Contrarian Corpus
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Callouts & quotes from 875+ activist slides

Every emphasised callout and every pulled quote, extracted slide-by-slide. Search by keyword, filter by slide type or by source.

Showing 541–600 of 875 matching "estimate"
callout villain critique

"None of this changes the fact that Oklo's cost estimate for the initial core of fuel for their reactor design is too low by a factor of 5x or more."

Oklo Inc. · OKLO Kerrisdale Capital · p. 14
callout ceo quote

"Therefore, we believe iKentoo had very little growth from 2017-2019, and we estimate its ARPU was $100 per month, or 50% below LSPD's ARPU of $200."

Lightspeed Commerce, Inc. · LSPD Spruce Point Capital · p. 77
callout villain critique

"Assuming an implied purchase price of ~$30 billion, we estimate pipeline products will need to generate ~$15 billion of revenue to be NPV neutral!"

Bristol-Myers Squibb · BMY Starboard Value · p. 122
callout peer gap

"Based on a global peer benchmarking analysis in the dairy industry, we estimate Saputo spends the least amount of its revenue on R&D expenditures."

Saputo Inc. · TSX:SAP Spruce Point Capital · p. 123
quote sop buildup

"In instances where we do not have reporting from our partners, we estimate revenue based on information available to us at the time. — Intuit 10-K"

Intuit Inc. · INTU Spruce Point Capital · p. 14
quote ceo quote

"Our recurring revenue backlog represents an estimate of first year revenue from Closed sales that has not yet been recognized. — Q4 2018 Conf Call"

Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. · BR Spruce Point Capital · p. 26
callout precedent table

"In a majority of the cases, the share price has met or exceeded our downside estimate of intrinsic value. The average share price decline is 57%."

Maxar Technologies · MAXR Spruce Point Capital · p. 4
callout other

"The range of implied recoveries generate a net present value loss between $2.7 billion to $4.5 billion, with a midpoint estimate of $3.6 billion."

Assured Guaranty · AGO Greenlight Capital · p. 47
callout villain critique

"Spruce Point finds a large deviation between our estimated ending gross PP&E and actual PP&E in 2023 which is the period the auditor was changed."

Monster Beverage Corp. · MNST Spruce Point Capital · p. 63
callout villain critique

"Spruce Point estimates that Porch has a maximum potential liability associated with financial guarantees made to home inspectors of $1.1 billion."

Porch Group Inc · PRCH Spruce Point Capital · p. 47
callout other

"The net effect of this extra year of customer life on the books is that we estimate EHTH’s constrained LTV for MA members is overstated by 28.2%."

eHealth Inc. · EHTH Muddy Waters · p. 6
callout villain critique

"One estimated that 25-50% of Nevro’s revenue comes from surgery centers pushing patients into "one stimulator and then another and then another.""

Nevro Corp. · NVRO Scorpion Capital · p. 230
callout before after

"Wall Street analysts estimated Adjusted EBITDA would be 30% BELOW the Company's initial 2018 Investor Day target even before the global pandemic."

Huntsman Corporation · HUN Starboard Value · p. 18
quote appendix data

"Veronis Suhler Stevenson estimates consumer magazine advertising spending will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6.4% from 2005 - 2009(a)."

Time Warner Inc. · TWX Carl Icahn · p. 139
quote ceo quote

"Our one-year price target of $68 is based on a blended rate of 29.9x EV/EBITDA multiple of our FY20 EBITDA estimate of $123mn. — Imperial Capital"

Axon Enterprise (formerly TASER) · AAXN Spruce Point Capital · p. 68
callout appendix data

"The reference range of $39.5 - $43.5 billion (12.2x - 13.4x 2006PF OIBDA) is at the high end of the range of Wall Street estimates for Networks."

Time Warner Inc. · TWX Carl Icahn · p. 314
callout precedent table

"The magnitude of the "discount" at TWX, as estimated by various research analysts, is approximately 10% - 15% of the gross equity value of TWX."

Time Warner Inc. · TWX Carl Icahn · p. 265
callout cover

"We believe the long-term risk from AVs is limited and estimate that Uber’s share price is likely to more than double over the next 3 to 4 years"

Uber Technologies · UBER Pershing Square · p. 1
callout villain critique

"Consumables revenue of $3.9MM divided by 92 machines in the field yields $43K of consumable revenue per machine – or 2-3 runs, by our estimate."

Berkeley Lights · BLI Scorpion Capital · p. 21
callout kpi overview

"By funding itself with 80% equity, we estimate the Company loses approximately $105 million annually or $286,540 per day of shareholders' money"

ADT Corporation · ADT Corvex · p. 25
callout other

"If met coal prices went to $300, Teck would generate over $1 billion Canadian dollars of incremental EBITDA each quarter vs. analyst estimates."

Teck Resources · TECK Greenlight Capital · p. 54
callout other

"We believe the long-term risk from AVs is limited and estimate that Uber’s share price is likely to more than double over the next 3 to 4 years"

Pershing Square Holdings · PSH Pershing Square · p. 67
quote villain critique

""If I were to take a conservative estimate, well over 50% of GFL's 100+ acquisitions I'd characterize as a failure." — Canada Industry Observer"

GFL Environmental Inc. · GFL Spruce Point Capital · p. 44
quote villain critique

"We estimate fair value using an equally weighted combination of discounted cash flows and multiples of revenue and EBITDA. — 2014 Annual Report"

U.S. Concrete Inc · USCR Spruce Point Capital · p. 21
callout valuation reveal

"At McDonald's current price of approximately $33 per share, we estimate Pro Forma McDonald's dividend / FCF yield would be approximately 6.7%."

McDonald's Corporation · MCD Pershing Square · p. 51
callout sop buildup

"TWX does not break down revenues by business line within Filmed Entertainment, however, an estimate of the division's revenues are as follows:"

Time Warner Inc. · TWX Carl Icahn · p. 118
callout appendix data

"These are our estimates, and we acknowledge that for 2026, we are 30-40% higher than consensus, which we think is justified based on our work."

Vitesco Technologies · VTSC Greenlight Capital · p. 43
callout villain critique

"We estimate $661m of costs have been capitalized in software since 2007, yet only $217m has gone through the income statement as amortization."

Mettler-Toledo International, Inc. · MTD Spruce Point Capital · p. 17
callout other

"We estimate $661m of costs have been capitalized in software since 2007, yet only $217m has gone through the income statement as amortization."

Mettler-Toledo International, Inc. · MTD Spruce Point Capital · p. 66
callout thesis headline

"We believe management's plan is achievable, and the ARPU tailwind from Pulse will lead to ADT exceeding revenue and profit estimates over time"

ADT Corporation · ADT Corvex · p. 21
callout sop buildup

"Based on our estimates, private-pay Independent Living (IL), Assisted Living (AL) and Memory Care units trade at implied 5.00%-5.50% cap rates"

callout sop buildup

"Valued at 8x its estimated peak earnings contribution, Valeant's late-stage pipeline, excluding Salix, may be worth as much as ~$40 per share"

Unknown · p. 31
callout appendix methodology

"We believe EBITDA is the incorrect metric for the Company and estimated customer value is calculated with numerous unpredictable assumptions."

Sunnova Energy International Inc. · NOVA Spruce Point Capital · p. 89
callout ceo quote

"At a revenue run rate of $40-50 million per year, we estimate that Patch would still lose approximately $79 million to $133 million per year."

AOL, Inc. · AOL Starboard Value · p. 41
callout sop buildup

"Valued at 8x its estimated peak earnings contribution, Valeant’s late-stage pipeline, excluding Salix, may be worth as much as ~$40 per share"

quote appendix data

"Interview with Former Tax Equity Buyer at Major Bank, December 2021. NB: RUN Investor Relations estimated an 8-9% return to us. — Footnote 51"

Sunrun Inc. · RUN Muddy Waters · p. 31
callout villain critique

"We estimate management divested approximately $24m of stock in a non-transparent manner by not filing timely Form 4 statements with the SEC."

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. · AMR Spruce Point Capital · p. 91
callout villain critique

"Therefore, Barclays is estimating $1.13 per liter of capacity addition, or 77% higher than our estimated historical cost of $0.64 per liter!"

Oatly Group AB · OTLY Spruce Point Capital · p. 42
callout ceo quote

"Excluding the volume pull-forward, we estimate reported net sales would have declined 23% to 25%, or 17% to 20% on a constant-currency basis"

Herbalife · HLF Pershing Square · p. 9
callout ceo quote

"Analysts estimate that gross margins will magically increase, yet none are aware of Axon’s significant exposure to China imports and tariffs"

Axon Enterprise (formerly TASER) · AAXN Spruce Point Capital · p. 40
callout other

"However, Wall Street analysts have historically been overly optimistic in their estimates for both Celgene’s marketed and pipeline products."

Bristol-Myers Squibb · BMY Starboard Value · p. 132
callout executive summary

"We estimate that an appropriate valuation for SE would be $41 to $48 per share (+32% to +55% upside) if it were to take the following steps"

callout ceo quote

"Bristol-Myers management projections for the Company on a standalone business are significantly better than Wall Street consensus estimates"

Bristol-Myers Squibb · BMY Starboard Value · p. 164
callout valuation reveal

"Using our base case modeling assumptions, we estimate that Freddie Mac shares could be worth ~$39 by year-end 2027 when fully recapitalized"

callout valuation reveal

"Using our base case modeling assumptions, we estimate that Freddie Mac shares could be worth ~$39 by year-end 2027 when fully recapitalized"

callout valuation reveal

"At over 18x our FY26E Adj. EBITDA estimate, Limbach trades at a valuation premium we view as completely disconnected from its fundamentals."

Limbach Holdings, Inc. · LMB Spruce Point Capital · p. 86
callout peer gap

"After de-consolidation, the TRP's observed multiple discount to ENB of 1.4x increases substantially to 4.8x based on 2015 EBITDA estimates."

callout other

"Excluding ISRG and these acquisitions, we estimate that UFPT would have grown sales by a marginal 0.4% in 2024 as shown in the table below."

UFP Technologies, Inc. · UFPT Wolfpack Research · p. 7
callout ceo quote

"Based on our research, GFL paid $84m. We estimate Bestway had $30m of sales, and GFL paid a hefty 2.8x / 10x multiple of sales and EBITDA."

GFL Environmental Inc. · GFL Spruce Point Capital · p. 85
callout peer gap

"We estimate that John Crane would trade at a premium multiple in a range of 13-14x forward EBITDA if it were separately listed in the U.S."

Smiths Group plc · SMIN Engine Capital · p. 6
callout other

"We estimate that four of 2U’s top seven programs (shown in red) enrollment trends may be experiencing flat or declining enrollment trends."

2U, Inc. · TWOU Spruce Point Capital · p. 15
callout sop buildup

"We estimate that every dollar Starbucks spends building a new store in the U.S. or China is worth $10 to $15 shortly after the store opens"

Starbucks · SBUX Pershing Square · p. 9
callout valuation reveal

"Using our base case modeling assumptions, we estimate that Fannie Mae shares could be worth ~$35 by year-end 2026 when fully recapitalized"

callout peer gap

"Why does Verint – whose sales, per our estimates, contracted in FY19 – trade at a sales multiple similar to that for which BroadSoft sold?"

Verint Systems, Inc. · VRNT Spruce Point Capital · p. 104
callout villain critique

"What happened to management's pre-deal 5-6% revenue growth estimate for Almost Family? What happened to “better, faster, stronger” growth?"

LHC Group, Inc. · LHCG Spruce Point Capital · p. 15
callout villain critique

"In our opinion, Eurofins purchased the property from a straw party for an estimated ~€4 million premium after a nine-month holding period."

Eurofins Scientific SE · ERF Muddy Waters · p. 28
callout valuation reveal

"Using our base case modeling assumptions, we estimate that Fannie Mae shares could be worth ~$35 by year-end 2026 when fully recapitalized"

callout peer gap

"We believe AOL's Display business is highly unprofitable due to its operating expenses that are estimated to exceed $1.1 billion per year."

AOL, Inc. · AOL Starboard Value · p. 22