Contrarian Corpus

358 documents showing 181–240

Muddy Waters 2019-08-07

Burford Capital Ltd. BUR LN

Burford is a poor litigation-finance business masquerading as a great one through Enron-like fair value accounting, four-case concentration, and a CEO-wife CFO — and is arguably insolvent.

N5 V2 C2
Starboard Value 2019-06-20

AECOM ACM

AECOM is a collection of under-integrated franchises; a Jacobs-style operational overhaul plus outright sales of MS and CS can close a 5.3x multiple discount to peers.

N4 V3 C3
Third Point 2019-06-13

Sony Corporation 6758.T

Sony trades at a ~50% conglomerate discount; spinning Semiconductors into 'Sony Technologies', divesting listed stakes, and refocusing on entertainment unlocks ~2x SOTP upside.

N5 V4 C4
Oasis Management 2019-06-06

N/A (Japanese M&A regulatory guidelines; Alps Alpine cited as precedent)

Dealreporter coverage of Japan's new METI M&A guidelines that strengthen special committees and independent directors in MBOs, with Oasis Management endorsing the reforms as minority-shareholder protection.

N2 V1 C1
Starboard Value 2019-03-18

Bristol-Myers Squibb BMY

BMY is overpaying ~$30B for Celgene's risky pipeline, betting on 10 blockbusters in 8 years vs 3 in 15; shareholders should vote against and unlock 900bps of standalone margin upside.

N5 V3 C3
Starboard Value 2019-03-01

Bristol-Myers Squibb BMY

BMY's $91B Celgene deal bets the company on a REVLIMID patent cliff and pipeline requiring 10 blockbusters in 8 years — shareholders should vote no and pursue a standalone Amgen-style transformation.

N5 V3 C3
Elliott Management 2019-03-01

Telecom Italia TIT.MI

Vivendi's control of TIM destroyed 54% of shareholder value

N5 V5 C5
Starboard Value 2019-02-28

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY

Starboard urges BMY shareholders to reject the $91B Celgene acquisition — it imports a massive REVLIMID patent cliff and was rushed through without exploring standalone turnaround or a sale of Bristol-Myers.

N4 V3 C3
Starboard Value 2019-02-22

Magellan Health, Inc. MGLN

Magellan destroyed $700M of value through failed acquisitions and three 2018 guidance cuts; Starboard's six-director slate will overhaul the board and run a parallel sale process at peer multiples.

N4 V2 C2
Citron Research 2019-02-15

Inogen INGN

Inogen's growth is built on a reseller network that lies to elderly customers about Medicare coverage to force cash sales — competition and oversight will collapse margins to a $46 stock.

N4 V2 C2
Pershing Square 2019-02-13

Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. (annual portfolio update; covers CMG, ADP, QSR, LOW, SBUX, HLT, UTX, HHC, FNMA/FMCC) PSH

PSH trades at 27% discount to NAV despite 13.8% net CAGR since 2004 vs 8.4% for S&P 500

N3 V3 C2
Starboard Value 2019-01-07

Dollar Tree, Inc. DLTR

Dollar Tree is deeply undervalued because Family Dollar is a failed acquisition and the $1 price ceiling is a self-imposed cap; selling Family Dollar and testing multi-price points unlocks $150/share.

N4 V2 C2
Starboard Value 2018-12-10

Cars.com Inc. CARS

Starboard, a ~10% holder, warns Cars.com's board that serial guide-downs must end with credible 2019-2021 targets, a third independent director, and — absent improvement — management change or a sale.

N4 V2 C2
Carl Icahn 2018-11-15

Dell Technologies (Class V / DVMT tracking stock) DVMT

Dell's $109 buyout of the DVMT tracker is really $90 — a 42% discount engineered to transfer $11bn from public holders to Michael Dell and Silver Lake. Vote no.

N4 V3 C3
Citron Research 2018-10-23

Tesla, Inc. TSLA

After five years short, Citron reverses on Tesla: Model 3 is dominating luxury and EV segments, Munro confirms 30% margins, and worst-case math yields $599/share.

N4 V2 C2
Trian Partners 2018-10-11

PPG Industries, Inc. PPG

PPG has underperformed peers by 3,500 bps under CEO McGarry; Trian wants Chuck Bunch reinstalled, the balance sheet levered, and the portfolio split into Architectural and Industrial to unlock ~40% upside.

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2018-10-09

Starbucks SBUX

Dominant global coffee brand trading at 22x forward P/E vs. 26x historical average

N4 V3 C3
Third Point 2018-10-01

Campbell Soup Company CPB

Campbell's incumbent board delivered 19% TSR vs 306% S&P over 20 years; replace the entire board with Third Point's Independent Slate to unlock $52-58/share via turnaround, breakup, or sale.

N5 V4 C4
Citron Research 2018-08-28

Wayfair W

Wayfair's unit economics are deteriorating — loss per new customer nearly doubled to $19 — while the stock defies gravity; Citron is re-shorting with a first stop at $100.

N3 V2 C2
Citron Research 2018-08-21

NVIDIA Corporation NVDA

NVDA, up 600% since 2016, faces in-house silicon from every mega-customer, collapsing crypto and autonomous narratives, and a benchmark-less Turing launch — shares revert to $200.

N4 V2 C2
Third Point 2018-07-01

Nestlé S.A. NESN

Nestlé has been too slow to adapt to a changing consumer industry; adopting a #NestléNOW mindset — sharper strategy, bolder portfolio divestitures including the L'Oréal stake, and a three-division split — can double EPS by 2022.

N5 V4 C4
Muddy Waters 2018-06-13

TAL Education Group TAL

TAL is a real business with fake financials: two asset-parking transactions inflated FY2016-FY2018 pre-tax profits by $153M (28.4%) while Deloitte China was starved of audit hours.

N5 V2 C2
Citron Research 2018-05-31

Snap Inc. SNAP

SNAP trades at largest-ever discount to FB/TWTR despite fastest revenue growth

N4 V3 C2
Carl Icahn 2018-05-24

SandRidge Energy SD

SandRidge trades at a ~45% discount to its own PV-10 because the post-bankruptcy 'bankruptcy board' destroys value via dilutive deals; replace it with Icahn's slate to run a real sale process.

N4 V3 C3
Land & Buildings 2018-05-10

Taubman Centers, Inc. TCO

Taubman's persistent peer underperformance stems from a family-entrenched board and dual-class structure; electing Litt and collapsing Series B shares unlocks value common shareholders have been denied.

N4 V3 C3
Elliott Management 2018-04-24

Telecom Italia (TIM) TIT.MI

Vivendi holds only 18% economic stake yet controls TIM to its own benefit

N4 V4 C4
Greenlight Capital 2018-04-23

Assured Guaranty AGO

Assured Guaranty is a melting-ice-cube bond insurer aggressively returning capital it hasn't earned; Puerto Rico losses alone (2-4x reserves) will force a capital raise or strip the AA rating it needs to write new business.

N5 V2 C2
Elliott Management 2018-04-23

Hyundai Motor Group (Hyundai Mobis, Hyundai Motor Company, Kia Motors) 012330.KS / 005380.KS / 000270.KS

Mobis, HMC and Kia trade at 57%, 26% and 73% EV/EBITDA discounts to global peers — peers re-rate if structure is fixed

N5 V4 C4
Carl Icahn 2018-04-17

Xerox Corporation XRX

Xerox's CEO is handing 50.1% control to Fuji 'without spending a penny' for ~$28/share; vote down the deal and replace the board to unlock $54-$64 standalone.

N5 V3 C3
Elliott Management 2018-04-05

Telecom Italia SpA (TIM) TIT.MI

Vivendi controls TIM with just 24% voting stake, running it as a subsidiary while minorities suffer

N5 V4 C4
Carl Icahn 2018-04-02

Commvault Systems, Inc. CVLT

Commvault is a product-great but company-broken data management software leader; Elliott (10.3%) demands an operational review, four new directors, and a capital-return program to close a deep valuation discount.

N4 V2 C2
Elliott Management 2018-04-02

Commvault Systems, Inc. CVLT

Commvault, a product-respected software leader, trades at half the peer multiple because of 1,200bps of margin collapse and 20-year stale governance; a board refresh, operational review and capital return will close the gap.

N4 V2 C3
Starboard Value 2018-03-05

Newell Brands Inc. NWL

Newell's Board is dysfunctional — four directors have quit and margins have cratered to 9.1%; elect Starboard's slate at the 2018 Annual Meeting to drive an operational turnaround.

N3 V2 C1
Starboard Value 2018-02-13

Monotype Imaging Holdings Inc. TYPE

Monotype's three-year acquisition spree (Olapic, Swyft) destroyed $500M+ of value and halved EBITDA margins; Starboard demands four new directors to refocus on the core font franchise.

N4 V3 C3
Starboard Value 2018-02-12

Newell Brands Inc. NWL

Starboard, backed by Jarden's founders, seeks to replace Newell's board after CEO Michael Polk destroyed $11bn of value following the 2016 Jarden merger.

N4 V2 C2
Pershing Square 2018-01-29

Pershing Square Holdings (PSH) — portfolio review PSH

Returning to roots: smaller investment-centric team, reaffirmed core principles, growth from returns not AUM

N3 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2018-01-29

Pershing Square Holdings (fund-level annual review covering multiple portfolio companies: ADP, QSR, MDLZ, HHC, CMG, FNMA/FMCC, PAH, NKE, HLF, SPGI) PSH

Pershing Square has restructured to a smaller, investment-centric organization — 'returning to our roots'

N3 V3 C2
Spruce Point Capital 2018-01-25

Ballard Power Systems BLDP

Ballard's 167% 2017 rally rests on a fragile China fuel-cell story with weak partners and zero insider skin; expect a repeat of the Azure failure and 35-70% downside to $1.15-$2.50.

N4 V3 C3
Starboard Value 2018-01-08

Mellanox Technologies, Ltd. MLNX

Mellanox has industry-leading 70%+ gross margins but dead-last operating margins among fabless semis; disciplined cost cuts can close a multi-year peer gap and rerate the stock.

N4 V3 C3
Marcato 2017-11-01

Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK

Deckers' board missed every margin target and wasted $600m on retail bloat and Sanuk; replacing them enables UGG focus, non-core divestitures and a doubling to $135-158.

N4 V3 C3
Trian Partners 2017-09-21

The Procter & Gamble Company PG

P&G's rebuttal deck is riddled with 50+ data errors designed to discredit Peltz; the real issue is ongoing market-share losses and bottom-quartile TSR that only a board seat can fix.

N4 V3 C2
Trian Partners 2017-09-06

The Procter & Gamble Company PG

P&G's insular board and suffocating matrix have driven a decade of share loss; adding Nelson Peltz as one of 11 directors — Heinz/Mondelez/Wendy's tested — would revitalize the $65bn giant.

N4 V3 C3
Trian Partners 2017-09-06

The Procter & Gamble Company PG

P&G's long-tenured Board has rewarded a decade of market-share loss and bottom-quartile EPS growth; electing Nelson Peltz adds the shareholder voice needed to fix innovation, productivity, M&A and governance.

N5 V4 C4
Pershing Square 2017-08-17

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. ADP

Employer Services margins are 1,500-2,000 bps below potential vs. Paychex and peers

N5 V4 C4
Third Point 2017-06-25

Nestlé NESN

Nestlé's world-class brand portfolio masks decade-long underperformance; new CEO Schneider must adopt margin and leverage targets, reshape the portfolio, and monetize L'Oréal to drive EPS to CHF 5-6 by 2020.

N4 V2 C2
Citron Research 2017-06-01

BlackBerry BBRY

QNX is entrenched in 60M cars across 40+ automakers — a leading autonomous-driving OS

N4 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2017-05-31

Asanko Gold Inc. AKG

Muddy Waters is short AKG: flawed geology, a collapsing Nkran pit, and a 2018 liquidity crunch make the Ghana gold miner highly likely to end up a zero.

N4 V2 C2
Elliott Management 2017-05-16

BHP Billiton BHP

US$46bn value unlock: demerger (+$15bn) + capital return (+$20bn) + franking credits (+$11bn)

N5 V4 C4
Pershing Square 2017-05-08

Howard Hughes Corporation HHC

HHC owns the best public-market analogue to Donald Bren's $15B Irvine Ranch MPC empire

N5 V4 C4
Pershing Square 2017-04-24

Pershing Square Portfolio (multiple positions)

Core longs (QSR, MDLZ, CMG, APD, HHC) are high-quality businesses in mid-transformation with untapped margin upside

N2 V3 C2
Marcato 2017-04-20

Buffalo Wild Wings BWLD

Sally Smith-led BWLD has underperformed peers, mismanaged margins, and wasted capital buying back franchise stores; replacing the board and refranchising to 90% unlocks a higher multiple.

N5 V4 C4
Elliott Management 2017-04-11

Arconic Inc. ARNC

Arconic shareholders lost ~70% of their value; CEO Kleinfeld is one of the worst-performing tenured CEOs in the U.S.

N5 V5 C5
Elliott Management 2017-04-10

BHP Billiton BHP

DLC structure traps US$9.7bn of franking credits and a 12.7% Plc/Ltd discount

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2017-01-26

Portfolio-wide update (Mondelez, Air Products, Restaurant Brands, Chipotle, Howard Hughes, Fannie/Freddie, Valeant, Herbalife short, Platform Specialty, Nomad, CP, Zoetis)

Mondelez EBIT margin of 15.4% sits ~1,200bps below Kraft Heinz's 27.6% — a fixable gap

N3 V3 C2
Pershing Square 2017-01-26

Multiple (PSH portfolio update)

Long-term track record intact: 503% cumulative vs S&P 163% since 2004 inception

N3 V3 C3
Ancora 2017-01-24

Edgewater Technology, Inc. EDGW

Edgewater's entrenched legacy board has overpaid two underperforming executives for 14 years; replacing four directors with Ancora's slate unlocks a turnaround in this sub-scale IT consultant.

N4 V3 C2
Spruce Point Capital 2017-01-12

MGP Ingredients, Inc. MGPI

MGPI's whiskey-premiumization rerating is an illusion: Diageo is going in-house, inventory is stranded, and insiders are selling — shares should collapse 60-70% to $16-$21.

N4 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2016-12-13

Nidec Corp. 6594 JP

Nidec is a gigantic stock promotion: zero organic growth and aggressive accounting hide behind a Facebook-like multiple — fair value JPY 4,764, ~52% downside.

N5 V2 C2
Greenlight Capital 2016-11-28

Bayer AG BAYN

Bayer at €88/11x trades in no-man's land between Monsanto deal-sceptics and deal-believers; whether the merger closes or breaks, Bayer shareholders get cake.

N5 V3 C3
Elliott Management 2016-11-28

Cognizant Technology Solutions CTSH

Cognizant has deliberately capped margins at 19-20% for 20 years while revenue grew 70x

N4 V3 C3