Contrarian Corpus
activist conference presentation follow up
2012-05-16 · 64 pages

J.C. Penney Company, Inc. JCP

N 5 Narrative
V 4 Visual
C 4 Craft
Original source ↗

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Ron Johnson (Target, Apple Retail) can repeat his retail magic at chronically mismanaged JCP

  2. 2

    $900mm cost opportunity alone = ~120% of 2011 EBIT; 'low-hanging fruit' funds the turnaround

  3. 3

    Shop-within-a-mall model lifts sales to $250-$350/sf, implying $191-$315 per share vs $26 today

Primary demands

  • Back Ron Johnson's transformation: everyday low pricing, refreshed brand identity, reduced clutter
  • Execute $900mm cost-savings target by year-end 2012 (Home Office $200+mm, Stores $400+mm, Advertising $300+mm)
  • Build 100 branded 'shops-within-a-shop' by 2015 (2-3/month cadence starting August 2012)
  • Shift national-brand mix from 45% to 75-80% of sales

KPIs cited

SG&A as % of revenue (2010, ex-D&A and rent)
JCP 31% vs Kohl's 21% — $1.8bn cost opportunity
Total shareholder return 2007-2011
JCP -54%, last vs Macy's -18%, Kohl's -22%, TJ Maxx +98%, Nordstrom +5%
Revenue growth 2007-2011
JCP -13% (last); TJ Maxx +26%, Nordstrom +19%, Kohl's +14%
EBIT growth 2007-2011
JCP -56% (last); TJ Maxx +68%, Macy's +15%, Kohl's +12%
2011 EBITDAR margin
JCP 9% (last) vs Kohl's/TJ Maxx 17%, Nordstrom 16%, Macy's 14%
Advertising spend as % of revenue (2011)
JCP 6.0% vs Kohl's 5.1%, Macy's 4.3% = $300mm opportunity
Sales per gross square foot (2011)
JCP $154 vs 2007 peak $177; Kohl's $194, TJ Maxx $285, Nordstrom $431
Discount distribution (2011)
>72% of revenue sold at 50% off or more; 590 promotional events a year
Cost-savings target
$900mm net savings by YE2012 = ~120% of 2011 adj. EBIT (~$760mm)
In-store merch sales/sf vs specialty peers
JCP $132 vs Gap $337, American Eagle $436, Aeropostale $561
Rent as % of in-store sales
JCP ~2% vs Gap/AE 9%, Aeropostale 7% — structural cost advantage
2015 illustrative EPS
Mid-case $6.00; Upside $9.25 (Sales to $200/sf, $1.25bn cost saves)
Real estate scale
112mm sf controlled, 49% owned / 51% leased at ~$4/sf; $11+bn replacement cost

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (9)

Notes

Classic Pershing Square 'Think Big' deck delivered at the Ira Sohn Investment Conference on 2012-05-16. Unusual for a contrarian activist deck in that Pershing is endorsing incumbent management (Ron Johnson, whom Ackman helped install in Nov 2011) rather than agitating against them — the villains are prior CEOs (Ullman, Oesterreicher) and the 'culture of complacency'. Strong SCQA arc: Situation (large retailer with hidden real estate / scale advantages), Complication (20 years of mismanagement), Question (can it be fixed?), Answer (Johnson's extreme makeover + $900mm cost take-out + shop-within-a-shop = $77-$315/share). Heavy use of old-model/new-model framing (p30), CEO-tenure-banded stock price chart (p14, p24), peer-gap benchmarking (p15, p41, p46, p54), and an EPS waterfall (p57). Historically known to have failed catastrophically: Johnson fired April 2013 after SSS collapsed ~25%, Ackman resigned from board Aug 2013, Pershing exited at ~$500mm loss.