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Citron Research Dec 10, 2019

Peloton Interactive PTON

Peloton trades at 2,286% above peers on EV per subscriber; once a cannibalizing app, undifferentiated hardware, and a March lockup wave hit, the stock collapses to $5.

Spruce Point Capital Dec 05, 2019

Canadian Tire Corporation CTC.A

Canadian Tire is an over-levered legacy retailer masking decline with aggressive accounting and risky credit card lending; looming downgrade forces asset sales and 35-50% downside to C$77-100.

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Grizzly Research Dec 01, 2019

Trulieve Cannabis Corp TRUL

Trulieve's premium-grower story is a fraud: cultivation is mostly cheap hoop houses, profits rely on biological-asset mark-ups, and the CEO's husband sits at the center of an FBI corruption probe.

Trian Partners Nov 14, 2019

Ferguson plc FERG

Ferguson is a US specialty distributor trapped in a UK listing; demerging Wolseley and relisting in the US closes a 10.4x-vs-17.2x EBITDA peer gap.

Spruce Point Capital Nov 13, 2019

Cintas Corp. CTAS

Cintas's fastest-growing fire inspection business is committing fraud while G&K integration masks financial strain — a sum-of-parts at peer M&A multiples implies 60-75% downside to $69-$107/sh.

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Muddy Waters Nov 07, 2019

PeptiDream, Inc. 4587 JP

PeptiDream's 19 pharma 'partnerships' are largely dormant and 13 years of R&D have produced zero Phase 2 drugs — analyst 2027 revenue forecasts will miss by over 60%.

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Spruce Point Capital Oct 29, 2019

Hill-Rom Holdings, Inc. HRC

Hill-Rom is a low-quality medical roll-up whose plateauing new products, exhausted margin expansion and aggressive accounting point to a 25-55% drop to $45-$75 per share.

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Spruce Point Capital Oct 09, 2019

Monolithic Power Systems MPWR

MPWR's Chinese tax filings show $262m missing revenue and near-zero inventory despite 90% production in China — accounting red flags point to 75-85% downside.

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Spruce Point Capital Sep 25, 2019

Premier, Inc. PINC

Premier's earnings are artificially inflated by expiring pre-IPO shareback contracts; as member hospitals renegotiate at market rates, EBITDA halves and shares fall 55-75% to $8-$15.

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Elliott Management Sep 24, 2019

Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC

Marathon Petroleum's conglomerate structure traps $22–$40bn of value; separating Refining, Midstream and Retail into three focused companies unlocks 60%+ upside now and over 100% long-term.

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White Diamond Research Sep 16, 2019

Accelerate Diagnostics AXDX

AXDX is a one-product company whose Pheno system is a flawed niche diagnostic — missed reagent targets, a looming Mayo-UCLA study failure, and cash burn point to 70% downside to a $6 price target.

Spruce Point Capital Sep 05, 2019

Church & Dwight Co., Inc. CHD

CHD trades at an all-time-high premium as a trade-war safe haven, but CEO Farrell's financial-engineering roll-up is cracking; 35-50% downside to $40-$52/share.

Spruce Point Capital Jul 31, 2019

Penumbra, Inc. PEN

Penumbra is a commoditized single-product 510(k) company whose aspiration-catheter franchise is collapsing to deep-pocketed bundlers; Spruce Point sees 40-55% downside to $85-110 per share.

Spruce Point Capital Jul 24, 2019

Mettler-Toledo International, Inc. MTD

Mettler-Toledo's flawless EPS record masks aggressive capitalization, an empty Shanghai office, and PwC auditor conflicts — implying 30-50% downside to $410-$574 per share.

Kerrisdale Capital Jul 01, 2019

CareDx, Inc. CDNA

CareDx is a $1.7bn story built on AllSure, a cfDNA kidney-rejection test that misses 40% of rejections and faces 70% annual patient attrition, competition and Medicare reset — ~70% downside.

Grizzly Research Jun 27, 2019

New Age Beverage Corp. NBEV

NBEV paid $85m for Morinda, an MLM with inflated China financials and missing licenses in 60% of provinces — stock faces 60% immediate downside.

Starboard Value Jun 20, 2019

AECOM ACM

AECOM is a collection of under-integrated franchises; a Jacobs-style operational overhaul plus outright sales of MS and CS can close a 5.3x multiple discount to peers.

Spruce Point Capital Jun 19, 2019

Axon Enterprise (formerly TASER) AAXN

Axon is a mature Taser maker masquerading as a SaaS cloud story; aggressive accounting, China-tariff margin pressure, and TAM inflation justify a $27.50-$40 target — 40-60% downside.

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Third Point Jun 13, 2019

Sony Corporation 6758.T

Sony trades at a ~50% conglomerate discount; spinning Semiconductors into 'Sony Technologies', divesting listed stakes, and refocusing on entertainment unlocks ~2x SOTP upside.

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Wolfpack Research Jun 06, 2019

GTT Communications, Inc. GTT

GTT Communications is a fundamentally broken telecom rollup using non-GAAP metrics and aggressive accounting to hide negative organic growth, unsustainable leverage, and an inevitable dilutive equity raise.

Citron Research Jun 01, 2019

FleetCor Technologies FLT

FleetCor's Clean Advantage carbon-offset program is a $100M+ green fraud — 97% of fees stay with FLT, demanding CEO Clarke's resignation and implying ~57% downside.

Spruce Point Capital May 23, 2019

Verint Systems, Inc. VRNT

Verint's reported 8% growth is a mirage of M&A, FX and ASC 606 tailwinds masking negative organic growth; rerate to BPO peer multiples for 60-70% downside to $17-25.

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Spruce Point Capital May 16, 2019

A.O. Smith Corporation AOS

A.O. Smith's China growth is cracking while revenue-recognition red flags, unsustainable 40%+ margins and vanishing insider ownership point to 45-65% downside to $17.75-$27.30.

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Spruce Point Capital May 07, 2019

Kornit Digital Ltd. KRNT

Kornit's 2018 boom was an Amazon warrant-and-rebate illusion — 105% of cash flow came from one customer, a scandal-tainted CFO is covering it, leaving 75-85% downside to $4.50-$9.30.

Spruce Point Capital Apr 30, 2019

PetIQ, Inc. PETQ

PetIQ's grey-market vet-drug margins and rebate-dependent earnings are unsustainable as Merial goes direct-to-retail, while a $200M wellness-center cash burn and the CEO's Petters/Fleming ties imply 75-90% downside.

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Spruce Point Capital Apr 09, 2019

Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. AJRD

AJRD's rocket franchise is eroding as Blue Origin and SpaceX displace it; aggressive accounting and ~$900M ignored liabilities mask 5x leverage and 40-60% downside to $13-$20.

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Spruce Point Capital Mar 21, 2019

Dexcom, Inc. DXCM

Dexcom's blow-out growth is a sugar high — driven by hidden price hikes and sensor stockpiling — and Abbott's cheap Libre 2 will commoditize CGMs, taking DXCM down 45-60% to $65-$85.

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Starboard Value Mar 18, 2019

Bristol-Myers Squibb BMY

BMY is overpaying ~$30B for Celgene's risky pipeline, betting on 10 blockbusters in 8 years vs 3 in 15; shareholders should vote against and unlock 900bps of standalone margin upside.

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Starboard Value Mar 01, 2019

Bristol-Myers Squibb BMY

BMY's $91B Celgene deal bets the company on a REVLIMID patent cliff and pipeline requiring 10 blockbusters in 8 years — shareholders should vote no and pursue a standalone Amgen-style transformation.

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Elliott Management Mar 01, 2019

Telecom Italia TIT.MI

Vivendi destroyed value at TIM during its control; shareholders must reject Bolloré's nominees at the March 29 AGM and keep the independent board.

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Spruce Point Capital Mar 01, 2019

Carvana Co. CVNA

Carvana is a CCC+-rated subprime used-car dealer masquerading as a tech disruptor; Spruce Point sees 56-83% downside to $7.50-$19.60, with a credible path to zero.

Starboard Value Feb 28, 2019

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY

Bristol-Myers' $91bn Celgene acquisition buys pharma's largest patent cliff; Starboard urges shareholders to vote it down and replace directors to pursue a standalone plan or sale.

Starboard Value Feb 28, 2019

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY

Starboard urges BMY shareholders to reject the $91B Celgene acquisition — it imports a massive REVLIMID patent cliff and was rushed through without exploring standalone turnaround or a sale of Bristol-Myers.

Starboard Value Feb 22, 2019

Magellan Health, Inc. MGLN

Magellan destroyed $700M of value through failed acquisitions and three 2018 guidance cuts; Starboard's six-director slate will overhaul the board and run a parallel sale process at peer multiples.

Citron Research Feb 15, 2019

Inogen INGN

Inogen's growth is built on a reseller network that lies to elderly customers about Medicare coverage to force cash sales — competition and oversight will collapse margins to a $46 stock.

Pershing Square Feb 13, 2019

Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. PSH

PSH offers an activist portfolio compounding well above the S&P 500, available at a 27% discount to NAV, with a new dividend, buybacks, and insider buying narrowing the gap.

Muddy Waters Feb 08, 2019

Inogen, Inc. INGN

Inogen's growth story rests on a fabricated TAM sourced from a plagiarism-riddled WinterGreen report; real market is shrinking, peak sales arrive 2019-2020, target $46 (-67%).

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Spruce Point Capital Jan 23, 2019

Amdocs Limited DOX

Spruce Point sees 25-50% downside in Amdocs (DOX): a Guernsey-domiciled telecom-IT vendor whose steady margins, opaque insider selling via Pines Quest, and dot-com-era accounting tricks signal $30-$45 per share.

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Starboard Value Jan 07, 2019

Dollar Tree, Inc. DLTR

Dollar Tree is deeply undervalued because Family Dollar is a failed acquisition and the $1 price ceiling is a self-imposed cap; selling Family Dollar and testing multi-price points unlocks $150/share.

Spruce Point Capital Dec 13, 2018

XPO Logistics, Inc. XPO

XPO is a United-Rentals-style roll-up masking financial strain with aggressive accounting and a felon-linked board; normalized EPS is 47% overstated, implying 40–60% downside.

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Starboard Value Dec 10, 2018

Cars.com Inc. CARS

Starboard, a ~10% holder, warns Cars.com's board that serial guide-downs must end with credible 2019-2021 targets, a third independent director, and — absent improvement — management change or a sale.

Carl Icahn Nov 15, 2018

Dell Technologies (Class V / DVMT tracking stock) DVMT

Dell's $109 buyout of the DVMT tracker is really $90 — a 42% discount engineered to transfer $11bn from public holders to Michael Dell and Silver Lake. Vote no.

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Spruce Point Capital Oct 31, 2018

Dollarama Inc. DOL

Dollarama trades 50% above peers as a 'dollar store' now selling $4 goods; reversing FX hedges, Dollar Tree's arrival and governance red flags imply ~40% downside to C$24.60.

Citron Research Oct 23, 2018

Tesla, Inc. TSLA

After five years short, Citron reverses on Tesla: Model 3 is dominating luxury and EV segments, Munro confirms 30% margins, and worst-case math yields $599/share.

Spruce Point Capital Oct 17, 2018

Mercury Systems Inc. MRCY

Mercury Systems faces 50-60% downside as Supermicro-hack exposure, missing cyber leadership, hidden A/R factoring, and the sector's richest multiple collide with rising DFARS compliance costs.

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Trian Partners Oct 11, 2018

PPG Industries, Inc. PPG

PPG has underperformed peers by 3,500 bps under CEO McGarry; Trian wants Chuck Bunch reinstalled, the balance sheet levered, and the portfolio split into Architectural and Industrial to unlock ~40% upside.

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Pershing Square Oct 09, 2018

Starbucks SBUX

Starbucks at 22x forward P/E vs. 26x historical average is a rare chance to own a category-killer coffee brand — fixable U.S. SSS and a $14bn buyback reverting the multiple doubles the stock.

Third Point Oct 01, 2018

Campbell Soup Company CPB

Campbell's incumbent board delivered 19% TSR vs 306% S&P over 20 years; replace the entire board with Third Point's Independent Slate to unlock $52-58/share via turnaround, breakup, or sale.

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Spruce Point Capital Sep 26, 2018

Henry Schein, Inc. HSIC

HSIC's soon-to-spin Vets First Corp is growing far faster than the Street thinks — proprietary data shows 75% install-base growth, driving a $106-126 SOTP target vs. $84 today.

Spruce Point Capital Sep 05, 2018

Weis Markets, Inc. WMK

Weis Markets is the most expensive U.S. supermarket masking -1-2% organic decline with aggressive accounting and shrinking disclosures; Spruce Point sees 45-65% downside.

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Citron Research Aug 28, 2018

Wayfair W

Wayfair's unit economics are deteriorating — loss per new customer nearly doubled to $19 — while the stock defies gravity; Citron is re-shorting with a first stop at $100.

Spruce Point Capital Aug 07, 2018

Maxar Technologies MAXR

Maxar's MDA-DigitalGlobe merger masks a collapsing satellite cycle and the most aggressive accounting Spruce Point has ever seen, leaving 5.8x-levered MAXR with 100% downside risk.

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Spruce Point Capital Jul 19, 2018

2U, Inc. TWOU

2U's one-size-fits-all OPM model is being disrupted by lower-take-rate fee-for-service rivals; FOIA-documented program failures imply 30-50% downside to $47-$65/share.

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Third Point Jul 01, 2018

Nestlé S.A. NESN

Nestlé has been too slow to adapt to a changing consumer industry; adopting a #NestléNOW mindset — sharper strategy, bolder portfolio divestitures including the L'Oréal stake, and a three-division split — can double EPS by 2022.

Spruce Point Capital Jun 27, 2018

Momo, Inc. MOMO

Momo's 'blowout' live-video numbers hide a SAIC fraud charge, 123 undisclosed VIE subs, an illegal gambling site, and a fading KOL base — 30-50% downside to $23-$32.

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Spruce Point Capital Jun 07, 2018

Healthcare Trust of America, Inc. HTA

HTA's suspiciously flat Same-Property NOI growth mirrors Brixmor's pre-restatement pattern; Spruce Point sees 20-40% downside to $15-$20 once the accounting unravels.

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Citron Research May 31, 2018

Snap Inc. SNAP

SNAP is the cheapest social stock at 3x sales with 21% short interest, dominant teen mindshare and Tencent backing — upside to $17 as shorts cover.

Carl Icahn May 24, 2018

SandRidge Energy SD

SandRidge trades at a ~45% discount to its own PV-10 because the post-bankruptcy 'bankruptcy board' destroys value via dilutive deals; replace it with Icahn's slate to run a real sale process.

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Spruce Point Capital May 17, 2018

U.S. Concrete Inc USCR

USCR's 21% gross margins and Adj EBITDA growth are engineered via capital leases and overcapitalized truck costs; CEO Sandbrook should resign and shares face 60-90% downside to $6-$25.

Land & Buildings May 10, 2018

Taubman Centers, Inc. TCO

Taubman's persistent peer underperformance stems from a family-entrenched board and dual-class structure; electing Litt and collapsing Series B shares unlocks value common shareholders have been denied.