Contrarian Corpus

98 documents showing 61–98

SpringOwl 2015-12-01

Yahoo! Inc. YHOO

Yahoo's Core is mismanaged but fixable — replace Mayer with an operator CEO, cut headcount two-thirds, bring Liberty in as a partner, and shares triple from $35 to $113.

N4 V3 C3
Elliott Management 2015-11-16

American Capital Ltd. ACAS

ACAS trades at 71% of NAV vs 115% peer median — chronic discount since 2008

N4 V4 C4
Greenlight Capital 2015-05-04

Pioneer Natural Resources PXD

Pioneer and the shale 'frackers' burn cash and destroy value on every BOE developed; their $27B market cap rests on proved reserves worth $3-8B — buy oil, not PXD.

N5 V3 C3
Land & Buildings 2015-03-17

MGM Resorts International MGM

MGM's US real estate is buried inside a 10x-EBITDA C-corp; a REIT conversion plus lodging-C-corp spin and MGM China dividend can lift NAV from $33 to $55 per share.

N4 V2 C1
Muddy Waters 2015-02-17

Bolloré SA BOL FP

Bolloré's Breton-Pulleys circular ownership masks that public float is 42.8% not 24.3%; at €4.37 shares trade at 41% of €10.63 NAV — 95% upside to €8.50.

N5 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2014-11-20

Superb Summit International Group Limited 1228.HK

Superb Summit's HK$773m of reported revenue belongs to a coal company it never owned, and its HK$1.5bn JFT acquisition is a sham valuation routed through a mystery intermediary.

N4 V2 C2
Starboard Value 2014-09-11

Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI

Darden's brands and real estate are worth $67-$86/share vs. $48 today — replace the entire board to execute the Brinker playbook: operational turnaround, real-estate separation, SRG spin-off.

N5 V3 C3
Starboard Value 2014-09-11

Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI

Darden underperformed direct peers by ~300% over 5 years under current Board

N5 V3 C4
Starboard Value 2014-05-22

Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI

Darden's Board destroyed value by selling Red Lobster for ~1x EBITDA against shareholder will; replacing 12 directors unlocks a real estate spin, cost-cut turnaround, and peer-catchup upside.

N4 V2 C2
Spruce Point Capital 2014-05-20

iRobot Corp IRBT

IRBT is a narrow consumer-vacuum company riding a robotics bubble; aggressive accounting, insider selling and a decaying moat point to $20-$25, or 25-40% downside.

N4 V3 C3
Marcato 2014-04-22

Sotheby's BID

Sotheby's sits on $1bn+ of excess capital while insiders own 0.8%; Third Point's slate brings aligned ownership to drive capital return, cost discipline, and higher ROE.

N4 V3 C3
Starboard Value 2014-03-31

Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI

Darden is rushing a value-destructive Red Lobster spin-off; a Special Meeting can halt it and unlock $1-2B of real estate and operational upside instead.

N4 V3 C3
Oasis Management 2013-06-06

Nintendo Co., Ltd. 7974.T

Nintendo trades at 0.9x book with 67% of market cap in net cash; publishing Mario and Pokémon on iOS/Android unlocks freemium upside of 97-240%.

N5 V3 C3
Elliott Management 2013-03-01

Hess Corporation HES

Hess intrinsic value is $96-$128/share vs. discounted current price - ~$50bn TEV trapped in opaque conglomerate

N5 V4 C4
Elliott Management 2013-01-29

Hess Corporation HES

Hess intrinsic value is over $126/share — 94-153% upside to the current price

N5 V4 C4
Muddy Waters 2012-11-27

Olam International Ltd. SGX:O32

Olam is an Enron-style agri trader whose aggressive non-cash accounting, off-the-rails CapEx binge, and 9.3x leverage mask a failing trading business — equity likely worthless, bonds 14-33¢.

N5 V2 C1
Marcato 2012-10-01

Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX); GenCorp (GY); Brookfield Residential Properties (BRP)

Three stocks — ALEX, GenCorp, Brookfield Residential — hide land assets on their balance sheets at decades-old cost, offering 46-286% upside once marked to market.

N3 V3 C2
Pershing Square 2012-05-16

J.C. Penney Company, Inc. JCP

Ron Johnson (Target, Apple Retail) can repeat his retail magic at chronically mismanaged JCP

N5 V4 C4
Muddy Waters 2011-11-21

Focus Media Holding Ltd. FMCN

Focus Media is the Olympus of China: it inflates its LCD screen count by 50%, systematically overpays for acquisitions it writes off, and enriches insiders at shareholders' expense.

N5 V2 C2
Pershing Square 2011-11-08

Lowe's Companies, Inc. LOW

LOW trades at 13.3x depressed EPS with ~8% FCF yield — cheap

N3 V3 C2
Muddy Waters 2011-06-02

Sino-Forest Corporation TRE

Sino-Forest is a fraud: its Authorized Intermediary structure fabricates timber revenue, its Yunnan holdings are overstated by ~$900M, and equity is worth less than $1 vs. $18.21.

N5 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2011-04-04

Duoyuan Global Water Inc. DGW

DGW is a massive fraud overstating revenue by 100x; forged PRC audits, empty factory, and related-party tunneling to Chairman Guo imply the stock is worth under $1.

N5 V2 C2
Elliott Management 2011-03-09

Iron Mountain Incorporated IRM

IRM's core storage is a compelling REIT — conversion unlocks ~$10.58/share in tax savings plus cap rate re-rating

N4 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2010-11-10

RINO International Corp. RINO

RINO is a near-zero: 94% of its reported revenue is fabricated, customers deny buying its FGD systems, and founders are draining cash via the VIE; fair value $2.45 vs. $15.52.

N5 V2 C2
Greenlight Capital 2010-10-13

The St. Joe Company JOE

St. Joe's Florida real estate empire is a value trap: developments are ghost towns, the airport catalyst is a bust, and the land is worth $7-10/share, not $24.54.

N5 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2010-07-02

Orient Paper Inc. ONP

Muddy Waters stands by its ONP fraud thesis: the Baoding factory is incapable of producing reported output, and the 'rejected $300K research fee' vendetta narrative is fabricated.

N4 V1 C1
Muddy Waters 2010-06-28

Orient Paper Inc. ONP

Orient Paper is a fraud — revenues overstated 27x in 2008 and ~40x in 2009, assets inflated 10x, ~$30M of investor raises misappropriated; fair value under $1 vs. $8.43.

N5 V2 C2
Pershing Square 2010-05-26

General Growth Properties GGP

GGP is worth ~$20/share sum-of-parts ($15 PF GGP + $5 GGO) vs. $14 price — 43% upside by year-end

N5 V4 C4
Pershing Square 2009-12-07

Mall REIT sector (long General Growth Properties) GGP

Mall REITs still trade at 7.8% cap rates vs. 6.3% Baa — a historically wide spread

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2009-10-20

Corrections Corporation of America CXW

CXW trades at a 12% cap rate vs ~7% for Health Care REITs with near-identical attributes

N5 V4 C3
Pershing Square 2009-10-06

Realty Income Corporation O

Tenant base is mostly junk-rated discretionary retailers with high bankruptcy risk

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2009-05-27

General Growth Properties GGWPQ

GGP's assets materially exceed liabilities — this is a liquidity bankruptcy, not insolvency

N5 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2009-05-11

Target Corporation TGT

Target board lacks senior operating experience in retail, credit cards, and real estate

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2008-10-29

Target Corporation TGT

Target owns 95% of its buildings — more real estate than any big-box peer, worth $39bn replacement value

N5 V3 C3
Greenlight Capital 2008-05-21

Lehman Brothers LEH

Lehman is using fair-value accounting tricks to hide CDO losses and inflate Level 3 marks; the firm is over-levered, opaque, and needs to recapitalize before the Fed has to step in.

N5 V2 C1
Pershing Square 2008-05-21

Wendy's International WEN

Wendy's is 93% a brand-royalty and real-estate business masquerading as a restaurant chain

N5 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2006-11-09

Borders Group, Inc. BGP

Book superstore industry is misunderstood — Amazon risk is exaggerated and superstores have gained share

N4 V3 C3
Greenlight Capital 2002-06-17

Allied Capital ALD

Allied appears to flout SEC fair value rules by using SBA-style accounting to overstate NAV

N5 V2 C1