Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck follow up
2016-01-28 · 104 pages

Pershing Square portfolio (multi-holding LP update: MDLZ, VRX, APD, ZTS, CP, QSR, HHC, PAH, FNMA/FMCC, HLF short)

N 4 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 3 Craft
Original source ↗

The three reasons

  1. 1

    2015 was -20.5% but portfolio trades at substantial discount to intrinsic value

  2. 2

    Permanent capital base lets us wait for market price and intrinsic value to converge

  3. 3

    Holdings still have company-specific catalysts (ZBB at MDLZ, Versum spin at APD, CP-NS merger)

Primary demands

  • Continue 3G-style margin transformation at Mondelez (EBIT margin from ~14% toward Heinz-tier ~24%)
  • Close Air Products' ~500-600 bps margin gap vs. Praxair; execute Versum Materials spin-off by Sept 2016
  • Execute Zoetis $300m cost-reduction program and operating-margin expansion to ~34% by 2017
  • Pursue CP Rail-Norfolk Southern merger for ~US$1.8bn of synergies
  • Regulators shut Herbalife as an illegal pyramid scheme

KPIs cited

Pershing Square Holdings 2015 net return
-20.5% vs. S&P 500 +1.4%
Cumulative net return since 2004 inception
567.1% vs. S&P 500 135.3%
Mondelez EBIT margin vs peers
~14% vs Kraft Heinz 26.3%, Hershey's 19.9%, Campbell's 17.0%
Heinz gross margin under 3G
+600 bps consolidated (36%→42%) and +1,100 bps Europe (38%→49%) in 2 years
Mondelez margin trajectory
12% (2014) to 15-16% (2016 target) — management plan, Pershing sees higher optimized margin
Air Products operating margin gap to Praxair
~500-600 bps; APD industrial-gas margins 18% vs Praxair
APD FY2015 EPS
$6.57, up 14% despite 7% FX headwind; operating margin up 310 bps to 19%
Zoetis cost reduction program
$300m annual cost savings by 2017; operating margins ~25% (2014) → ~34% (2017)
CP Operating Ratio
61% in 2015 (improved 370 bps); targeted 56-57% long-term
Herbalife volume points per new member
declined from 1,634 (2011) to ~1,330 (2015E)
Herbalife 2016 EPS guidance vs 2013 consensus
$4.35-$4.75 guidance vs $7.00+ mid-2013 Wall Street projections

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (9)

Notes

Annual LP update covering full portfolio, not a single-target thesis deck. Post-mortem framing is unusually candid for Pershing: page 16 'Principal Mistakes We Made in 2015' explicitly names Valeant ('we relied too much on platform value', 'did not sufficiently discount regulatory risk at $196 average cost'), Platform Specialty, and CP as trim-miss errors. Page 18 'While We Wait for the Weighing Machine' is the strongest SCQA moment — classic Buffett/Graham invocation to justify staying the course. Herbalife section (pp.87-94) is the only adversarial/short thesis and uses CEO Michael Johnson's recruiting quote as the contradiction device. Mondelez section (pp.20-30) is the cleanest peer-gap + 3G-precedent case and is the most reusable for a swipe file. Deck uses standard Pershing Square blue-and-green institutional template — clean but not editorial-tier.