Contrarian Corpus

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Kerrisdale Capital 2025-01-29

ACM Research, Inc. ACMR

ACMR trades at 1.1x revenue while its 82%-owned Shanghai subsidiary ACMS trades at 6x — a sum-of-parts gap that implies a 10-bagger as China's WFE self-sufficiency drive accelerates.

N4 V2 C2
Pershing Square 2025-01-16

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac FNMA / FMCC

Treasury's warrants and residual stake could generate ~$300bn for taxpayers over time

N5 V4 C4
Engine Capital 2024-12-01

Dye & Durham Limited DND

Dye & Durham's Board and CEO Matt Proud destroyed value chasing a $1bn EBITDA target through reckless M&A; Engine's six-director slate and new CEO can triple the share price to $46 in three years.

N5 V4 C4
Kerrisdale Capital 2024-11-01

Oklo Inc. OKLO

Oklo is a $3bn pre-revenue SPAC nuclear story whose 5x-lowballed fuel costs, unrealistic 2027 NRC timeline, and inexperienced 'Nuclear Bros' management mean shares should collapse as reality intrudes.

N4 V3 C2
Kerrisdale Capital 2024-08-15

Lumen Technologies LUMN

Lumen's 400% AI-fueled rally is an optical illusion: $5bn in PCF deals is construction-contractor funding worth ~$1/share, masking an insolvent, secularly declining telco with $19bn debt.

N4 V3 C2
Oasis Management 2024-04-25

Kao Corporation 4452.JP

Kao has top-decile brands (Curel, Biore, Molton Brown) but bottom-decile management with a 'growth allergy' — fixing it Beiersdorf-style unlocks 76-97% upside.

N4 V4 C4
Kerrisdale Capital 2024-02-26

Carvana Co. CVNA

Carvana at $70 is priced as a tech disruptor, but it's 'just a dealership' with CarMax-like unit economics and a levered balance sheet — fair value is $16, -77%.

N4 V3 C3
Palliser Capital 2023-12-06

Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 KS

Samsung C&T trades at a 63% discount to its $40.4bn NAV; fixing capital allocation, governance and the opaque group structure closes a $25bn value gap worth ~170% upside.

N5 V4 C4
Muddy Waters 2023-10-25

Sunrun Inc. RUN

Sunrun's non-GAAP Subscriber count exceeds mandatory EIA filings by ~20%, implying phantom customers, ~$1.5B of overstated Net Earning Assets (62.5% of market cap), and possible ITC tax fraud.

N4 V2 C2
Starboard Value 2022-10-19

Multiple (Wix, Salesforce, Splunk, Vertiv) WIX / CRM / SPLK / VRT

Four high-quality TMT names (Wix, Salesforce, Splunk, Vertiv) trade at multi-year-low valuations; closing the margin gap to peers as the market shifts from growth to profitability unlocks substantial FCF/share upside.

N4 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2022-07-28

Sunrun Inc. RUN

Sunrun's equity story rests on three shaky pillars — inflated subscriber values, abusive IRS tax-basis gaming, and fragile ABS — that together imply an 85% haircut to Net Earning Assets.

N4 V2 C2
Greenlight Capital 2021-05-12

Teck Resources TECK

Teck is the overlooked pick-axes play on the EV/green-electrification copper boom — QB2 doubles its copper mix and at forward-curve copper the stock is worth ~C$59, nearly double.

N4 V2 C2
Land & Buildings 2021-05-01

Hilton Grand Vacations HGV

HGV is overpaying 10x EBITDA for Diamond and handing Apollo effective control with no premium; standalone HGV is worth $55 — shareholders should vote AGAINST.

N4 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2020-06-02

eHealth, Inc. EHTH

EHTH books Medicare Advantage revenue today that takes nine to twenty years to collect, masking a cash-incinerating, high-churn business reminiscent of Enron-style accounting.

N4 V2 C2
Elliott Management 2020-05-12

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ALXN

Alexion's stand-alone strategy has failed — serial M&A missteps and a deep valuation discount mean the Board must pursue a sale now to unlock 40-50% upside for shareholders.

N5 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2019-11-07

PeptiDream, Inc. 4587 JP

PeptiDream's 19 pharma 'partnerships' are largely dormant and 13 years of R&D have produced zero Phase 2 drugs — analyst 2027 revenue forecasts will miss by over 60%.

N4 V2 C2
Starboard Value 2019-03-18

Bristol-Myers Squibb BMY

BMY is overpaying ~$30B for Celgene's risky pipeline, betting on 10 blockbusters in 8 years vs 3 in 15; shareholders should vote against and unlock 900bps of standalone margin upside.

N5 V3 C3
Starboard Value 2019-03-01

Bristol-Myers Squibb BMY

BMY's $91B Celgene deal bets the company on a REVLIMID patent cliff and pipeline requiring 10 blockbusters in 8 years — shareholders should vote no and pursue a standalone Amgen-style transformation.

N5 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2017-08-17

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. ADP

Employer Services margins are 1,500-2,000 bps below potential vs. Paychex and peers

N5 V4 C4
Elliott Management 2016-11-28

Cognizant Technology Solutions CTSH

Cognizant has deliberately capped margins at 19-20% for 20 years while revenue grew 70x

N4 V3 C3
Elliott Management 2016-11-01

Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC

Marathon is priced like a merchant refiner despite a 69% stable-earnings mix; dropping assets to MPLX and spinning Speedway, RefiningCo, and MidstreamCo unlocks $14-19bn (~60-80%+ upside).

N4 V4 C4
Muddy Waters 2016-08-25

St. Jude Medical, Inc. STJ

St. Jude's $23B cardiac-device franchise rests on a Merlin ecosystem so insecure that hackers can crash pacemakers from 50 feet — a recall and two-year remediation imply 50%+ downside and likely covenant breach.

N5 V2 C2
Marcato 2016-06-13

Buffalo Wild Wings BWLD

Buffalo Wild Wings should reverse course on low-return franchisee buy-ins, refranchise to 90% by 2020, recapitalize, and fix incentives — unlocking ~180% upside to ~$402.

N4 V4 C4
Greenlight Capital 2015-11-16

CONSOL Energy CNX

Market prices CONSOL as a dying coal miner, but its Marcellus/Utica shale gas acreage plus disciplined management make it worth $35.81/share versus $7.40 today.

N5 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2015-10-30

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

Citron's 'next Enron' channel-stuffing claim is verifiably false; Philidor accounting is conservative

N4 V3 C2
Pershing Square 2015-10-30

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

Citron's 'next Enron' channel-stuffing claim is verifiably false; Philidor accounting is conservative

N5 V3 C3
Greenlight Capital 2015-05-04

Pioneer Natural Resources PXD

Pioneer and the shale 'frackers' burn cash and destroy value on every BOE developed; their $27B market cap rests on proved reserves worth $3-8B — buy oil, not PXD.

N5 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2015-05-04

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

Platform companies are undervalued because P/E ignores value from future acquisitions

N5 V4 C4
Pershing Square 2015-05-01

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

Traditional P/E ignores Valeant's 'Platform Value' from disciplined M&A capital allocation

N4 V3 C3
Trian Partners 2015-04-21

E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (DuPont) DD

DuPont is a chronically underperforming conglomerate bloated with $2-4bn of excess costs; putting Trian on the board unlocks a $120+/share, 21% IRR path by 2017.

N5 V3 C3
Greenlight Capital 2015-04-07

AerCap Holdings AER

AerCap, the largest independent aircraft lessor, trades at 8.5x earnings; the equity should rerate as the credit markets already have post-ILFC deal, supported by low-teens ROE and ~10% EPS CAGR.

N4 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2014-11-20

Superb Summit International Group Limited 1228.HK

Superb Summit's HK$773m of reported revenue belongs to a coal company it never owned, and its HK$1.5bn JFT acquisition is a sham valuation routed through a mystery intermediary.

N4 V2 C2
Corvex 2014-10-14

Crown Castle International Corp. CCI

Crown Castle is a U.S. tower REIT 'betwixt and between' — raising the 2015 dividend to $4.00 (80% AFFO payout) re-rates the stock to a 4.0% yield, unlocking 27% near-term and 60%+ upside in 15 months.

N4 V3 C3
Greenlight Capital 2014-05-05

athenahealth ATHN

athenahealth is the poster child of the cloud 'bubble basket' — strip Morgan Stanley's fantasy margin and revenue-per-doctor assumptions and the stock falls 80%+ toward a $50 adjusted DCF.

N5 V2 C2
Pershing Square 2014-04-22

Allergan AGN

Valeant's Outsider-CEO model delivered 2,544% TSR (25x) in six years under Mike Pearson

N4 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2013-09-06

American Tower Corporation AMT

AMT's $4.8bn purchase of Global Tower Partners at ~19x 2014 EBITDA looks engineered to mask decelerating US organic growth and preserve 20% dividend-growth optics; maintain Strong Sell.

N3 V1 C1
Muddy Waters 2013-07-17

American Tower Corp AMT

AMT is a Strong Sell at $44.57 (40% downside): a $250M Brazil accounting discrepancy hints at fraud, international growth is a disguised lending/carry trade, and Wi-Fi will erode tower economics.

N4 V2 C2
Sandell 2012-10-01

TPC Group Inc. TPCG

TPC Group's $40/share take-private by First Reserve/SK Capital is a self-dealt, low-balled sale; a proper auction plus MLP re-rating would deliver materially higher value to shareholders.

N4 V2 C2
Marcato 2012-10-01

Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX); GenCorp (GY); Brookfield Residential Properties (BRP)

Three stocks — ALEX, GenCorp, Brookfield Residential — hide land assets on their balance sheets at decades-old cost, offering 46-286% upside once marked to market.

N3 V3 C2
Sandell 2011-10-01

Rubicon Limited RBC

Rubicon's NZ-listed holdco structure hides two world-class US assets — ArborGen and Tenon — that a Tenon auction, ArborGen NASDAQ relisting, and three new shareholder directors can unlock for 200-300%+ upside.

N4 V3 C2
Pershing Square 2008-11-19

Target Corporation TGT

Target trades at only 5.8x '09E EV/EBITDA while REITs trade 14.5x-35.7x — 22% of EBITDA mispriced

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2008-10-29

Target Corporation TGT

Target owns 95% of its buildings — more real estate than any big-box peer, worth $39bn replacement value

N5 V3 C3
Carl Icahn 2006-02-01

Time Warner Inc. TWX

Time Warner has underperformed its peer index by 51% under Parsons; splitting into four SpinCos (AOL, Content, Publishing, Cable) plus a $20bn buyback unlocks $30-45bn — a 35-54% premium.

N5 V4 C4
Pershing Square 2005-11-15

McDonald's Corporation MCD

McDonald's real estate is worth ~$46bn, ~94% of enterprise value, but trades like a restaurant stock

N5 V4 C3
Oasis Management

Kao Corporation 4452.JP

Kao, a 'sleeping giant' of premium FMCG brands hamstrung by a management allergic to growth, should refocus globally and rebuild the board, unlocking 76-97% upside.

N5 V4 C4