Callouts & quotes from 875+ activist slides

"We find it extremely curious that management could be so off in its estimates for VIP sales. How could management have such little visibility into a stable, diversified, steadily-growing business?"

"In a hypothetical year where BREIT generates a target return of 12.0%, we estimate an investor would pay an “all-in” fee ratio, including both management fees plus performance fees, of 2.7% of NAV"

"We conservatively estimate Porch booked $8.1m of revenue in 2019 with zero cost associated with it. As a result, we estimate Gross Margin % to be inflated by approximately 2.3% (230 basis points)."

"We conservatively estimate Porch booked $8.1m of revenue in 2019 with zero cost associated with it. As a result, we estimate Gross Margin % to be inflated by approximately 2.3% (230 basis points)."

"The obvious way to play this is through copper mining companies. Freeport-McMoRan, is the leading copper miner. It is up 45% this year. It trades at a still reasonable 16x estimated 2021 earnings."

"We estimate the cumulative in situ value of Secondary Magnetic REOs at less than $0.60 per tonne; after factoring in aggressive recovery and payability ratios, REE *(revenue) would be <$0.25/tonne"

"We estimate that the retention of the GSEs’ earnings will allow them to become fully capitalized in no more than a decade. There are several potential alternatives to capitalize them more quickly"

"Dycom does not regularly report wireless revenue but is often asked by analysts. Based on our analysis, we estimate annual revenues have fallen from ~$300 million (2020) to ~$185 million (2024)."

"By calculating predicted subscription months assuming 0% and 100% cohort renewals versus actuals, we estimate that Heska retention rates were materially lower than the “>95%” the Company quotes."

"In fact, following the pre-announcement of recent results and initial 2018 outlook, we estimate that management’s EBITDA guidance for 2018 has fallen 17% below its original post-merger guidance."

"Spruce Point estimates that for the first time since coming public, Remitly's transaction margin, or the difference of revenue per send volume and transaction expense per send volume, declined."

"Target currently owns approximately 213 million square feet of retail square footage (1), more than any other publicly traded retail real estate company in the U.S. today based on our estimates"

"Positive sales momentum has culminated in rising consensus revenue estimates for mall-based retailers. Wall Street is now forecasting 2.6% and 3.5% revenue growth in 2010 and 2011, respectively"

"The business units of TWX, if separated, should have the ability to manage even more debt (estimated at up to $23 billion) without jeopardizing their ability to secure investment grade ratings."

"This estimate does not include harm done to the ~10mm¹ former Non-Sales Leader distributors. As such, we think the true financial damage Herbalife has inflicted is materially higher than $3.8bn"

"While we estimate BR has invested $1.0 billion+ in the UBS wealth platform since launching the project in 2018, its end customer, UBS Americas Wealth Advisors, is slowly bleeding in population."

"“We are highly confident BWLD could refranchise their owned stores at a multiple of 6.0x or higher and estimate a refranchising process to 90% could take as few as 18-24 months” — Cypress Group"

"While PetIQ's growth target was initially set at 20%, this figure was gradually tracked back to 15% without much explanation, and without any announcement that its growth estimate had changed."

"This view is captured in an October 23rd note from Morgan Stanley which estimated only 1%-3% of all incremental US data center power capacity (~2-5 GWe) through 2035 would be provided by SMRs."

"The pursuit of a dutch auction, in conjunction with other actions, should help reduce the valuation gap between the current stock price of TWX and the estimated intrinsic value of the Company."

"Based on the new strategic direction being chartered in Live Video, and the findings from our interviews, we estimate that the earnings power of Momo Live Video is likely to be impaired by 30%"

"Sartorius AG, a major competitor to Mettler in its Laboratory division, announced a new ERP in 2016, and expects the project to be completed in 2019. We estimate the total cost is EUR 20 - 30m"

"Phillips is far from achieving its 2025 mid-cycle EBITDA target, with analyst's 2026 estimates signaling a major shortfall – despite consensus assuming a reasonable mid-cycle price environment"

"We estimate she has sold ~$70MM of stock; co-founder and SVP Bill Banyai, ~$42MM; CFO Jim Thorburn, ~$15MM; and President/COO Patrick Finn, ~$11MM – a total of $135MM across these four alone."

"We estimate that the GSEs’ minimum capital levels were nearly sufficient to withstand their losses during the financial crisis, excluding the large credit losses from subprime and Alt-A loans"

"Earnings estimates have followed the same path. It’s noteworthy that in 2009, when the stock was less than $50, analysts thought the company would be earning more than $3.00 per share by now."

"If current 2024 consensus estimates prove to be accurate, this would mean that GoDaddy missed its implied 2024 targets from the Investor Day by over $500 million in revenue, over $100 million"

"Per an employee LinkedIn disclosure, Microsoft is $100m of sales, which conveniently equates to ~17% of LTM sales of $606m. Ex: Microsoft sales, we estimate the consumer segment is down 53%."

"Prorating this to 91 days generates a 2Q21 connected store existing home sale GTV estimate of RMB ~233 billion, implying the connected stores' existing home sales GTV was inflated by ~47.2%."

"Even under more conservative estimates regarding the inorganic sales contributions of recently-acquired businesses, management is guiding to very limited organic cloud revenue growth at best"

"Exhibit 4: We reach our $33PT for NOVA by applying a 1.8x multiple to our estimated 30 year NAV using a 4% discount rate, implying 35% upside from the current price of $24.45. — Roth Capital"

"Revenue commitments from Baker Hughes were reduced by $40m for FY23 as disclosed in C3's 2Q'22 10-Q filed on December 2, 2021, yet we believe revenue estimates do not reflect this revision."

"Based on SMCI's disclosures, we estimate its Q1 interest expense should have been $2.3 million vs. the $4.0 million cash interest expenses reported at the bottom of its cash flow statement."

"We estimate a grand total of 58% of IONQ’s total bookings reported in 2024, $54.6 million, were unfunded portions of federal contracts that had been awarded via a secret earmarking process."

"However, after subtracting Blackout Bingo’s revenue from the top three games’ total revenue, we estimate that Tether’s top two games sequentially declined by -5.9% sequentially in Q3 2020."

"With sales growth from new products set to plateau and margin expansion opportunities largely exhausted, we believe that Hill-Rom growth and earnings will underperform sell-side estimates."

"We estimate that the unit economics of newly acquired customers have actually gotten worse — from a $10 average loss per customer we estimated back in 2017, to $19 per customer in Q2 2018."

"Verint’s balance sheet, meanwhile – saddled by $650M of net debt at 3x leverage, by our estimates – will likely restrict it from making similarly-sizable investments in cloud capabilities."

"We estimate that pass-throughs embedded in gross bookings have increased materially (from ~27% to ~37% of gross bookings) given the PEO's growth, inflating bookings growth by ~200bps p.a."

"Because ADP participates in SMB, Mid-Market, Enterprise, and International, ADP’s structural margin potential can be best estimated by benchmarking against competitors in each sub-segment"

"Spruce Point believes that this is an egregious overestimate, and we are stunned that the CEO of a near-billion-dollar public company could be so far off on one of his own business lines."

"Company-owned German and Austrian retail business under the JET logo is currently being marketed at a “potential value of $3bn assuming a 10x multiple” according to sellside estimates(2)."

"Company-owned German and Austrian retail business under the JET logo is currently being marketed at a “potential value of $3bn assuming a 10x multiple” according to sellside estimates(2)"

"Zebra has various competitors in different lines of business. However, we will illustrate that the sum-of-parts estimated valuation is materially lower than its current enterprise value."

"We find it concerning that management would make such a weakly supported claim, and that it wasn't even planning on discussing the change in maturity estimate until questioned about it."

"Based on management estimates and our independent research and analysis, we estimate 6% to 8% long-term revenue growth. Our estimate is a slight discount to Valeant management estimates"

"We estimate that Mettler's Adj. Diluted EPS is $1.90 - $2.23 (8.3% - 9.8%) overstated due to aggressive capitalization policies and failures to recognize inventory obsolescence charges."

"While we acknowledge that there is no “perfect” source and some may exclude certain types of claims, we find that none come close to the procedure volume estimate disclosed by Procept."

"We therefore divide the estimated Q2 FY25 overstated inventory amount, which is a cumulative number, by ELF's reported gross margin of 71%. This provides the implied overstated revenue"

"At current g-fee levels of 60bps, we estimate that the GSEs’ guarantee business can generate $146bn of earnings over the next 10 years, including the benefit of future reserve releases"

"Our best estimate, we cannot reconcile $59m and $79m of sales in 2017 and 2018. As a result, we cannot reconcile and estimate operating profit margin inflation of $42 and $52m in 2018."

"Based on current implied run rate revenues of $297m, we estimate Leidos has paid 3.4x sales, or a substantial premium to benchmark deals in the airport security and detection industry."

"Company-owned German and Austrian retail business under the JET logo is currently being marketed at a “potential value of $3bn assuming a 10x multiple” according to sellside estimates"

"To make FIGS LTM Gross Margin more comparable with peers, we deduct “Selling Expenses”. By our estimate, FIGS’ LTM Gross Margin is inflated by 2,040 basis points, from 50.7% to 71.0%."

"Based on Free Cash Flow projections offered in the deal proxy, $1.66 billion was expected for 2019. However, based on our analysis, we estimate actual Free Cash Flow of $489 million."

"Spruce Point finds it very alarming that the weighted-average pull through rate has crept higher since 2020. A higher pull-through rate allows management to estimate higher revenues."

"If we assume each shipment corresponds to one MV3D™ machine, then estimated sales to the distributor are $4.4m - $7.1m, a range not far off from the distributor's 2019 sales increase"

"Were RUN’s basis inflation disallowed on a go forward basis, we estimate that it would have an approximate $0.50 / watt funding gap to fill, which would imperil its ability to grow."

"Spruce Point estimates that Evoqua’s run rate revenue for the quarter would have severely missed Street estimates by ~8%. In addition, Evoqua contributed a $49 million pre-tax loss."

"And when we take a look at AGO's estimates of expected losses to be paid, not much has been reserved for the rest of the U.S. public finance portfolio once you back out Puerto Rico."