Contrarian Corpus

61 documents showing 1–60

Pershing Square 2025-01-16

Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac (GSEs) FNMA / FMCC

Releasing GSEs from conservatorship could generate ~$300bn for taxpayers via Treasury warrants

N5 V4 C3
Trian Partners 2024-03-29

The Walt Disney Company DIS

Disney has underperformed its peers across every recent time period under the incumbent board; elect Trian's Peltz and Rasulo to restore focus, accountability, and shareholder alignment.

N3 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2023-03-28

Vivion Investments

Muddy Waters stays short Vivion bonds: the December 2022 rebuttal is misleading, asset values are inflated, rent24 exposure is hidden, and shareholder loans are being cashed out with bondholder money.

N3 V2 C2
Starboard Value 2022-03-08

Huntsman Corporation HUN

Huntsman failed all 2016 and 2018 Investor Day EBITDA and share-price promises

N4 V4 C3
Muddy Waters 2019-08-27

Burford Capital BUR

Burford's rebuttal on Napo is a dodge: a 2013 Glenmark arbitration MW surfaces proves Napo was a failed investment BUR disguised as a winner.

N3 V2 C1
Muddy Waters 2019-08-13

Burford Capital BUR

Burford's rebuttal confirms it: aggressive mark-to-model fair-value gains, manipulated ROIC/IRR, and a CEO-CFO marriage make BUR an Enron-style stock promotion the FCA should investigate.

N4 V2 C1
Third Point 2019-06-13

Sony Corporation 6758.T

Sony trades at a ~50% conglomerate discount; spinning Semiconductors into 'Sony Technologies', divesting listed stakes, and refocusing on entertainment unlocks ~2x SOTP upside.

N5 V4 C4
Starboard Value 2019-02-22

Magellan Health, Inc. MGLN

Magellan destroyed $700M of value through failed acquisitions and three 2018 guidance cuts; Starboard's six-director slate will overhaul the board and run a parallel sale process at peer multiples.

N4 V2 C2
Citron Research 2018-10-23

Tesla, Inc. TSLA

After five years short, Citron reverses on Tesla: Model 3 is dominating luxury and EV segments, Munro confirms 30% margins, and worst-case math yields $599/share.

N4 V2 C2
Carl Icahn 2018-04-02

Commvault Systems, Inc. CVLT

Commvault is a product-great but company-broken data management software leader; Elliott (10.3%) demands an operational review, four new directors, and a capital-return program to close a deep valuation discount.

N4 V2 C2
Elliott Management 2018-04-02

Commvault Systems, Inc. CVLT

Commvault, a product-respected software leader, trades at half the peer multiple because of 1,200bps of margin collapse and 20-year stale governance; a board refresh, operational review and capital return will close the gap.

N4 V2 C3
Muddy Waters 2018-01-31

OSI Systems OSIS

OSIS's rebuttal fails: S2 Albania's financials prove ICMS contributed no capital, making its 49% concession stake an unjustified conduit for corruption and confirming management's lost credibility.

N4 V1 C1
Spruce Point Capital 2018-01-25

Ballard Power Systems BLDP

Ballard's 167% 2017 rally rests on a fragile China fuel-cell story with weak partners and zero insider skin; expect a repeat of the Azure failure and 35-70% downside to $1.15-$2.50.

N4 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2017-12-06

OSI Systems, Inc. OSIS

OSIS is rotten to the core: the Albania concession was obtained via an apparent bribe, the Mexico turnkey is egregiously priced and up for renewal, and FCPA liability could erase a large chunk of the $1.6bn market cap.

N5 V2 C2
Pershing Square 2017-01-26

Multiple (PSH portfolio update)

Long-term track record intact: 503% cumulative vs S&P 163% since 2004 inception

N3 V3 C3
Marcato 2016-04-06

Epiq Systems, Inc. EPIQ

Epiq's board has insulated management through chronic guidance misses, a failed Iris acquisition and governance entrenchment; electing Villere's alternate slate is the unique opportunity to unlock value.

N4 V3 C3
Engaged Capital 2016-02-18

Outerwall Inc. OUTR

Outerwall's cash-rich Redbox/Coinstar business trades at a 3x EBITDA capital-allocation discount; halting buybacks for a large dividend and running a sale process unlocks 150%+ upside.

N4 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2016-01-13

Groupe Casino CO

Casino is a highly-levered, deteriorating French retailer being hollowed out by controlling shareholder Naouri and using property-sale gains to inflate EBITDA; equity worth ~€7 per share.

N4 V2 C1
Muddy Waters 2015-10-15

TeliaSonera AB TLSN

Short TeliaSonera: disclosed Uzbekistan bribery is only the tip — ~SEK 17bn of suspect Eurasia/Nepal payments plus a multi-billion DOJ FCPA settlement threaten the dividend and cut stub fair value to SEK 27-29.

N4 V2 C1
Trian Partners 2015-04-21

E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (DuPont) DD

DuPont is a chronically underperforming conglomerate bloated with $2-4bn of excess costs; putting Trian on the board unlocks a $120+/share, 21% IRR path by 2017.

N5 V3 C3
Greenlight Capital 2015-04-07

AerCap Holdings AER

AerCap, the largest independent aircraft lessor, trades at 8.5x earnings; the equity should rerate as the credit markets already have post-ILFC deal, supported by low-teens ROE and ~10% EPS CAGR.

N4 V3 C3
Trian Partners 2015-04-01

H.J. Heinz Company HNZ

Retrospective of Trian's 2006 Heinz campaign: a 13D white paper and proxy-won board seats drove brand reinvestment and cost discipline, delivering 178% TSR versus 40% for the S&P 500.

N3 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2014-11-20

Superb Summit International Group Limited 1228.HK

Superb Summit's HK$773m of reported revenue belongs to a coal company it never owned, and its HK$1.5bn JFT acquisition is a sham valuation routed through a mystery intermediary.

N4 V2 C2
Sandell 2014-11-01

TransCanada Corp TRP

TransCanada is an undervalued conglomerate; spinning off Energy and doing an all-in dropdown into TCP — Spectra-style — re-rates the parts to roughly $75/share.

N4 V4 C4
Marcato 2014-11-01

Dillard's, Inc. DDS

Dillard's trades at 6.2x EBITDA despite owning ~50mm sq. ft. of real estate; separating into OpCo/PropCo as peers have done implies ~$193/share vs. $109.

N3 V3 C3
Starboard Value 2014-09-11

Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI

Darden's brands and real estate are worth $67-$86/share vs. $48 today — replace the entire board to execute the Brinker playbook: operational turnaround, real-estate separation, SRG spin-off.

N5 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2014-07-06

NQ Mobile NQ

NQ's July 3 disclosures vindicate the fraud thesis: the audit chair resigned, PwC will never sign off, and insiders front-ran the news by dumping stock.

N4 V2 C2
Spruce Point Capital 2014-05-20

iRobot Corp IRBT

IRBT is a narrow consumer-vacuum company riding a robotics bubble; aggressive accounting, insider selling and a decaying moat point to $20-$25, or 25-40% downside.

N4 V3 C3
Marcato 2014-04-22

Sotheby's BID

Sotheby's sits on $1bn+ of excess capital while insiders own 0.8%; Third Point's slate brings aligned ownership to drive capital return, cost discipline, and higher ROE.

N4 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2014-04-13

NQ Mobile NQ

NQ Mobile's surprise Q4 loss and negative cash flow under PwC's tougher audit confirm Muddy Waters' fraud thesis: revenue, acquisitions, and cash balances are all fabricated.

N4 V2 C1
Starboard Value 2014-03-31

Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI

Darden is rushing a value-destructive Red Lobster spin-off; a Special Meeting can halt it and unlock $1-2B of real estate and operational upside instead.

N4 V3 C3
Starboard Value 2014-03-31

Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI

Darden's rushed Red Lobster spin is the wrong deal at the wrong time — it traps ~$850M of real estate value and blocks a $1-2B REIT unlock; shareholders must call a Special Meeting to stop it.

N5 V3 C3
Oasis Management 2014-02-26

Nintendo Co., Ltd. 7974.T

Nintendo should port Mario, Zelda and Donkey Kong to iOS/Android and buy a free-to-play studio — the casual gamer has moved to mobile, where $100bn of attention value awaits.

N3 V1 C1
Trian Partners 2014-02-19

PepsiCo, Inc. PEP

PepsiCo has chronically underperformed because its 'Power of One' holding-company structure suffocates Frito-Lay and Pepsi; separate them into two focused companies and the combined value will re-rate materially higher.

N5 V3 C2
Muddy Waters 2013-11-12

NQ Mobile NQ

NQ Mobile's credible-looking US management is a veneer hiding a $1.1bn fraud — Mathison conceals JCAP ties, Co-CEO Khan knows nothing, and pre-IPO partners include a convicted racketeer.

N4 V1 C1
Muddy Waters 2013-11-06

NQ Mobile NQ

NQ Mobile's largest purported revenue source, Yidatong, is a controlled shell whose offices, tax filings, and carrier records all contradict NQ's story — we maintain a <$1 target.

N4 V2 C1
Muddy Waters 2013-11-01

NQ Mobile (NetQin) NQ

Muddy Waters maintains its sub-$1 price target on NQ Mobile after Chinese media reporting confirms that ZTE, Huawei, Lenovo and Coolpad never had the pre-installation partnerships NQ claims.

N3 V1 C1
Muddy Waters 2013-10-29

NQ Mobile NQ

NQ Mobile's Oct 25 rebuttal of Muddy Waters' fraud report contained ten provable lies — Yidatong is NQ, revenue and market share are fabricated; reiterating price target under $1.

N4 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2013-10-24

NQ Mobile Inc. NQ

NQ Mobile is a 'China Fraud 2.0': 72%+ of China revenue is fictitious, real market share is 1.4% not 55%, and the $127.9M cash balance is likely forged — target price under $1.

N4 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2013-09-02

Olam International OLAM

Ten months after our initial short, Olam's FY13 results confirm the thesis: 1.8% ROA, S$800m cash burn, ossified board, no acknowledgement of the over-leverage problem.

N3 V1 C1
Muddy Waters 2013-08-12

American Tower Corporation AMT

AMT's $811M purchase of 4,456 NIHD towers at 21x EBITDA is a de facto loan to a near-bankrupt counterparty, masking weak growth and compounding accounting red flags from the prior Site Sharing deal.

N4 V1 C1
Muddy Waters 2013-08-01

American Tower AMT

AMT's international growth is a de facto lending / FX carry trade masking deteriorating economics, and ~$250M appears to have vanished from its Site Sharing acquisition.

N4 V1 C1
Glenview 2013-08-01

Health Management Associates HMA

HMA's incumbent board destroyed 25% of independent value before rushing a sale to Community Health Systems; Glenview's Fresh Alternative board protects the deal and recovers upside.

N4 V2 C2
Glenview 2013-07-01

Health Management Associates HMA

HMA's insular 17-year-tenure board drove a Lost Decade of <1% TSR; replace all directors with Glenview's blue-chip slate to fix governance, compensation, and capital allocation.

N5 V3 C3
Oasis Management 2013-06-06

Nintendo Co., Ltd. 7974.T

Nintendo trades at 0.9x book with 67% of market cap in net cash; publishing Mario and Pokémon on iOS/Android unlocks freemium upside of 97-240%.

N5 V3 C3
Sandell 2013-06-01

Spectra Energy Corp SE

Spectra Energy's conglomerate structure masks a premier energy infrastructure franchise; a three-step breakup — drop-down to SEP, WE IPO, DCP separation — unlocks $41-$48/share (32-55% upside).

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2013-05-08

Procter & Gamble PG

P&G earns $4 EPS today but should earn $6 by FY2016 at 24% EBIT margin

N4 V3 C2
Starboard Value 2013-04-30

Tessera Technologies Inc. TSRA

Tessera has squandered $517M on the failing Digital Optics business while its core patent-licensing franchise shrinks; Starboard's six-director slate and IP-focused plan can unlock best-in-class 60-70% EBITDA margins.

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2013-04-09

Herbalife Ltd. HLF

Herbalife distributors earn 10x more from recruitment than from retail product sales

N5 V2 C1
Elliott Management 2013-03-01

Hess Corporation HES

Hess intrinsic value is $96-$128/share vs. discounted current price - ~$50bn TEV trapped in opaque conglomerate

N5 V4 C4
Greenlight Capital 2013-02-21

Apple Inc. AAPL

Apple's $137B idle cash depresses its P/E; distribute 'iPrefs' — tax-free perpetual preferred stock paying 4% — to unlock ~$150/share without spending a dollar of cash.

N5 V3 C3
JANA Partners 2013-02-19

Agrium AGU

Agrium rebuts JANA's break-up case: the sum-of-parts math is contrived, Retail already trades at ~9x within Agrium, and no analyst endorses JANA's methodology.

N4 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2013-02-08

Olam International Ltd. OLAM

Olam's Q2 2013 results confirm Muddy Waters' Strong Sell thesis: debt is spiraling (9.5x EBITDA), cash is burning, and management's acquisitions and Gabon project reveal haphazard planning.

N3 V1 C1
Elliott Management 2013-01-29

Hess Corporation HES

Hess intrinsic value is over $126/share — 94-153% upside to the current price

N5 V4 C4
TPG-Axon 2013-01-18

SandRidge Energy SD

CEO Tom Ward's family entities systematically flipped Mississippian Lime mineral rights to SandRidge and competed for adjacent acreage—evidence of self-dealing that warrants a board investigation and potential termination.

N4 V3 C4
Elliott Management 2012-05-31

BMC Software BMC

BMC has underperformed every peer and index over 1-, 2-, 3-year and YTD windows

N5 V4 C4
Pershing Square 2012-05-16

J.C. Penney Company, Inc. JCP

Ron Johnson (Target, Apple Retail) can repeat his retail magic at chronically mismanaged JCP

N5 V4 C4
Muddy Waters 2011-11-29

Focus Media Holding FMCN

FMCN's rebuttal concedes Muddy Waters' core claims — inflated LCD network, 1,758% theater market share, phantom VIE acquisitions, and brazen insider self-dealing make the shares un-investable.

N4 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2011-11-21

Focus Media Holding Ltd. FMCN

Focus Media is the Olympus of China: it inflates its LCD screen count by 50%, systematically overpays for acquisitions it writes off, and enriches insiders at shareholders' expense.

N5 V2 C2
JANA Partners 2011-08-22

The McGraw-Hill Companies MHP

McGraw-Hill's conglomerate structure masks four independently attractive assets; separating MH Education, Information & Media and the S&P Index business plus an accelerated buyback unlocks ~60% upside to ~$65.

N4 V3 C2