Herbalife, Canadian Pacific, Air Products, Restaurant Brands, Platform Specialty, Zoetis, Howard Hughes, Fannie/Freddie)

Pershing Square's 2014 annual recap: 40.4% net return, Allergan sold at a 75% premium, Herbalife short down 52%, and a $2.8bn PSH IPO making 46% of AUM permanent capital.

Thesis

Pershing Square's 2014 annual investor presentation recaps a record year: 40.4% net return versus the S&P 500's 13.7%, with Allergan contributing 19.1% of gross gains after Valeant's $153 unsolicited offer and Actavis's eventual $219 acquisition (75% premium to Pershing's $128 cost). The Herbalife short delivered 6.1% as the stock fell 52% amid FTC, DoJ and state AG probes, and worldwide volume points growth collapsed from +13% to -2%. The October 2014 Euronext Amsterdam IPO of Pershing Square Holdings raised $2.8bn, lifting permanent capital (including GP and affiliates) to 46% of firm AUM. The deck also recaps Air Products (new CEO Seifi Ghasemi, 22.5% EBIT-margin target to match Praxair), Canadian Pacific (Hunter Harrison delivering 64.7% operating ratio), Restaurant Brands (Tim Hortons merger), Platform Specialty, Zoetis (8.5% stake), Howard Hughes, and the Fannie/Freddie net-worth-sweep litigation.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    40.4% net return in 2014 vs S&P 500's 13.7%, driven by Allergan's sale to Actavis at a 75% premium to cost

  2. 2

    $2.8bn PSH IPO made permanent capital 46% of firm AUM, enabling longer-duration activism

  3. 3

    Herbalife short validated: stock fell 52% in 2014 amid FTC, DoJ and multi-state probes

KPIs cited

2014 net return (Pershing Square, L.P.)
40.4% vs S&P 500 13.7%
Cumulative net return since inception (Jan 2004-Dec 2014)
696.2% vs S&P 500 132.1%
Average monthly return in down months
-0.8% (Pershing Square LP) vs -3.6% (S&P 500)
Allergan position contribution
+19.1% gross in 2014; stake built at avg $128/share (9.7% of AGN), sold via Actavis at $219 (75% premium)
Herbalife short contribution
+6.1% gross in 2014; stock -52% in 2014, -41% since short inception May 2012
Herbalife worldwide volume-point growth
From +13% (Q3'13) to -2% (Q4'14E); China -47pp, S&C America -48pp
PSH IPO
$2.8bn raised 10/1/14; $6.6bn PSH total assets at 12/31/14; 7.1% avg discount to NAV since listing
Permanent capital share of core fund AUM
36.2% permanent, 46% including GP and affiliates (up from near-zero in 2009)
Total firm AUM (12/31/2014)
$18.3bn
Air Products EBIT margin target
From 16% to ~22.5% to match Praxair (650bps improvement, half SG&A, half operations)
Canadian Pacific operating ratio
64.7% in 2014 (third-best in industry); EPS +32%; new 2018 target 58-63% OR, $17 EPS
Zoetis stake
8.5% Pershing Square; combined 10.1% with Sachem Head (13D 11/12/14)

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns. Orange cells are present in this deck; neutral cells are not.

Slide gallery ·

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Pass-2 extraction may still be in progress for this deck.

Notes

Fund-level annual investor update rather than a single-target campaign deck, so SCQA fields, closing_ask, primary_demands and stake_disclosed_pct are null (multiple positions, no single ask). Format: per-position logo divider slide, followed by thesis recap + annotated stock-price timeline. Strongest slides are the annotated timelines (Allergan p27, Herbalife 2013 timeline p30, Herbalife 2014 timeline p31, CP since-inception p45) and the PSH IPO structure diagram (p16). Ackman is not explicitly signed on a cover page but is credited as CEO & Portfolio Manager in the org chart (p74). The Herbalife quote-contradiction comes from Chairman's Club member Stephan Gratziani on 'inauthenticity' of the business — a top distributor rather than C-suite, but used in exactly the same adversarial way. Visual template is standard institutional Pershing Square (blue headers, Calibri, lots of annotated Bloomberg line charts).