Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck follow up
2021-02-18 · 57 pages

Pershing Square Holdings PSH

The three reasons

  1. 1

    PSH returned 70.2% NAV / 84.8% TSR in 2020, beating S&P by 5,180 bps

  2. 2

    CDS index hedges generated $2.6bn in proceeds against just $27mm of carrying cost

  3. 3

    Hedging gains redeployed at March lows delivered 87% return on $1.95bn core reinvestment

KPIs cited

PSH NAV return 2020
70.2% net, highest annual return since strategy inception in 2004
Total shareholder return 2020
84.8% on Euronext Amsterdam-listed shares
Outperformance vs S&P 500
5,180 bps in 2020 (PSH 70.2% vs S&P 18.4%)
Discount to NAV
Narrowed from 28.9% at start of 2020 to 23.0% as of Feb 16, 2021
Compound annual return since 2004
16.9% PSLP/PSH vs 9.6% S&P 500
Cumulative net return since inception
1,330% PSLP/PSH vs 377% S&P 500 (1/1/2004 – 12/31/2020)
CDS hedge notional
$70.7bn total notional (CDX IG/ITRAXX Main/CDX HY) generating $2.6bn proceeds on $27mm carry
Redeployment return
$1.95bn invested into SBUX/HHC/LOW/HLT/RBI/A returned 87% ($1.95bn → $3.65bn)
Share buybacks 2020
$286mm at avg $20.81 / 32% discount to NAV; 6.6% of public shares retired
Total debt to total assets
17.7% as of 2/16/21; investment-grade, no margin leverage, laddered to 2039
Total AUM
$13.6bn across PSH/PSLP/PSI as of 2/16/2021
PSTH IPO
Raised $4bn at $20/unit on 7/22/20; +44% through 12/31/20

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns. Orange cells are present in this deck; neutral cells are not.

Precedents cited

  • Pershing Square performance through the Global Financial Crisis 2007-2009

Composition what's on the 57 slides

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Notes

Fund-level annual investor presentation for PSH (listed closed-end vehicle), not a single-target activist thesis. Cover credits Pershing Square Holdings institutionally with no named author, though Ackman is CEO/Portfolio Manager and the deck is authored by PSCM. Structure: chairman intro, 2020 performance review, business & org update, portfolio holdings recap (Lowe's, Chipotle, Agilent, Hilton, RBI, HHC, Starbucks, Fannie/Freddie, Berkshire). Key 2020 narratives: (1) the asymmetric CDS index hedge turning $27mm of carry into $2.6bn, (2) redeployment into SBUX/HHC/LOW/HLT/RBI/A at March lows, (3) PSTH SPAC launch. Standard PSH template: blue/green/red colored callout banners, dense bullets, line/bar charts with annotated event-callout boxes — the annotated share-price timeline pattern (pp. 39/41/43/45/55) is a stealable visual idiom. Several slides are section-divider-only (4, 16, 26, 37, 54). No villain, no demands, no breakup math, no closing ask — closes on Q&A per the agenda.