Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck follow up
2015-05-01 · 47 pages

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

N 4 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 3 Craft
Original source ↗

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Traditional P/E ignores Valeant's 'Platform Value' from disciplined M&A capital allocation

  2. 2

    Valeant earned >20% unlevered IRR on $20bn+ of acquisitions since 2008 (e.g., B&L $8.7bn -> $21bn+)

  3. 3

    Stock worth $330+/share vs. ~$223 today, before any large transformative deal or pipeline credit

Primary demands

  • Investors should value Valeant using a 'Platform Value' framework that credits future value-enhancing acquisitions, not just current earnings multiples
  • Re-rate Valeant at ~16x forward earnings reflecting durable business (20x) and patent cliff (8x) blended

KPIs cited

Total shareholder return since CEO Pearson appointment
~45x / 4,502% from 2/1/2008 to 5/1/2015
Unlevered IRR on acquisitions since 2008
>20% before tax synergies, ~30%+ after-tax, on $20bn+ deployed
Bausch & Lomb value creation
Acquired for $8.7bn in 2013; current value ~$21-24bn (130-160% return)
B&L organic growth under Valeant
Increased from 5% to 11%
B&L EBITDA margin under Valeant
Increased from 21% to ~50%
2016 EBITDA guidance
$7.5bn+ implying ~$16+ Adj. EPS
Current trading multiple
~14x management's $16 2016 EPS guidance
2020 EPS scenarios
$23 (no M&A) to $38.60 (with $20bn/yr M&A)
Acquired-asset acquisition multiple assumption
4x forward sales / ~8.5x FCF, implying ~90% unlevered return at 16x exit
Cost of debt
5.75% (Salix transaction at ~5%)
Current leverage
>5.5x Net Debt/Pro-Forma LTM EBITDA, modeled to 4x by 2020
Late-stage pipeline value (ex-Salix)
Up to ~$40/share at 8x peak earnings

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (8)

Notes

Long thesis (defense/promotion) of an existing portfolio holding, not a contrarian short. Frames Valeant alongside other 'platform' companies (Jarden, PAH, Nomad, Danaher, AB InBev, TransDigm) as a misunderstood acquirer whose value comes from disciplined capital allocation. Standard Pershing Square production: blue/green color blocks, simple title-and-bullet layouts, annotated share-price charts, modest data viz. The B&L 'before/after Valeant ownership' value-creation table (p.20) and the 2020 EPS scenario grid (p.28) are the analytic centerpieces. Sum-of-parts splits the business into 'Durable' (~70% earnings, 20x multiple) and 'Patent Cliff' (~30%, 8x DCF). No villain or attacker tone -- this is educational/analytical. Famously aged badly: Valeant collapsed in late 2015 after Citron's short report and Philidor pricing scandal, and Pershing exited at multi-billion-dollar loss in 2017.