Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck follow up
2018-01-29 · 58 pages

Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. PSH

After a -4% 2017, Pershing Square restructures to a leaner investment-centric team, reaffirms core principles, and launches a $300mm PSCM tender to close PSH's ~20% NAV discount.

Thesis

Pershing Square's annual London investor meeting reviews a difficult 2017 (PSH net -4.0% vs S&P 500 +21.8%) and sets out a corrective path: a ~35% cut in non-investment headcount (70 to 45), a restated set of core investment principles (simple, predictable, FCF-generative businesses at fair-as-is prices), and a return to activism-driven value creation. Bill Ackman steps back from day-to-day IR to focus on investments, with Nick Botta taking operational leadership. New 2017 positions (ADP, Hilton, Nike, S&P Global) are presented as aligned with the reaffirmed principles, and the ADP proxy campaign commits management to ~50%+ EPS upside by FY2022. To address PSH's persistent ~20% discount to NAV, PSCM announced a $300mm tender offer, a 5% open-market buyback, and a vote to remove the 4.99% ownership cap at the April 2018 AGM.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    2017 was -4.0% vs S&P +21.8%; firm restructured to a leaner investment-centric team

  2. 2

    ADP proxy campaign commits management to ~50%+ EPS upside by FY2022

  3. 3

    PSCM $300mm tender + 5% buyback address PSH's ~20% NAV discount

Primary demands

  • Support the $300mm PSCM Acquisition Co tender offer for PSH shares
  • Vote at April 2018 AGM to remove PSH's 4.99% ownership limit
  • Continue PSH open-market buyback program (up to 5% of shares)

KPIs cited

PSH 2017 net return
(4.0%) vs. S&P 500 +21.8%
Pershing Square L.P. cumulative net return since 1/1/2004
493.6% vs. S&P 500 220.8% through 12/31/2017
Total Firm AUM
$8,769mm at 12/31/2017 ($8,259mm core funds + $510mm PSVI ADP co-invest)
Firm headcount
Peaked at 70 in 2016, reduced to 45 by 2018
PSH discount to NAV
Widened to ~25% in Oct 2017; $77.2mm repurchased at 20.1% discount
ADP implied FY2022 EPS
~$10, >50% above status quo; operating margins from ~19% to 35%+; growth from 2-4% to 7%+
QSR valuation
~21x 2018 FCF/share vs. peers (MCD/YUM/DPZ/DNKN) at ~25x
MDLZ valuation
18x 2018 EPS, ~15% discount to peers and historical average
Herbalife fundamentals
EPS down ~19% since 2013 despite ~33% buyback of shares outstanding
Management fee
Reduced ~14% on average for eight quarters as a result of the Allergan settlement

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns. Orange cells are present in this deck; neutral cells are not.

Slide gallery ·

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Notes

Fund-level annual London investor meeting, not a single-target activist thesis. Covers 2017 performance (third down year), organizational realignment ('returning to roots' — ~35% headcount reduction, Ackman delegating day-to-day IR to Nick Botta / Tony Asnes), restated core investment principles, and position-by-position updates (ADP, QSR, MDLZ, HHC, CMG, FNMA/FMCC, PAH, NKE, HLF short converted to puts), exited names (Air Products, Hilton, Nomad, S&P Global, Valeant), and a dedicated PSH discount-management section (LSE listing, 5% buyback, Jan-2018 $300m PSCM Acquisition Co tender). Tone is reflective/reparative rather than adversarial; no named villain. Cover credits only the firm; no named signatory, though the deck is clearly Ackman's voice — author_name left null. Per-position slides use the signature Pershing template of event-annotated share-price charts.