Contrarian Corpus

422 documents showing 361–420

Muddy Waters 2013-08-01

American Tower AMT

AMT's international growth is a de facto lending / FX carry trade masking deteriorating economics, and ~$250M appears to have vanished from its Site Sharing acquisition.

N4 V1 C1
Glenview 2013-08-01

Health Management Associates HMA

HMA's incumbent board destroyed 25% of independent value before rushing a sale to Community Health Systems; Glenview's Fresh Alternative board protects the deal and recovers upside.

N4 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2013-07-17

American Tower Corp AMT

AMT is a Strong Sell at $44.57 (40% downside): a $250M Brazil accounting discrepancy hints at fraud, international growth is a disguised lending/carry trade, and Wi-Fi will erode tower economics.

N4 V2 C2
Glenview 2013-07-01

Health Management Associates HMA

HMA's insular 17-year-tenure board drove a Lost Decade of <1% TSR; replace all directors with Glenview's blue-chip slate to fix governance, compensation, and capital allocation.

N5 V3 C3
Sandell 2013-06-01

Spectra Energy Corp SE

Spectra Energy's conglomerate structure masks a premier energy infrastructure franchise; a three-step breakup — drop-down to SEP, WE IPO, DCP separation — unlocks $41-$48/share (32-55% upside).

N4 V3 C3
Starboard Value 2013-05-13

DSP Group, Inc. DSPG

DSP has burned $557M on failed new products while its profitable cordless-telephony core erodes; new independent directors can right-size costs and unlock SiTel-level margins.

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2013-05-08

Procter & Gamble PG

P&G earns $4 EPS today but should earn $6 by FY2016 at 24% EBIT margin

N4 V3 C2
Starboard Value 2013-04-30

Tessera Technologies Inc. TSRA

Tessera has squandered $517M on the failing Digital Optics business while its core patent-licensing franchise shrinks; Starboard's six-director slate and IP-focused plan can unlock best-in-class 60-70% EBITDA margins.

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2013-04-09

Herbalife Ltd. HLF

Herbalife distributors earn 10x more from recruitment than from retail product sales

N5 V2 C1
Relational Investors 2013-03-01

The Timken Company TKR

Timken's bearings-plus-steel conglomerate masks value; separating the two pure-plays unlocks 29% upside to $68 and ends Timken-family board capture entrenching the status quo.

N4 V3 C2
Elliott Management 2013-03-01

Hess Corporation HES

Hess intrinsic value is $96-$128/share vs. discounted current price - ~$50bn TEV trapped in opaque conglomerate

N5 V4 C4
JANA Partners 2013-02-19

Agrium AGU

Agrium rebuts JANA's break-up case: the sum-of-parts math is contrived, Retail already trades at ~9x within Agrium, and no analyst endorses JANA's methodology.

N4 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2013-02-08

Olam International Ltd. OLAM

Olam's Q2 2013 results confirm Muddy Waters' Strong Sell thesis: debt is spiraling (9.5x EBITDA), cash is burning, and management's acquisitions and Gabon project reveal haphazard planning.

N3 V1 C1
Elliott Management 2013-01-29

Hess Corporation HES

Hess intrinsic value is over $126/share — 94-153% upside to the current price

N5 V4 C4
Muddy Waters 2013-01-24

Focus Media Holding Ltd. FMCN

New BVI registry evidence proves FMCN lied about its mobile-phone VIE acquisitions, reinforcing the long-running fraud thesis just as Carlyle's LBO consortium prepares to overpay.

N4 V1 C1
TPG-Axon 2013-01-18

SandRidge Energy SD

CEO Tom Ward's family entities systematically flipped Mississippian Lime mineral rights to SandRidge and competed for adjacent acreage—evidence of self-dealing that warrants a board investigation and potential termination.

N4 V3 C4
JANA Partners 2013-01-01

Agrium Inc. AGU

Agrium's board has no retail-distribution expertise to manage a business that's half its value; JANA's 5 nominees can unlock cost, capital and conglomerate-discount value worth hundreds of millions.

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2012-12-20

Herbalife Ltd. HLF

Formula 1 is a $2bn 'brand nobody's heard of' — sales economics defy any genuine consumer demand

N5 V4 C4
Pershing Square 2012-12-20

Herbalife Ltd. HLF

Herbalife is a pyramid scheme: distributors profit by recruiting, not retail sales

N5 V4 C4
Muddy Waters 2012-12-04

Olam International OLAM

Olam's surprise $750m Temasek-backed debt raise — at an effective cost over 10% — validates Muddy Waters' thesis that the company is days from collapse; Strong Sell maintained.

N3 V2 C1
Muddy Waters 2012-11-30

Olam International OLAM

Olam's 45-page rebuttal ducks Muddy Waters' real points; we'll pay S&P to rate Olam's debt and prove the market underprices its accounting and acquisition risk.

N4 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2012-11-27

Olam International Ltd. SGX:O32

Olam is an Enron-style agri trader whose aggressive non-cash accounting, off-the-rails CapEx binge, and 9.3x leverage mask a failing trading business — equity likely worthless, bonds 14-33¢.

N5 V2 C1
Sandell 2012-10-01

TPC Group Inc. TPCG

TPC Group's $40/share take-private by First Reserve/SK Capital is a self-dealt, low-balled sale; a proper auction plus MLP re-rating would deliver materially higher value to shareholders.

N4 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2012-07-18

New Oriental Education & Technology Group EDU

New Oriental is hiding an extensive franchising operation, filing fraudulent tax-exempt financials in Beijing and using a cosmetic VIE — expect a restatement and Deloitte to resign.

N5 V2 C2
Elliott Management 2012-05-31

BMC Software BMC

BMC has underperformed every peer and index over 1-, 2-, 3-year and YTD windows

N5 V4 C4
Starboard Value 2012-05-23

AOL, Inc. AOL

AOL's board lets management burn Access/Search cash on a Display strategy losing $500M+ a year; elect three Starboard nominees to enforce discipline and restructure or exit Patch.

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2012-05-16

J.C. Penney Company, Inc. JCP

Ron Johnson (Target, Apple Retail) can repeat his retail magic at chronically mismanaged JCP

N5 V4 C4
Muddy Waters 2012-02-09

Focus Media Holding FMCN

FMCN's 'independent' verification of its 185,174 LCD network counted 30,500 cardboard posters as LCDs, confirming Muddy Waters' fraud thesis and impugning all reported financials.

N5 V2 C2
Pershing Square 2012-02-06

Canadian Pacific Railway CP

CP has the worst operating ratio of any Class I railroad while closest peer CN has the best

N5 V4 C5
Muddy Waters 2012-01-06

Focus Media Holding FMCN

FMCN's bizarre acquisition of a tiny border-town ginseng plantation from its own employee is fresh evidence the 'Olympus of China' is using fake M&A to launder fake cash off its books.

N4 V1 C1
Muddy Waters 2011-12-09

Focus Media Holding FMCN

FMCN's promise to have 'reputable' Chinese firms verify its LCD network is worthless — CTR, the firm most likely to be hired, previously rubber-stamped CCME's fabricated bus network.

N4 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2011-11-29

Focus Media Holding FMCN

FMCN's rebuttal concedes Muddy Waters' core claims — inflated LCD network, 1,758% theater market share, phantom VIE acquisitions, and brazen insider self-dealing make the shares un-investable.

N4 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2011-11-21

Focus Media Holding Ltd. FMCN

Focus Media is the Olympus of China: it inflates its LCD screen count by 50%, systematically overpays for acquisitions it writes off, and enriches insiders at shareholders' expense.

N5 V2 C2
Greenlight Capital 2011-10-17

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters GMCR

GMCR's $9 EPS bull case ignores a smaller TAM, falling K-cup attachment rates, a September 2012 patent cliff, and accounting shenanigans at fulfillment agent MBlock — realistic EPS is ~$3.50.

N5 V2 C2
Third Point 2011-09-14

Yahoo! Inc. YHOO

Yahoo's Asian assets and cash alone cover its $14 price; with a new board and unlocked 40% Alibaba stake, intrinsic value is $20-32 per share — 40-122% upside.

N4 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2011-06-28

Spreadtrum Communications SPRD

Spreadtrum's 229.6% 2010 revenue jump cannot be reconciled with MediaTek's flat year, zero cash taxes were paid on $75M of profit, and CFO/auditor turnover points to material misstatement — Muddy Waters is short.

N4 V1 C1
Muddy Waters 2011-06-20

Sino-Forest Corporation TRE

Sino-Forest claims Huaihua Yuda is unrelated, but Muddy Waters shows Sonic Jita was once owned by TRE executives and still shares a key executive — undisclosed related-party transactions contradicting CEO Allen Chan's guarantees.

N4 V1 C1
Muddy Waters 2011-06-13

Sino-Forest Corporation TRE

TRE management's evasive Q1 call answers — unfinished E&Y review, undisclosed related parties, an unnecessary AI model, and dropped analyst questions — reinforce Muddy Waters' fraud thesis on Sino-Forest.

N3 V1 C1
Muddy Waters 2011-06-02

Sino-Forest Corporation TRE

Sino-Forest is a fraud: its Authorized Intermediary structure fabricates timber revenue, its Yunnan holdings are overstated by ~$900M, and equity is worth less than $1 vs. $18.21.

N5 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2011-04-04

Duoyuan Global Water Inc. DGW

DGW is a massive fraud overstating revenue by 100x; forged PRC audits, empty factory, and related-party tunneling to Chairman Guo imply the stock is worth under $1.

N5 V2 C2
Elliott Management 2011-03-09

Iron Mountain Incorporated IRM

IRM's core storage is a compelling REIT — conversion unlocks ~$10.58/share in tax savings plus cap rate re-rating

N4 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2011-03-02

China MediaExpress Holdings CCME

CCME is a fraud: a recorded salesperson admits doubling the bus count for SEC filings, and Chairman Cheng's rebuttal cited fabricated license plates — fair value $3.54 vs $12.27.

N4 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2010-11-10

RINO International Corp. RINO

RINO is a near-zero: 94% of its reported revenue is fabricated, customers deny buying its FGD systems, and founders are draining cash via the VIE; fair value $2.45 vs. $15.52.

N5 V2 C2
Greenlight Capital 2010-10-13

The St. Joe Company JOE

St. Joe's Florida real estate empire is a value trap: developments are ghost towns, the airport catalyst is a bust, and the land is worth $7-10/share, not $24.54.

N5 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2010-07-22

Orient Paper, Inc. ONP

AMEX-listed Orient Paper is a Chinese reverse-merger fraud: tax records, shell-company suppliers, and customer interviews show revenues and profits are fabricated by orders of magnitude.

N4 V1 C1
Muddy Waters 2010-07-06

Orient Paper, Inc. ONP

ONP claimed to own its China operating company HBOP for 16 months when it didn't, and replaced 80% of its top 10 customers while growing sales 56.5% — both flag fraud.

N4 V1 C1
Muddy Waters 2010-07-02

Orient Paper Inc. ONP

Muddy Waters stands by its ONP fraud thesis: the Baoding factory is incapable of producing reported output, and the 'rejected $300K research fee' vendetta narrative is fabricated.

N4 V1 C1
Muddy Waters 2010-07-01

Orient Paper, Inc. ONP

Muddy Waters reaffirms ONP is a fraud: SAIC-filed PRC financials, impossible equipment claims, and bogus acquisitions contradict ONP's SEC filings; Strong Sell.

N4 V1 C1
Muddy Waters 2010-06-28

Orient Paper Inc. ONP

Orient Paper is a fraud — revenues overstated 27x in 2008 and ~40x in 2009, assets inflated 10x, ~$30M of investor raises misappropriated; fair value under $1 vs. $8.43.

N5 V2 C2
Pershing Square 2010-05-26

NRSRO Rating Agencies (Moody's, S&P, Fitch)

Rating agencies caused trillions in losses by rubber-stamping structured finance and bond insurers

N4 V3 C2
Greenlight Capital 2009-10-19

US/Japan Sovereign Debt & Fiat Currencies (Macro)

Bernanke and Geithner's short-termism has institutionalized too-big-to-fail and will debase fiat currencies — hedge with gold and long-dated options on higher US and Japanese rates.

N5 V1 C1
Pershing Square 2009-10-06

Realty Income Corporation O

Tenant base is mostly junk-rated discretionary retailers with high bankruptcy risk

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2009-05-11

Target Corporation TGT

Target board lacks senior operating experience in retail, credit cards, and real estate

N4 V3 C3
Greenlight Capital 2008-05-21

Lehman Brothers LEH

Lehman is using fair-value accounting tricks to hide CDO losses and inflate Level 3 marks; the firm is over-levered, opaque, and needs to recapitalize before the Fed has to step in.

N5 V2 C1
Greenlight Capital 2008-05-21

Lehman Brothers LEH

Lehman quietly disclosed $6.5bn of previously hidden CDO exposure but took only a $200m write-down

N5 V2 C2
Carl Icahn 2006-02-01

Time Warner Inc. TWX

Time Warner has underperformed its peer index by 51% under Parsons; splitting into four SpinCos (AOL, Content, Publishing, Cable) plus a $20bn buyback unlocks $30-45bn — a 35-54% premium.

N5 V4 C4
Greenlight Capital 2002-06-17

Allied Capital ALD

Allied appears to flout SEC fair value rules by using SBA-style accounting to overstate NAV

N5 V2 C1
Engine Capital

Parkland Corporation PKI

Parkland's board is running a sham strategic review to entrench itself; Engine demands a shareholder-driven board reconstitution before the 2025 Annual Meeting to unlock real value.

N3 V1 C1
Engine Capital

Lyft LYFT

Lyft's entrenched, inexperienced board tolerates a dual-class structure, staggered seats and unoptimized balance sheet; replacing two directors unlocks governance reform and a $750mm ASR.

N3 V1 C1
Oasis Management

Kao Corporation 4452.JP

Kao, a 'sleeping giant' of premium FMCG brands hamstrung by a management allergic to growth, should refocus globally and rebuild the board, unlocking 76-97% upside.

N5 V4 C4