Callouts & quotes from 709+ activist slides

"2U is the highest valued “Cloud based SaaS” company. 2U is currently priced for perfection and we believe the stock will re-rate as downward estimate revisions come to fruition as well as the realization that the EBITDA margin profile will never mature similar to its SaaS peer group."

"Spruce Point believes current sell-side analyst price targets are wildly optimistic. The consensus estimate projects 74% upside to Generac’s share price. Almost 90% of its stock promoters have a “Buy” recommendation or equivalent. 11% are “Hold” and not a single analyst says “Sell”."

"We estimate Casino's LTM leverage ratio is 8.9x. Ideally, a company consolidating results of proportionally-owned companies has the debt spread out among the consolidated companies. That is not the case with Casino - there is a massive gap between what is owned, and what is owed."

"When compared to peers, Limbach has among the lowest NTM RPO as a percentage of estimated NTM revenue. This could imply a weaker forward revenue base, shorter project durations, or less visibility into future revenue, potentially signaling elevated revenue risk relative to peers."

"The ports business is a highly profitable business, recording margins significantly higher than the European freight business - we estimate BOL's ports business generates EBITDA margins of approximately 40%, vs. an estimate of approximately 5% for its freight forwarding business."

"WD-40’s valuation relative to its own selected peers set of specialty chemical and auto part distributors exposes its extreme valuation. Its valuation becomes even more expensive once it becomes evident that overly aggressive estimates for 2020-2021 will be difficult to achieve."

"We believe that if our nominees are elected they can help oversee the execution of this plan and the Company can realize $300 million in profit upside over consensus EBITDA estimates, leading to a clear path to achieving $4.00 or more in earnings per share in the coming years."

"Only with over 100 launches, well above our estimate of the entire addressable market in 2024/25, and generously holding price constant at $3.75m per launch and giving the company credit for lowering material costs to $1m, does Astra begin to break even on a per rocket basis."

"Oasis estimates freeplus revenue for 2023 was less than USD 150 million, however, the estimated global retail value of its product peers, Kenvue’s Neutrogena (USD 2.9 billion) and L’Oréal’s Garnier (USD 6.4 billion), demonstrate the potential growth opportunity for freeplus."

"Our EPS/EBITDA estimates for 2017/2018 are ~3%/-10% below Street consensus. We expect strong top-line growth from North American onshore activity levels (~30%-35% of current revenues), but this will be partially offset by headwinds from offshore activity (~40% of revenues)."

"In our opinion, MAXR’s 2018 Adj. EPS expectation of $4.75/sh is pure fiction. The Company has made numerous aggressive accounting choices that inflate its Non-IFRS results. Based on our forensic review, we estimate EBITDA and EPS are overstated by 17% and 79%, respectively"

"Per our estimates, and excluding external financings, it is increasingly likely Anthony Noto would lose substantially all of his $10+ million PSU performance bonus if not for the intellectually dishonest and misleading financial reporting we have outlined in this report."

"If Medtronic's claims regarding its current share and share trajectory are at all credible – and we have no reason to believe that they are not – then sell-side market share estimates for Penumbra, and sales growth estimates by extension, are off by a tremendous margin."

"With any potential inorganic growth offset by measured organic contraction, we estimate that top-line growth will be flat through FY 2020, and see normalized earnings 27% less than consensus due to our three key adjustments (POC, Software Development Costs and Taxes)."

"IQE sells to CSC at purportedly arms-length / market valuations (e.g., PP&E transferred at 4.6x estimated carrying value), but IQE buys from CSC at non arms-length / market prices - at cash cost, with no profit margin or reimbursement for depreciation and amortization"

"Aside from the overall amount of revenue and deferred revenue being implausible - we estimate $6.3MM of deferred revenue per Allonnia employee - the timing of when Ginkgo booked these amounts from Allonnia strains credibility and suggests they are clearly fictitious."

"Though Herbalife’s SG&A disclosure is limited, we estimate a meaningful portion of Distributor Facing expenses are dedicated to vacation packages, one-time cash bonuses, Herbalife pins and watches, and other similar promotions that can only be gained via recruiting"

"Lasertec is a relatively simple accounting fraud - one can easily estimate what its normalized inventory should be, and therefore the level by which both inventory and earnings are inflated and the size of the inevitable impairment charge and retained earnings hit."

"Lasertec is a relatively simple accounting fraud - one can easily estimate what its normalized inventory should be, and therefore the level by which both inventory and earnings are inflated and the size of the inevitable impairment charge and retained earnings hit."

"If Valeant’s durable portfolio were valued within the range of multiples of businesses that we believe to be comparable, and its patent cliff portfolio were valued using a DCF analysis, then we estimate that Valeant’s forward earnings multiple would be as follows:"

"By our best estimate, Waterpik has been another failed acquisition by CHD. In the three full quarters after it was acquired, and the acquisition contribution was disclosed through the consumer segments, we find total revenues declined from $102m, to $85m, to $79m."

"If Valeant’s durable portfolio were valued within the range of multiples of businesses that we believe to be comparable, and its patent cliff portfolio were valued using a DCF analysis, then we estimate that Valeant’s forward earnings multiple would be as follows:"

"FBHS currently trades ~9.7x LTM EBITDA and ~16.5x LTM cash earnings. If no recovery occurs, FBHS is trading at ~10x our estimate of cash earnings. If a recovery occurs, FBHS trades at ~4x to 7x our estimates of cash earnings, depending on the strength of recovery"

"Disney’s Board decided to spend an estimated $40 million of shareholder money engaging in a proxy contest, while 11 out of 12 Directors have not even met Nelson Peltz or Jay Rasulo in-person during Trian’s engagement with the Company in the past year and a half."

"It is concerning that Limbach removed working capital targets from its incentive compensation plan targets after 2020, particularly given the Company's use of cost-to-cost accounting, where revenue and profit recognition are heavily tied to management estimates."

"Disney’s Board decided to spend an estimated $40 million of shareholder money engaging in a proxy contest, while 11 out of 12 Directors have not even met Nelson Peltz or Jay Rasulo in-person during Trian’s engagement with the Company in the past year and a half"

"For factoring of AT&T receivables to have been responsible for the difference between the 5-day decline in AT&T DSOs and the 7-day increase in firm-wide DSOs - a difference of 12 DSOs - we estimate that Amdocs would have had to factor $36M of AT&T receivables."

"2.5% of equity capital would imply Claims Paying Resources of $286bn, over 10 times the cumulative losses in the GSEs' single-family guarantee business during the financial crisis, based on our estimates of actual credit losses excluding subprime and Alt-A MBS"

"We believe that, even on reasonable base-case assumptions for growth in new products and the legacy business, respectively, Hill-Rom should miss consensus core revenue estimates by 2% – a top-line miss the likes of which the Company has not seen since Q2 FY16."

"2.5% of equity capital would imply Claims Paying Resources of $286bn, over 10 times the cumulative losses in the GSEs' single-family guarantee business during the financial crisis, based on our estimates of actual credit losses excluding subprime and Alt-A MBS"

"TCM's and Cartoon Network's 2005E EBITDA margins are estimated to be towards the high end of the profitability of other cable networks. TNT's and CNN's estimated 2005E margins of approximately 39% and 35% respectively, fall in the mid-to low end of the range."

"We believe that WTRG subtly cut its organic growth estimate for water rate base growth between January and February 2023. The latest investor presentation uploaded February 27, 2023 now includes acquisitions to achieve the targets 6-7% rate base CAGR growth."

"2022 CTV revenue was $28.5m, and PERI has disclosed its two annual growth rates in 2022 (108%) and 2021 (205%). As a result, we can work backwards and estimate that 2020 CTV should be $4.5m. However, a presentation slide from 2020 shows CTV revenue as $9.9m."

"From a penny stock to a $5 billion market cap with no proven or probable reserves and now trading at 42x highly questionable 2026E revenue estimates, we believe investors should exercise extreme caution and believe there is 65%-85% potential downside risk."

"Analysts have proven to be overly optimistic about Maxar’s results, often taking management’s word at face value and extrapolating results. Estimates have been slowly coming down, but we believe they are still too optimistic with further room to contract."

"Based on a review of the transactions listed in Exhibit 4.49, the unique strategic franchises and the competitive position of Networks, private market valuation is estimated at 16x - 18x 2005PF OIBDA, implying an enterprise value of $47.6 - $53.6 billion."

"Limbach engages Crowe LLP as its auditor, a small firm with an estimated ~1% market share. Crowe faced SEC charges in the past over deficient audits on a company which was discovered to have $100 million in undiscovered liabilities after it went bankrupt."

"Miraculously, there are still sell-side analysts recommending to buy Zillow’s stock despite the Company eliminating its 2025 revenue target, lowering 2024 revenue guidance and consensus estimates for Adj. EBITDA being way below management’s 2025E target."

"Even with evidence that Microsoft revenue is falling below plan, Perion retracted Yandex as a search partner, made search its #1 risk factor, and experienced a sharp decline in revenue per day per search, sell-side consensus estimates are still rising."

"Spruce Point believes our assumptions are conservative given there is a good chance the state litigation ends up at SCOTUS, allowing Kalshi to operate at least through 2026. In our base case, we estimate DraftKings risks missing 2026 revenue by ~15.0%."

"In less than twelve months, durvalumab, demcizumab, ACY-241, and RPC-4046 had all been removed from the list. While fedratinib was added to the list, current Wall Street analysts' estimates expect fedratinib to generate peak revenues of <$500 million."

"However, with recent acquisitions poised to contribute $115-125M in cloud revenue by our estimates, we believe that this leaves targeted cloud revenue growth at a three-year CAGR of just 13-27% excluding outstanding sources of inorganic cloud revenue."

"Rather than make clear the original plan underestimated the amount of pre-stripping, AKG retroactively changed the original plan without making the change apparent to investors – it was as though the company hoped nobody would notice the difference."

"The enterprise value of TWC is estimated to be $43.3 - $48.5 billion (which incorporates the value of cable systems that are 100% owned by TWC and the value of TWC's unconsolidated assets) based on the implied multiples derived from this analysis."

"We estimate that within the five year period ending June 2022, in addition to the continuation of the current 50% dividend payout ratio, the Value Unlock Plan could result in: a total of c.US$33bn being returned to shareholders via share buybacks"

"Stop lowering the bar with targets such as negative free cash flow and a return on invested capital well below the Company’s estimated cost of capital – unconscionable targets that the Compensation Committee has approved the last two fiscal years"

"Any reasonable estimate of Verint's M&A sales contribution would suggest that the Company is experiencing dramatic organic top-line contraction – yet management almost never addresses organic growth on calls, nor is it asked about it by analysts."

"Stop lowering the bar with targets such as negative free cash flow and a return on invested capital well below the Company's estimated cost of capital - unconscionable targets that the Compensation Committee has approved the last two fiscal years"

"Parcel information corresponding to this location indicates that in 2017 at the time of the transaction, the total estimated market value is $309,000, which is much more in-line with the implied property value calculated using deed tax amounts."

"By factoring in the U.K. pension debt, we estimate Saputo's true Net Debt / EBITDA leverage to be 3.5x. Looked at another way, with over $4.5 billion in net debt, each manufacturing facility is indebted $68m and every employee by almost $240k."

"Spruce Point believes it is a huge red flag that Bunge failed to provide revenue projections for Viterra in its proxy statement which it likely had formulated if it were able to provide Adj. EBIT, EBITDA and Unlevered Free Cash Flow estimates."

"However, based on the past relationship between changes in accumulated depreciation and proceeds from asset disposals, dating to when Amdocs still disclosed proceeds from asset sales, we can estimate Amdocs' present proceeds from asset sales."

"Assuming that DuPont achieves 40 cents per share of cost-savings in 2015, Trian estimates that the core business must grow operating earnings by ~29% in Q2-Q4 2015 to meet its revised 2015 EPS guidance of $4.00 per share (low-end of range)"

"Assuming that DuPont achieves 40 cents per share of cost-savings in 2015, Trian estimates that the core business must grow operating earnings by ~29% in Q2-Q4 2015 to meet its revised 2015 EPS guidance of $4.00 per share (low-end of range)"

"Assuming that DuPont achieves 40 cents per share of cost-savings in 2015, Trian estimates that the core business must grow operating earnings by ~29% in Q2-Q4 2015 to meet its revised 2015 EPS guidance of $4.00 per share (low-end of range)"

"If SGHC is improperly consolidating 100% of Raging River’s financial results rather than 89.29%, we estimate it may be overstating 2025E EBITDA by approximately $30.7 million which represents the 10.71% non-controlling (minority) interest."

"All in all, this suggests that if METC were to mine $37 billion worth of REEs from their Brook Mine, we estimate they would lose ~$88 billion in the process, which would forever cement METC as the most capital destructive mine in history."

"Given our concerns about the reliability of Aerojet’s Adjusted EBITDAP, we believe the most conservative way to value the Company is on its revenues, which we can estimate with insights from the defense budget and current rocket programs."

"We believe LongHorn needs to reduce the prep items that customers are not giving them credit for, and focus their labor efforts on what customers actually care about. Estimated total savings from reducing prep costs is $6.5 – $12 million"

"Abbott's FreeStyle Libre gained FDA Approval on September 27, 2017 and was launched commercially in 2018. We estimate that the Libre now has 38% market share and has already passed Dexcom after just one full year of commercial operation."