Contrarian Corpus
Phrase library

Callouts & quotes from 875+ activist slides

Every emphasised callout and every pulled quote, extracted slide-by-slide. Search by keyword, filter by slide type or by source.

Showing 661–720 of 875 matching "estimate"
quote villain critique

"We've added $30 million to our estimate for fiscal '11 CapEx due to the acquisition of Van Houtte. — GMCR Q1 earnings call"

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters · GMCR Greenlight Capital · p. 70
callout valuation reveal

"Applying a generous 0.5x to 0.75x EV/2019E sales, we estimate that CVNA shares have 50%-70% downside from current levels."

Carvana Co. · CVNA Spruce Point Capital · p. 96
callout ceo quote

"Our estimates illustrate the opposite -- 2U is likely earning 70% more than Simmons (currently 2Us second largest client)"

2U, Inc. · TWOU Spruce Point Capital · p. 31
callout villain critique

"We estimate 75% of WD-40's cash is in its U.K. subsidiary. A falling British Pound creates material risk to the business."

WD-40 Company · WDFC Spruce Point Capital · p. 43
callout kpi overview

"We estimate the GSEs could repay the $65bn remaining Treasury preferred in 3 years based on their earnings and ~$72bn DTA"

callout kpi overview

"We estimate that net of USM, FTAI's module business is currently delivering EBITDA margins ~600bps lower than in H1 2024."

FTAI Aviation Ltd. · FTAI Muddy Waters · p. 50
callout other

"We conclude from our estimates that BEKE's revenues are significantly inflated, even at BEKE's reported commission rates."

KE Holdings · BEKE Muddy Waters · p. 10
callout comparison table

"A potential management fee reduction to 24% would reduce annual EPS estimates by about $2.00 just on this measure alone."

Erie Indemnity Company · ERIE Spruce Point Capital · p. 31
callout appendix methodology

"We add these three groups together to estimate the amount of swaps terminating in 2024, and the result is $16.0 billion."

callout villain critique

"A Citigroup report published 3 weeks before this one, however, pegged EUV at 80% of sales by 2022 – 4X the UBS estimate."

Lasertec Corporation · 6920 Scorpion Capital · p. 52
callout villain critique

"We estimate that Smart2Pay's net profit margins ballooned from 28.5% (pre-acquisition 2019) to 49.2% (post close 2020)."

Nuvei Corp · NVEI Spruce Point Capital · p. 97
callout other

"These connections between performers and PUs further support our estimated that YY has fabricated ~90% of gift revenue."

Joyy Inc. · YY Muddy Waters · p. 22
callout villain critique

"In the past two years, we estimate insiders have monetized £1 billion, net, via selling, collaring, and pledging stock."

NMC Health plc · NMC.LN Muddy Waters · p. 32
callout kpi overview

"Therefore, we estimate a low, middle and high range for new capacity that implies an 11% - 48% increase in capex costs."

Oatly Group AB · OTLY Spruce Point Capital · p. 39
callout ceo quote

"We estimate that revenue per new store fell from $15.0 to $12.4 million ($178 to $172 per sqft.) between 2022 and 2023."

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. · FND Spruce Point Capital · p. 29
callout appendix data

"We estimate that the average failed Sales Leader has $2,000 of expenses, net of minimal retail and/or recruiting profit"

Herbalife Ltd. · HLF Pershing Square · p. 326
callout other

"We estimate total addressable market penetration of only ~40% today; penetration of home automation nascent at only ~2%"

ADT Corporation · ADT Corvex · p. 18
callout villain critique

"We estimate pro forma net leverage would be at ~5x today, reflecting Disney’s lower run-rate EBITDA compared to FY 2018"

The Walt Disney Company · DIS Trian Partners · p. 23
callout valuation reveal

"Even at the low-end of estimates, JPM thought the company's equity would be worth ~70% more than where it trades today"

Solventum Corporation · SOLV Trian Partners · p. 13
callout villain critique

"An estimated $7 - $10 million savings can be realized by employing best practices that others have already implemented"

Darden Restaurants, Inc. · DRI Starboard Value · p. 127
callout peer gap

"An estimated $7 - $10 million savings can be realized by employing best practices that others have already implemented"

Darden Restaurants, Inc. · DRI Starboard Value · p. 127
callout other

"Net of stamp duties, we estimate the flip generated Pisach ~£753,000 in profits on the near-instantaneous transaction."

callout villain critique

"We also estimate that PGNY customers are paying almost double for the pharmacy benefit in FY22 versus the 2019 cohort."

Progyny, Inc. · PGNY Spruce Point Capital · p. 37
callout kpi overview

"Since the $750 million acquisition of Insight Pharma in September 2014, we estimate organic EBITDA has been declining."

Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc. · PBH Spruce Point Capital · p. 34
callout other

"We estimate that FBHS can generate at least $400MM in EBITDA on today’s sales base by cutting capacity and excess cost"

callout ceo quote

"Celgene estimated peak sales potential of $3 billion for JCAR017 when announcing the acquisition of Juno Therapeutics"

Bristol-Myers Squibb · BMY Starboard Value · p. 114
callout villain critique

"We Estimate that Vivion's Controlling Shareholders Have Taken Shareholder Loan Repayments of at least €360.1 Million"

Vivion Investments S.à.r.l. Muddy Waters · p. 9
callout other

"The root of the problem for the company has been, and remains, overly optimistic Mineral Resource Estimates (MREs)."

Asanko Gold Inc. · AKG Muddy Waters · p. 23
callout sop buildup

"When including annual fixed costs in the calculation, we estimate the company will lose -$402 on every MA customer."

eHealth Inc. · EHTH Muddy Waters · p. 13
callout villain critique

"We Estimate That Starboard Inflated Their REIT Multiple Analysis by ~4x Through Flawed Calculations and Assumptions"

Darden Restaurants · DRI Starboard Value · p. 9
callout ceo quote

"Inspire claims this number is 2 million – their source? See footnote 2: “Company estimates” (i.e., “we made it up”)"

Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. · INSP Wolfpack Research · p. 14
callout precedent table

"In a majority of the cases, the share price collapse has met or exceeded our downside estimate of intrinsic value."

GFL Environmental Inc. · GFL Spruce Point Capital · p. 3
callout precedent table

"In a majority of the cases, the share price collapse has met or exceeded our downside estimate of intrinsic value."

Canadian Tire Corporation · CTC.A Spruce Point Capital · p. 3
callout precedent table

"In a majority of the cases, the share price collapse has met or exceeded our downside estimate of intrinsic value."

Lightspeed Commerce, Inc. · LSPD Spruce Point Capital · p. 3
callout villain critique

"The consultant’s review details a pattern of flagrant flaws that led to the “vastly overestimated bioavailability”"

Harmony Biosciences Holdings · HRMY Scorpion Capital · p. 309
callout valuation reveal

"Pro forma for the expected decline in the U.S. business, normalized EPS is significantly below consensus estimates"

Herbalife · HLF Pershing Square · p. 44
quote villain critique

""At a conservative estimate, there's five billion gallons of shale gas under your lower molars." — Cartoon Caption"

Pioneer Natural Resources · PXD Greenlight Capital · p. 52
callout sop buildup

"We estimate GFL's debt is C$460m more than reported and financial data providers fail to capture the adjustments."

GFL Environmental Inc. · GFL Spruce Point Capital · p. 57
callout appendix data

"Against YY's reported Bigo revenue of $417.0 million, this yields an estimate that 59.1% of Bigo revenue is fake."

Joyy Inc. · YY Muddy Waters · p. 53
callout villain critique

"Spruce Point estimates that after a period of growth, WSP's organic employee headcount was flat to down in 2023."

WSP Global Inc. · WSP Spruce Point Capital · p. 22
callout appendix methodology

"We estimate that Target's ground lease credit risk should be materially lower than Target's unsecured CDS spread"

Target Corporation · TGT Pershing Square · p. 74
callout process diagram

"We anticipate margin uplift by 27% on a pro forma forward basis, resulting in estimated operating margin of 6.7%"

Hyundai Motor Group Elliott Management · p. 34
quote villain critique

"reflected the best currently available estimates and judgments — FSCT: Definitive Proxy Statement (Mar 23, 2020)"

Forescout Technologies · FSCT Spruce Point Capital · p. 33
callout cover

"We estimate DGW's actual revenue is no greater than US$800,000 annually, versus the US$154.4 million it claims."

callout valuation reveal

"As a result, we attempt to adjust Street estimates for these factors that appear to be inflating DOX's results."

Amdocs Limited · DOX Spruce Point Capital · p. 14
callout other

"Revenue estimates crept higher despite Florida awards declining and estimates just increased after the LSP deal"

Construction Partners, Inc. · ROAD Spruce Point Capital · p. 61
callout transition

">A PK failure that never should have made it past phase 1 – underestimated plasma levels are key driver of risk"

Harmony Biosciences Holdings · HRMY Scorpion Capital · p. 117
callout villain critique

"In Morinda's, case, we estimate that Morinda's revenues from China are inflated by 36% in 2017 and 51% in 2016."

New Age Beverage Corp. · NBEV Grizzly Research · p. 4
callout villain critique

"In Morinda's, case, we estimate that Morinda's revenues from China are inflated by 36% in 2017 and 51% in 2016."

New Age Beverage Corp. · NBEV Grizzly Research · p. 4
callout before after

"Rio's inability to share risks with targets has cost shareholders an estimated c.US$35.6 billion in book value"

Rio Tinto · RIO Palliser Capital · p. 26
callout villain critique

"In total, we estimate that your non-core acquisition spree cost shareholders more than $12 per share in value."

callout transition

"Elliott estimates tax savings equivalent to approximately 60% of 2011 Net Income guidance provided by Company"

Iron Mountain Incorporated · IRM Elliott Management · p. 31
callout peer gap

"McOpCo’s Estimated Average Unit EBITDA margins versus U.S. Franchisees’ Estimated Average Unit EBITDA margins"

McDonald's Corporation · MCD Pershing Square · p. 8
callout sop buildup

"Management estimated the value of these projects to be $3 billion in 2017 when copper was at $2.70 per pound."

Teck Resources · TECK Greenlight Capital · p. 45