"We believe Casino flowed this entire amount through EBITDA, thereby making its core France business appear to have a smaller profit decline than actually occurred."
Callouts & quotes from 662+ activist slides
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"Marathon could see over 60% upside at the average peer refining and retail EBITDA multiples, and 45% upside even at the lowest peer refining and retail multiples."
"Adjusted EBITDA ended up DECLINING at an ~11% CAGR between 2017 and 2020, resulting in a figure that was 50% BELOW the Company's initial 2018 Investor Day target."
"While Ferguson has expanded EBITDA margins over the last 5 years, Trian believes there is an opportunity to better leverage growth and improve margin flow through"
"The Company seemed confident it could achieve $1.3 billion of Adjusted EBITDA in its core business, but was less certain regarding outcomes for its TiO2 business"
"If TASK traded closer to peer multiples at 2.5x – 3.4x and 13x – 14x 2022E sales and EBITDA, its share price would be 25% – 50% lower ($17.80 – $26.70 per share)"
"When Huntsman first acquired Textile Effects in 2006, the business was healthy and profitable, with $92 million of Adjusted EBITDA, and strong growth prospects."
"Based on analyst estimates for 2018 EBITDA, PAH shares would be valued at more than $19, nearly 75% above current levels, if it traded at current peer multiples"
"If New Red Lobster were to trade at 6-7x EBITDA, as projected by many sell-side analysts, then approximately $850 million of real estate value could be trapped."
"If New Red Lobster were to trade at 6-7x EBITDA, as projected by many sell-side analysts, then approximately $850 million of real estate value could be trapped."
"Adjusted EBITDA guidance reduced $200m. Net CFO range raised to $4,100 - $4,500 from $2,800 - $3,200 prior to reflect working capital benefit of PCF prepayment."
"A widening gap between a company's presentation of Adjusted EBITDA and Spruce Point's Calculation of FCF is often a sign of current and future financial strain."
"FTAI Management Claims to be Immune From a Significant Supply-Demand Shift in the Market. But if This Were True, Why Would EBITDA Margins Be Falling So Quickly?"
"Based on analyst estimates for 2018 EBITDA, PAH shares would be valued at more than $19, nearly 75% above current levels, if it traded at current peer multiples"
"We believe Bristol-Myers standalone adjusted EBITDA margins could improve from 36% to 45%, with an opportunity to potentially expand margins further over time."
"Sometimes premiums are justified... however, using realistic sales and EBITDA forecasts, it is clear that U.S. Steel is significantly overvalued vs. its peers."
"If Nuvei traded closer to peer multiples at 6x – 9x and 15x – 20x 2022E sales and EBITDA, its share price would be 40% – 60% lower ($39.00 - $58.00 per share)"
"Our linear regression on similar companies suggests a valuation based on EBITDA of approximately 11.0x which equates to a price target of approximately $28.00"
"If we are largely correct about the inflation of France retail EBITDA, it means that the core business in France has been in a significant decline since 2013."
"Unlike its peers, executive incentive compensation at HMA through 2012 has been based solely on EBITDA – with no focus on per share metrics or quality metrics"
"Pioneer Power stands out as Limbach’s lowest-margin acquisition, with EBITDA margins meaningfully below those of its prior targets and of the legacy business."
"Cutting advertising is a quick and easy way to boost EBITDA and unit economics as the full impact on unit sales lags the near instantaneous reduction in cost."
"We believe ADT's margins will continue to expand over time, as they have done steadily over the past 5 years, driving EBITDA growth in excess of the top-line"
"Assuming a 7x Forward EBITDA multiple, even if the recovery is protracted or prolonged, we believe we will earn an attractive IRR at the current share price"
"Trading at 15.4x TTM EV/EBITDA, VRNT shares appear to be valued at a ~35% discount to the space on a TTM EV/EBTIDA basis, against the peer median of 23.6x."
"The frackers insist they are “investing for growth”, which leads investors to ignore the GAAP financials in favor of non-traditional metrics like EBITDAX."
"Just growing in line with the market would mean revenues in 2027 would be JPY 30 billion and EBITDA nearly JPY 7 billion larger than under Kao's targets"
"Although Prestige Brands may appear cheap vs its peers on a P/E and EBITDA multiple basis, PBH trades at a premium to its operating cash flow and sales."
"Excluding the value of its stake in REA Group, News Corp is valued at just 4x EBITDA, compared to The New York Times Company at greater than 15x EBITDA."
"Just growing in line with the market would mean revenues in 2027 would be JPY 30 billion and EBITDA nearly JPY 7 billion larger than under Kao's targets"
"The Company believed that it would nearly double Adjusted EBITDA in the Textile Effects business and raise Adjusted EBITDA margins into the mid-teens."
"While this contribution margin analysis implies $230mm of incremental EBITDA, we believe the actual number will be somewhere between $100mm and $230mm"
"GoDaddy expects to generate 7% revenue growth and 28% Adj. EBITDA margins in Q4'23E as growth headwinds abate and operating leverage improves margins"
"GoDaddy expects to generate 7% revenue growth and 28% Adj. EBITDA margins in Q4'23E as growth headwinds abate and operating leverage improves margins"
"AT&T and T-Mobile tower portfolios traded for premium multiples in excess of 21.0x EV / EBITDA, in comparison to CCI's recent multiple of only 17.3x"
"In Bristol-Myers base case projections for Celgene’s pipeline products, Adjusted EBITDA is negative for the first SIX years of the forecasted period"
"Ancora estimates the combined company will have improved EBITDA margins and free cash flow generation which should lead to a re-rating in valuation."
"Even though costs have been cut to end the cash burn, Peloton still achieves basically zero adjusted EBITDA versus the peer median of $406 million."
"While Saputo does not disclose profitability or Adjusted EBITDA for its Australian business, but claimed in 2018 it would be at respectable levels."
"AOL's CEO and CFO total cash compensation as a percentage of EBITDA of 1.7% is significantly higher than the Independent Peer Group median of 1.0%."
"If PowerSchool capitalized software development costs at the industry average of 3.7%, that would lead to a $23 million difference in Adj. EBITDA."
"All told, Reese’s trades at 30% of 2024 sales, 2.4x EBITDA and 4.8x EBIT, making it arguably the lowest multiple auto parts supplier in the world."
"Why would Perion reward the selling management team with destroying 440 basis points of margin and not incentivize them to increase EBITDA margin?"
"FTAI’s Leasing Segment Assumes a Material Portion of Aerospace Products’ COGS, Which Explains the ~1,000bps Discrepancy in EBITDA Margins Vs Peers"
"Generac's goals are heavily tied to EBITDA over actual cash flow. In fact, even the 25% “Individual Performance Goals” references back to EBITDA."
"Spruce Point believes EBITDA does not accurately reflect Sunnova's financial performance and paints an overly optimistic picture of the business."
"Actual FY 2020 Adjusted EBITDA was 6% below threshold, which should have resulted in NO annual cash bonus payment if targets had not been revised"
"Actual FY 2020 Adjusted EBITDA was 6% below threshold, which should have resulted in NO annual cash bonus payment if targets had not been revised"
"Wall Street analysts estimated Adjusted EBITDA would be 30% BELOW the Company's initial 2018 Investor Day target even before the global pandemic."
"After the drops, MPLX will still deliver 8% EBITDA growth... leading to 8% growth in distributable cash flow and 12% growth in GP distributions."
"If Riot can monetize its power in-line with recent precedent transactions, we believe it could generate more than $1.6 billion of annual EBITDA."
"Take two hypothetical identical mills – 500ktpa capacity; $50 million in maintenance capex, one focused on EBITDA/MT, one focused on utilization"
"Assuming a 9.0x EV/EBITDA normalized valuation, the implied equity would be in the NZD183m-230m range equivalent to NZD 0.37-0.47 per RBC share."
"After this transaction, Pro Forma McDonald's would be leveraged approximately 3.5x Total Debt/EBITDA or at a 25% Debt to Enterprise Value ratio."
"Note that the EBITDA margin is so high because of Site Sharing's abnormally high rents, which were apparently up to 3.0x market on some towers."
"If we right-size the cost structure to the benchmark, there should be $400 - $500 million of EBITDA from the current subscription revenue base."
"The Company’s financial condition was deteriorating significantly with Net Debt / EBITDA > 10x and EBITDA interest coverage hovering around 1x."
"European auto parts suppliers look very similar, but a little cheaper. Again half of sales, but more like 4x EBITDA, 7.5x EBIT and 7x earnings."
"If met coal prices went to $300, Teck would generate over $1 billion Canadian dollars of incremental EBITDA each quarter vs. analyst estimates."
"We believe that significant cost savings opportunities exist across various functional areas at Bristol-Myers to substantially improve EBITDA."