55 documents showing 1–55

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ACM Research, Inc. ACMR

ACMR trades at 1.1x revenue while its 82%-owned Shanghai subsidiary ACMS trades at 6x — a sum-of-parts gap that implies a 10-bagger as China's WFE self-sufficiency drive accelerates.

Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac FNMA / FMCC

Release Fannie and Freddie from conservatorship at a 2.5% capital standard and IPO them at ~$30+/share; Treasury's warrants generate ~$300bn while shares re-rate 5-6x from ~$6 today.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac FNMA/FMCC

Fannie and Freddie have already repaid Treasury at an 11.6% IRR; releasing them from conservatorship via modest IPOs unlocks ~$300bn of warrant value for taxpayers within two years.

Dye & Durham Limited DND

Dye & Durham's Board and CEO Matt Proud destroyed value chasing a $1bn EBITDA target through reckless M&A; Engine's six-director slate and new CEO can triple the share price to $46 in three years.

Oklo Inc. OKLO

Oklo is a $3bn pre-revenue SPAC nuclear story whose 5x-lowballed fuel costs, unrealistic 2027 NRC timeline, and inexperienced 'Nuclear Bros' management mean shares should collapse as reality intrudes.

Lumen Technologies LUMN

Lumen's 400% AI-fueled rally is an optical illusion: $5bn in PCF deals is construction-contractor funding worth ~$1/share, masking an insolvent, secularly declining telco with $19bn debt.

Kao Corporation 4452.JP

Kao has top-decile brands (Curel, Biore, Molton Brown) but bottom-decile management with a 'growth allergy' — fixing it Beiersdorf-style unlocks 76-97% upside.

Zillow Group, Inc. Z

Zillow's Premier Agent core is saturated, NAR lawsuits will compress commissions, Flex/Super App cannot replace it, and aggressive revenue recognition masks decline — shares worth $23-$35 vs $57.

Carvana Co. CVNA

Carvana at $70 is priced as a tech disruptor, but it's 'just a dealership' with CarMax-like unit economics and a levered balance sheet — fair value is $16, -77%.

Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 KS

Samsung C&T trades at a 63% discount to its $40.4bn NAV; fixing capital allocation, governance and the opaque group structure closes a $25bn value gap worth ~170% upside.

Sunrun Inc. RUN

Sunrun's non-GAAP Subscriber count exceeds mandatory EIA filings by ~20%, implying phantom customers, ~$1.5B of overstated Net Earning Assets (62.5% of market cap), and possible ITC tax fraud.

Multiple (Wix, Salesforce, Splunk, Vertiv) WIX / CRM / SPLK / VRT

Four high-quality TMT names (Wix, Salesforce, Splunk, Vertiv) trade at multi-year-low valuations; closing the margin gap to peers as the market shifts from growth to profitability unlocks substantial FCF/share upside.

Sunrun Inc. RUN

Sunrun's equity story rests on three shaky pillars — inflated subscriber values, abusive IRS tax-basis gaming, and fragile ABS — that together imply an 85% haircut to Net Earning Assets.

C3.ai, Inc. AI

C3.ai is a serially rebranded, money-losing AI story-stock propped up by an unraveling Baker Hughes JV and aggressive accounting; Spruce Point sees 40-50% downside to $12.85-$15.40.

Genius Sports Limited GENI

Genius Sports is a low-moat data middleman overpaying for league rights and inflating growth via barter revenue; 55m shares of overhang unlock imminently — 60-80% downside to $3.25-$6.50.

Teck Resources TECK

Teck is the overlooked pick-axes play on the EV/green-electrification copper boom — QB2 doubles its copper mix and at forward-curve copper the stock is worth ~C$59, nearly double.

Hilton Grand Vacations HGV

HGV is overpaying 10x EBITDA for Diamond and handing Apollo effective control with no premium; standalone HGV is worth $55 — shareholders should vote AGAINST.

Danimer Scientific, Inc. DNMR

Danimer is an over-hyped SPAC bioplastics story whose governance-tainted management, irreconcilable facility claims, failed-PHA precedent, and 138x EBITDA valuation imply 65-100% downside to ~$8.75/share.

Avery Dennison Corporation AVY

Avery Dennison masks structural decline with restructuring add-backs and inflated Adjusted EBITDA/FCF; normalized for accounting manipulation, AVY is worth $68-99/share — 35-55% downside.

eHealth, Inc. EHTH

EHTH books Medicare Advantage revenue today that takes nine to twenty years to collect, masking a cash-incinerating, high-churn business reminiscent of Enron-style accounting.

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ALXN

Alexion's stand-alone strategy has failed — serial M&A missteps and a deep valuation discount mean the Board must pursue a sale now to unlock 40-50% upside for shareholders.

Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. IIPR

IIPR is a cannabis REIT propped up by overpriced sale-leasebacks to insolvent tenants and sham markups; fair value is $22.29 versus a $69 share price.

WD-40 Company WDFC

WD-40 is a promotional, no-moat lubricant company hiding a balance-sheet hole and bloated inventory behind a 28x EBITDA multiple — Spruce Point sees 55-60% downside to $75-$85.

LHC Group, Inc. LHCG

LHCG's 20.6x EBITDA multiple rests on phantom organic growth — excluding the failing Almost Family acquisition inflates growth ~500 bps, masking sub-2% reality and 35-65% downside to $60-$90.

PeptiDream, Inc. 4587 JP

PeptiDream's 19 pharma 'partnerships' are largely dormant and 13 years of R&D have produced zero Phase 2 drugs — analyst 2027 revenue forecasts will miss by over 60%.

Hill-Rom Holdings, Inc. HRC

Hill-Rom is a low-quality medical roll-up whose plateauing new products, exhausted margin expansion and aggressive accounting point to a 25-55% drop to $45-$75 per share.

Bristol-Myers Squibb BMY

BMY is overpaying ~$30B for Celgene's risky pipeline, betting on 10 blockbusters in 8 years vs 3 in 15; shareholders should vote against and unlock 900bps of standalone margin upside.

Bristol-Myers Squibb BMY

BMY's $91B Celgene deal bets the company on a REVLIMID patent cliff and pipeline requiring 10 blockbusters in 8 years — shareholders should vote no and pursue a standalone Amgen-style transformation.

Maxar Technologies MAXR

Maxar's MDA-DigitalGlobe merger masks a collapsing satellite cycle and the most aggressive accounting Spruce Point has ever seen, leaving 5.8x-levered MAXR with 100% downside risk.

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. ADP

ADP is a sleeping giant earning 19% Employer Services margins versus peers' 35-40% potential; electing Pershing's nominees catalyzes a transformation worth 100%+ in under four years.

Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC

Marathon is priced like a merchant refiner despite a 69% stable-earnings mix; dropping assets to MPLX and spinning Speedway, RefiningCo, and MidstreamCo unlocks $14-19bn (~60-80%+ upside).

St. Jude Medical, Inc. STJ

St. Jude's $23B cardiac-device franchise rests on a Merlin ecosystem so insecure that hackers can crash pacemakers from 50 feet — a recall and two-year remediation imply 50%+ downside and likely covenant breach.

Buffalo Wild Wings BWLD

Buffalo Wild Wings should reverse course on low-return franchisee buy-ins, refranchise to 90% by 2020, recapitalize, and fix incentives — unlocking ~180% upside to ~$402.

CONSOL Energy CNX

Market prices CONSOL as a dying coal miner, but its Marcellus/Utica shale gas acreage plus disciplined management make it worth $35.81/share versus $7.40 today.

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

Citron's 'next Enron' attack on Valeant is a 1963 AmEx Salad Oil rerun — Philidor is ~7% of sales, the franchise is intact, and VRX at 7x cash EPS offers 60-215% upside.

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

Citron's 'next Enron' attack on Valeant overstates the risk: Philidor is only ~6% of sales, and even written off, VRX trades at ~8x 2016 cash EPS with 135%+ long-term upside.

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

Valeant is mis-valued on a traditional earnings multiple; crediting its Pearson-led Platform Value — like Jarden or Danaher — unlocks $330+/share, ~48% upside from $223.

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

Valeant is a platform compounder that traditional P/E undervalues; SOTP plus credit for ongoing M&A implies $330+/share vs $223 today, with up to $618 by 2020.

Pioneer Natural Resources PXD

Pioneer and the shale 'frackers' burn cash and destroy value on every BOE developed; their $27B market cap rests on proved reserves worth $3-8B — buy oil, not PXD.

E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (DuPont) DD

DuPont is a chronically underperforming conglomerate bloated with $2-4bn of excess costs; putting Trian on the board unlocks a $120+/share, 21% IRR path by 2017.

AerCap Holdings AER

AerCap, the largest independent aircraft lessor, trades at 8.5x earnings; the equity should rerate as the credit markets already have post-ILFC deal, supported by low-teens ROE and ~10% EPS CAGR.

Superb Summit International Group Limited 1228.HK

Superb Summit's HK$773m of reported revenue belongs to a coal company it never owned, and its HK$1.5bn JFT acquisition is a sham valuation routed through a mystery intermediary.

Crown Castle International Corp. CCI

Crown Castle is a U.S. tower REIT 'betwixt and between' — raising the 2015 dividend to $4.00 (80% AFFO payout) re-rates the stock to a 4.0% yield, unlocking 27% near-term and 60%+ upside in 15 months.

athenahealth ATHN

athenahealth is the poster child of the cloud 'bubble basket' — strip Morgan Stanley's fantasy margin and revenue-per-doctor assumptions and the stock falls 80%+ toward a $50 adjusted DCF.

Allergan, Inc. AGN

Allergan shareholders should accept Valeant's bid: Valeant is an 'Outsider'-style acquirer (25x TSR under Pearson) whose lean R&D and platform M&A will compound Val-gan's value far beyond Allergan standalone.

American Tower Corporation AMT

AMT's $4.8bn purchase of Global Tower Partners at ~19x 2014 EBITDA looks engineered to mask decelerating US organic growth and preserve 20% dividend-growth optics; maintain Strong Sell.

American Tower Corp AMT

AMT is a Strong Sell at $44.57 (40% downside): a $250M Brazil accounting discrepancy hints at fraud, international growth is a disguised lending/carry trade, and Wi-Fi will erode tower economics.

TPC Group Inc. TPCG

TPC Group's $40/share take-private by First Reserve/SK Capital is a self-dealt, low-balled sale; a proper auction plus MLP re-rating would deliver materially higher value to shareholders.

Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX); GenCorp (GY); Brookfield Residential Properties (BRP)

Three stocks — ALEX, GenCorp, Brookfield Residential — hide land assets on their balance sheets at decades-old cost, offering 46-286% upside once marked to market.

Rubicon Limited RBC

Rubicon's NZ-listed holdco structure hides two world-class US assets — ArborGen and Tenon — that a Tenon auction, ArborGen NASDAQ relisting, and three new shareholder directors can unlock for 200-300%+ upside.

Target Corporation TGT

Target's land is mispriced inside a 5.8x retail multiple; a <20% IPO of 'TIP REIT' followed by a tax-free spin re-rates the real estate at REIT multiples and lifts the stock from $37 to $67 now, $80 by 2010.

Time Warner Inc. TWX

Time Warner has underperformed its peer index by 51% under Parsons; splitting into four SpinCos (AOL, Content, Publishing, Cable) plus a $20bn buyback unlocks $30-45bn — a 35-54% premium.

McDonald's Corporation MCD

McDonald's is a hidden real-estate and franchise business trading as a restaurant operator; IPO'ing 65% of McOpCo and re-levering PropCo unlocks $45-50 per share, a 37-52% premium.

Kao Corporation 4452.JP

Kao, a 'sleeping giant' of premium FMCG brands hamstrung by a management allergic to growth, should refocus globally and rebuild the board, unlocking 76-97% upside.