357 documents showing 241–300
Date
Fund
Target
Thesis
Scores
Jan 23, 2019
Spruce Point Capital
Amdocs Limited
DOX
Spruce Point sees 25-50% downside in Amdocs (DOX): a Guernsey-domiciled telecom-IT vendor whose steady margins, opaque insider selling via Pines Quest, and dot-com-era accounting tricks signal $30-$45 per share.
N4
V3
Dec 13, 2018
Spruce Point Capital
XPO Logistics, Inc.
XPO
XPO is a United-Rentals-style roll-up masking financial strain with aggressive accounting and a felon-linked board; normalized EPS is 47% overstated, implying 40–60% downside.
N5
V3
Oct 31, 2018
Spruce Point Capital
Dollarama Inc.
DOL
Dollarama trades 50% above peers as a 'dollar store' now selling $4 goods; reversing FX hedges, Dollar Tree's arrival and governance red flags imply ~40% downside to C$24.60.
N4
V3
Oct 17, 2018
Spruce Point Capital
Mercury Systems Inc.
MRCY
Mercury Systems faces 50-60% downside as Supermicro-hack exposure, missing cyber leadership, hidden A/R factoring, and the sector's richest multiple collide with rising DFARS compliance costs.
N4
V3
Oct 04, 2018
Muddy Waters
Manulife Financial Corporation
MFC
Muddy Waters is short Manulife because a Saskatchewan verdict due by year-end could force MFC to accept unlimited deposits at a guaranteed 4%+ rate — an unhedgeable bleed its own expert admits could cause insolvency.
N4
V2
Sep 05, 2018
Spruce Point Capital
Weis Markets, Inc.
WMK
Weis Markets is the most expensive U.S. supermarket masking -1-2% organic decline with aggressive accounting and shrinking disclosures; Spruce Point sees 45-65% downside.
N4
V3
Aug 07, 2018
Spruce Point Capital
Maxar Technologies
MAXR
Maxar's MDA-DigitalGlobe merger masks a collapsing satellite cycle and the most aggressive accounting Spruce Point has ever seen, leaving 5.8x-levered MAXR with 100% downside risk.
N5
V3
Jul 25, 2018
Muddy Waters
TAL Education Group
TAL
TAL Education's core Peiyou business is shrinking, not 'healthy' as CFO Rong Luo claims; under every reasonable model TAL's FY2018 Q3-Q4 disclosures fail to reconcile.
N4
V1
Jul 23, 2018
Muddy Waters
TAL Education Group
TAL
TAL's own Peiyou Q3 disclosures, common-sized, mathematically imply offline enrollment declined YoY — contradicting the growth narrative and signaling fabricated results.
N4
V2
Jul 19, 2018
Spruce Point Capital
2U, Inc.
TWOU
2U's one-size-fits-all OPM model is being disrupted by lower-take-rate fee-for-service rivals; FOIA-documented program failures imply 30-50% downside to $47-$65/share.
N4
V3
Jul 02, 2018
Muddy Waters
TAL Education Group
TAL
TAL inflated Firstleap's acquired deferred revenue by 90-175%, pumping $21-29M of fake profit through FY2017 via an above-the-line accounting lever obscured by an overlooked small acquisition.
N4
V2
Jun 27, 2018
Spruce Point Capital
Momo, Inc.
MOMO
Momo's 'blowout' live-video numbers hide a SAIC fraud charge, 123 undisclosed VIE subs, an illegal gambling site, and a fading KOL base — 30-50% downside to $23-$32.
N4
V3
Jun 13, 2018
Muddy Waters
TAL Education Group
TAL
TAL is a real business with fake financials: two asset-parking transactions inflated FY2016-FY2018 pre-tax profits by $153M (28.4%) while Deloitte China was starved of audit hours.
N5
V2
Jun 07, 2018
Spruce Point Capital
Healthcare Trust of America, Inc.
HTA
HTA's suspiciously flat Same-Property NOI growth mirrors Brixmor's pre-restatement pattern; Spruce Point sees 20-40% downside to $15-$20 once the accounting unravels.
N5
V3
May 17, 2018
Spruce Point Capital
U.S. Concrete Inc
USCR
USCR's 21% gross margins and Adj EBITDA growth are engineered via capital leases and overcapitalized truck costs; CEO Sandbrook should resign and shares face 60-90% downside to $6-$25.
N4
V3
Apr 23, 2018
Greenlight Capital
Assured Guaranty
AGO
Assured Guaranty is a melting-ice-cube bond insurer aggressively returning capital it hasn't earned; Puerto Rico losses alone (2-4x reserves) will force a capital raise or strip the AA rating it needs to write new business.
N5
V2
Apr 04, 2018
Spruce Point Capital
Globant SA
GLOB
Globant is a poorly organized digital-IT roll-up using accounting games and Luxembourg disclosure loopholes to mask decelerating organic growth; shares warrant 40-50% downside to $24.50-$29.50.
N4
V3
Apr 01, 2018
Kerrisdale Capital
The St. Joe Company
JOE
St. Joe's Florida Panhandle land bank is worth a fraction of what bulls claim; absent the promised population boom, the stock is materially overvalued and a short.
N4
V3
Mar 16, 2018
Spruce Point Capital
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions
KTOS
Kratos is an overhyped drone play run by executives tied to the Titan FCPA scandal; with the weakest margins in defense and a recent Director fraud indictment, we see 40%-70% downside.
N4
V3
Feb 08, 2018
Muddy Waters
IQE plc
IQE
Muddy Waters is short IQE: the compound-semi maker inflated 2015/2016 net income by 58.5%/25.4% via transactions with its Cardiff University JV — an alter ego, not an arm's-length partner.
N4
V2
Feb 07, 2018
Spruce Point Capital
Realty Income Corp
O
Realty Income's 'magic dividend' flywheel is broken — true same-store rents are -0.8% (not +1.2%), and as rates rise and tenants disintermediate the stock re-rates 30-45% lower to $28-$35.
N4
V3
Jan 31, 2018
Muddy Waters
OSI Systems
OSIS
OSIS's rebuttal fails: S2 Albania's financials prove ICMS contributed no capital, making its 49% concession stake an unjustified conduit for corruption and confirming management's lost credibility.
N4
V1
Jan 25, 2018
Spruce Point Capital
Ballard Power Systems
BLDP
Ballard's 167% 2017 rally rests on a fragile China fuel-cell story with weak partners and zero insider skin; expect a repeat of the Azure failure and 35-70% downside to $1.15-$2.50.
N4
V3
Dec 20, 2017
Muddy Waters
China Internet Nationwide Financial Services Inc.
CIFS
CIFS is an old-style China reverse-merger fraud dressed up as a Reg A+ IPO; SAIC filings show 5x revenue overstatement, every disclosed borrower is a sham, and the equity is worthless.
N4
V2
Dec 06, 2017
Muddy Waters
OSI Systems, Inc.
OSIS
OSIS is rotten to the core: the Albania concession was obtained via an apparent bribe, the Mexico turnkey is egregiously priced and up for renewal, and FCPA liability could erase a large chunk of the $1.6bn market cap.
N5
V2
Sep 20, 2017
Viceroy Research
MiMedx Group
MDXG
research note
N1
V1
Jun 29, 2017
Muddy Waters
Prothena Corp PLC
PRTA
Short PRTA: publicly-available NEOD001 data does not show efficacy — organ responses are likely driven by prior PCD chemo, not the drug, and $1.5B peak sales are unrealistic.
N4
V2
Jun 16, 2017
Muddy Waters
Man Wah Holdings
1999.HK
Man Wah's response fails to address Muddy Waters' core fraud allegations: suspicious Macau profit-shifting, export revenue gaps vs. Panjiva data, tax inconsistencies, and undisclosed debt all remain unexplained.
N4
V2
Jun 15, 2017
Viceroy Research
Caesarstone Ltd.
CSTE
CSTE's bull case has disappeared: the touted Lowe's Transform deal is absent from shelves, sales agents are phantoms, and financials look overstated versus Cosentino.
N4
V2
Jun 05, 2017
Muddy Waters
Asanko Gold Inc.
AKG
Asanko's reassurances on Nkran are 'puppies and rainbows': fresh drone images show wall failures, reserve accounting is non-compliant, and insider share counts don't reconcile with management's 'never sold' claim.
N4
V3
May 31, 2017
Muddy Waters
Asanko Gold Inc.
AKG
Muddy Waters is short AKG: flawed geology, a collapsing Nkran pit, and a 2018 liquidity crunch make the Ghana gold miner highly likely to end up a zero.
N4
V2
May 11, 2017
Pershing Square
Herbalife
HLF
Post-2012-short results confirm Herbalife's pyramid thesis: individual markets pop-and-drop, Q1'17 China growth is a pull-forward illusion, and questionable EPS add-backs mask structural decline.
N4
V3
Apr 24, 2017
Pershing Square
Pershing Square Holdings Portfolio (MDLZ, APD, CMG, HHC, NOMD, HLF short, FNMA/FMCC)
PSH
Pershing Square's 2017 European investor meeting recaps a concentrated multi-position book (MDLZ, APD, CMG, HHC, NOMD, HLF short, GSEs) and asks investors to approve a London LSE listing and 5% buyback to close PSH's NAV discount.
N3
V3
Jan 26, 2017
Pershing Square
Pershing Square Holdings Portfolio (multiple)
PSH
2016 losses of -13.5% were driven overwhelmingly by Valeant; balance of portfolio performed well
N3
V3
Jan 26, 2017
Pershing Square
Pershing Square Holdings Portfolio (multi-position)
PSH
After a -13.5% 2016 driven by Valeant, Pershing recaps a concentrated portfolio (Mondelez, Air Products, Restaurant Brands, Chipotle) where margin and turnaround catalysts should restore long-term outperformance versus the S&P.
N3
V3
Jan 12, 2017
Spruce Point Capital
MGP Ingredients, Inc.
MGPI
MGPI's whiskey-premiumization rerating is an illusion: Diageo is going in-house, inventory is stranded, and insiders are selling — shares should collapse 60-70% to $16-$21.
N4
V3
Dec 19, 2016
Muddy Waters
China Huishan Dairy Holdings
6863.HK
Huishan's revenue is fabricated: tax-bureau data, cow-farm photos, and e-commerce scrapes all show the reported top line is dramatically overstated — the stock is a zero.
N4
V2
Dec 16, 2016
Muddy Waters
China Huishan Dairy Holdings
6863 HK
Huishan is a fraud worth close to zero — fabricated alfalfa self-sufficiency inflates margins, RMB 1.6bn of CapEx is fictitious, and Chairman Yang has siphoned farms to a related party.
N5
V2
Dec 13, 2016
Muddy Waters
Nidec Corp.
6594 JP
Nidec is a gigantic stock promotion: zero organic growth and aggressive accounting hide behind a Facebook-like multiple — fair value JPY 4,764, ~52% downside.
N5
V2
Aug 29, 2016
Muddy Waters
St. Jude Medical
STJ
STJ's rebuttal to Muddy Waters' cybersecurity short report is 80% fluff and 20% substance, with admissions and deception cues that confirm its cardiac devices remain unsafe and need recall.
N4
V1
Aug 25, 2016
Muddy Waters
St. Jude Medical, Inc.
STJ
St. Jude's $23B cardiac-device franchise rests on a Merlin ecosystem so insecure that hackers can crash pacemakers from 50 feet — a recall and two-year remediation imply 50%+ downside and likely covenant breach.
N5
V2
Aug 10, 2016
Muddy Waters
Ströer SE & Co. KGaA
SAX
Muddy Waters publishes the translated transcript of Ströer's June 2016 AGM, where CEO Udo Müller defends the company against MW's short attack amid sharp shareholder questions.
N3
V1
Jul 20, 2016
Pershing Square
Herbalife
HLF
The FTC's July 2016 Herbalife complaint and forced restructuring vindicate Pershing's pyramid-scheme short thesis; normalized EPS collapses to $1.42–$2.22, far below the ~$65 share price.
N5
V3
Jul 15, 2016
Pershing Square
Herbalife Ltd.
HLF
FTC findings satisfy the Koscot/Omnitrition/Vemma legal test for a pyramid scheme
N2
V1
Apr 28, 2016
Muddy Waters
Stroer SE & Co. KGaA
SAX
Stroer's defense fails to rebut Muddy Waters' core allegations of overstated organic growth, misleading cash-flow netting and freeXmedia self-dealing, with a CIA polygrapher flagging Muller's response as deceptive.
N4
V1
Apr 26, 2016
Pershing Square
Multiple (portfolio-level LP update: MDLZ, APD, ZTS, QSR, CP, HHC, VRX, PAH, NOMD, HLF short)
Mondelez 13% EBIT margin vs 17-26% peers implies +600-700 bps optimized EBIT upside under 3G playbook
N3
V3
Apr 26, 2016
Pershing Square
Multiple holdings (Pershing Square portfolio)
Fund-level recap after Q1 2016's -25.6% drawdown: Ackman defends the contrarian book — MDLZ margin upside, APD turnaround, CP execution — while reaffirming the Herbalife pyramid-scheme short.
N3
V3
Apr 21, 2016
Muddy Waters
Ströer SE & Co. KGaA
SAX
Ströer's digital-transformation narrative is hollow: organic growth is 10x overstated, EBITDA and FCF are inflated, and insider self-dealing rivals Chinese fraud cases — short.
N4
V2
Mar 08, 2016
Muddy Waters
Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA
CO
Casino's claimed France recovery is fiction: Mercialys property gains inflate EBITDA, suppliers are being stretched, and the CFO's earnings-call language shows deception clusters.
N5
V1
Jan 28, 2016
Pershing Square
Pershing Square portfolio (multi-holding LP update: MDLZ, VRX, APD, ZTS, CP, QSR, HHC, PAH, FNMA/FMCC, HLF short)
After a -20.5% 2015, Pershing concedes mistakes on Valeant/Platform/CP but argues its portfolio holdings trade at a substantial discount to intrinsic value and that permanent capital lets it wait for convergence.
N4
V3
Jan 13, 2016
Muddy Waters
Groupe Casino
CO
Casino is a highly-levered, deteriorating French retailer being hollowed out by controlling shareholder Naouri and using property-sale gains to inflate EBITDA; equity worth ~€7 per share.
N4
V2
Dec 16, 2015
Muddy Waters
Groupe Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA
CO FP
Casino's financial statements mask 8.9x leverage and inflated EBITDA via related-party Mercialys real-estate sales; shares are worth €6.91 vs €48.97, an 86% decline.
N4
V2
Oct 21, 2015
Citron Research
Valeant Pharmaceuticals
VRX
Valeant is channel-stuffing through a web of captive specialty pharmacies (Philidor, R&O, plus cloned shells) to fabricate invoices and book phantom revenue — a potential Pharmaceutical Enron; price target $50.
N5
V3
Oct 15, 2015
Muddy Waters
TeliaSonera AB
TLSN
Short TeliaSonera: disclosed Uzbekistan bribery is only the tip — ~SEK 17bn of suspect Eurasia/Nepal payments plus a multi-billion DOJ FCPA settlement threaten the dividend and cut stub fair value to SEK 27-29.
N4
V2
Aug 01, 2015
Pershing Square
Herbalife Ltd.
HLF
Herbalife's fastest-growing segment — China, ~10% of sales — operates as an illegal pyramid scheme, with royalties disguised in SEC filings as 'China Sales Employees' SG&A to hide identical multi-level compensation.
N5
V2
Jun 26, 2015
Pershing Square
Herbalife Ltd.
HLF
A leaked 71-minute video shows Herbalife CEO Michael Johnson admitting the business is a 'lottery ticket' with 'pyramiding' — Pershing demands he release the tape and the distributor failure data.
N3
V1
Apr 28, 2015
Pershing Square
Pershing Square Portfolio (multiple positions)
Pershing Square's 2015 portfolio recap: 9 positions led by the Allergan win, new Valeant stake, ongoing CP/APD transformations, and the Herbalife pyramid-scheme short.
N3
V3
Apr 09, 2015
Muddy Waters
Noble Group
NOBL
Muddy Waters is short Noble Group: a cash-burning commodities trader that manufactures EBITDA via sham affiliate transactions like the PT ALH $46M negative-goodwill scheme to keep credit flowing.
N4
V1
Feb 26, 2015
Pershing Square
Herbalife
HLF
Herbalife is a pyramid scheme built on recruitment, not retail: former distributors describe losing thousands while 88% of participants earn no commission.
N4
V1
Jan 29, 2015
Pershing Square
Pershing Square portfolio (multi-target)
Pershing Square delivered 40.4% net returns in 2014, driven by Allergan's forced sale to Actavis, Herbalife's 52% decline, and Canadian Pacific's continued transformation under Hunter Harrison.
N3
V3