Contrarian Corpus
activist letter follow up
2025-01-13 · 14 pages

Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. HHH

HHH has compounded at just 2.2% over 14 years; merging with Pershing Square Holdco at $85/share converts a market-orphaned real-estate company into a Berkshire-style permanent compounder.

Thesis

After 14 years as HHH's largest shareholder, Pershing Square argues the public market has failed to recognize the company's underlying progress — total return is 35% (2.2% CAGR) since the 2010 rights offering at $47.62. Ackman proposes a merger in which Pershing Square Holdco contributes ~$1bn cash at $85/share (a 38.3% premium to the unaffected price) while public shareholders may elect cash or roll over into a recapitalized HHH. Post-deal, Pershing Square owns 61–69%, contributes its entire investment team and macro-hedging capabilities for a 1.5% management fee with no promote, and reshapes HHH into a 'modern-day Berkshire Hathaway' that uses HHC's excess cash to acquire controlling interests in operating companies. HHC's master-planned-communities business and David O'Reilly's team remain untouched.

SCQA

Situation

Howard Hughes Holdings owns master-planned communities and mixed-use real estate; Pershing Square has been its largest shareholder since the 2010 rights offering and currently owns 37.6% of the float.

Complication

HHH stock has compounded at just 2.2% annually for 14 years because the public market does not credit its long-duration MPC assets, and the company's mandate prevents it from compounding excess cash into other businesses.

Resolution

Merge HHH with Pershing Square Holdco at $85/share cash or stock-rollover, install Ackman's team as leadership, and convert HHH into a diversified holding company that acquires controlling interests in operating companies.

Reward

Public shareholders get a 38.3% cash premium today or roll into a Berkshire-style permanent compounder backed by Pershing Square's 21-year 19.4% CAGR track record and macro-hedging capabilities.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    HHH has compounded at just 2.2% per year for 14 years — the market refuses to recognize the underlying value

  2. 2

    $85/share cash offer is a 38.3% premium to the unaffected price and 18.4% to Friday's close

  3. 3

    Pershing's 19.4% CAGR proves it can compound HHH's excess cash into a Berkshire-style holdco

Primary demands

  • Approve a merger of Pershing Square Holdco into HHH at $85/share cash alternative with optional stock roll-over
  • Install Ackman as Chairman/CEO and the Pershing Square senior team as HHH executives (no cash/equity comp)
  • Reposition HHH as a 'modern-day Berkshire Hathaway' that acquires controlling stakes in operating companies
  • Pay Pershing Square a 1.5% management fee on equity market cap, with no promote or performance fees
  • Leave HHC real estate subsidiary and David O'Reilly's team unchanged
  • Maintain NYSE listing, public float of at least 13.6M shares (30.8%), and cap Pershing voting power below 50%
  • Subject the deal to Special Committee approval and a non-waivable majority-of-the-minority vote

KPIs cited

HHH total shareholder return since 2010 IPO
35% over 14 years, or 2.2% compound annual return, with no dividends since inception
Cash offer per share
$85.00 — 38.3% premium to unaffected $61.46 price (Aug 5, 2024) and 18.4% to prior Friday close
Pershing Square existing stake
37.6% of HHH (Pershing Square Funds) plus ~28% employee look-through ownership
Post-merger Pershing Square Holdco ownership
Minimum 61.1%, maximum 69.2% of HHH
Transaction economics
$1bn cash purchase of 11,764,706 shares plus $500M bond-financed buyback of up to 5,882,353 shares at $85
Pershing Square employee 'look-through' investment
$900M (Ackman $440M, other employees $460M) plus $100M from strategic investors
PSLP/PSH long-term performance
19.4% CAGR, 4,017% cumulative return, 41.2x multiple of capital since Jan 2004 (gross of perf fees)
S&P 500 same-period return
10.4% CAGR, 694% cumulative, 7.9x multiple of capital
PSH Permanent Capital Era performance (since Jan 2018)
25.7% CAGR, 397% cumulative vs. 13.8% / 147% for S&P 500
Subprime hedging P&L
$64M carry cost → $1.1bn proceeds (17.5x multiple of capital)
Covid hedging P&L
$27M carry → $2.6bn proceeds (93.4x multiple of capital)
Interest-rate swaption P&L
Initial tranche $112M → $1.3bn (11.3x); subsequent $196M → $1.3bn (6.5x)
HHH Covid drawdown
Stock fell 71% from $129.35 to $37.44 (Feb 20 to Mar 23, 2020)
HHH 2022 rate-hike drawdown
Stock fell 46% from $101.78 to $55.39 (Dec 2021 to Sep 2022)
Pershing Square management fee to HHH
1.5% per annum of equity market cap, paid quarterly, no promote or performance fee

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns. Orange cells are present in this deck; neutral cells are not.

Precedents cited

  • Berkshire Hathaway (Buffett holdco model)
  • Pershing Square 2005-2009 MBIA CDS hedge (17.5x multiple)
  • Pershing Square 2020 Covid index CDS hedge (93.4x multiple)
  • Pershing Square 2020-2022 interest-rate swaptions hedge (11.3x and 6.5x multiples)
  • Pershing Square Tontine Holdings ($4bn SPAC IPO during Covid)

Composition what's on the 14 slides

Visual + textual elements counted across every slide in this deck. Hover a box for what that element is; click to see every slide in the corpus that uses it.

Chart types used in this deck

Slide gallery ·

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Notes

Unusual specimen: a friendly take-private / recap proposal from a 14-year insider rather than a hostile activist campaign. Ackman openly praises CEO David O'Reilly and the board while arguing that the public market structurally cannot value HHH's long-duration MPC assets. The economic substance is a Pershing-Holdco merger that converts HHH into a Berkshire-style diversified holdco with Ackman as Chairman/CEO; HHC subsidiary stays unchanged. Format is a 14-page formal letter on Pershing Square letterhead, three embedded charts (hedging track record table p.6, PSLP/PSH vs S&P chart p.7, Permanent Capital Era chart p.8) plus appendix bios and net-of-fees performance charts (p.14). Closes with the rhetorical flourish 'let's give this bird some wings,' invoking Howard Hughes the aviator. The S&P comparison charts benchmark Pershing's track record (the buyer's credibility), not HHH against real-estate peers — so peer_gap_chart is marked false relative to the target.