Contrarian Corpus

399 documents showing 361–399

Corvex 2012-10-24

ADT Corporation ADT

ADT is drastically under-levered post-Tyco spin; levering to 3.0x EBITDA and repurchasing ~30% of the float delivers ~44% upside to a $55 target.

N4 V3 C3
Sandell 2012-10-01

TPC Group Inc. TPCG

TPC Group's $40/share take-private by First Reserve/SK Capital is a self-dealt, low-balled sale; a proper auction plus MLP re-rating would deliver materially higher value to shareholders.

N4 V2 C2
Marcato 2012-10-01

Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX); GenCorp (GY); Brookfield Residential Properties (BRP)

Three stocks — ALEX, GenCorp, Brookfield Residential — hide land assets on their balance sheets at decades-old cost, offering 46-286% upside once marked to market.

N3 V3 C2
Trian Partners 2012-06-18

Lazard Ltd LAZ

Lazard's premier advisory and asset-management franchise trades at a discount; executing the April 2012 plan to 25%+ margins, disciplined capital return, and stronger governance can nearly double the stock to ~$51.

N4 V3 C3
Elliott Management 2012-05-31

BMC Software BMC

BMC has underperformed every peer and index over 1-, 2-, 3-year and YTD windows

N5 V4 C4
Starboard Value 2012-05-23

AOL, Inc. AOL

AOL's board lets management burn Access/Search cash on a Display strategy losing $500M+ a year; elect three Starboard nominees to enforce discipline and restructure or exit Patch.

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2012-05-16

J.C. Penney Company, Inc. JCP

Ron Johnson (Target, Apple Retail) can repeat his retail magic at chronically mismanaged JCP

N5 V4 C4
Pershing Square 2012-04-04

Burger King Worldwide Holdings BKW

Back best-in-class 3G management team retaining 70%+ equity

N3 V2 C2
Pershing Square 2012-02-06

Canadian Pacific Railway CP

CP has the worst operating ratio of any Class I railroad while closest peer CN has the best

N5 V4 C5
Sandell 2011-12-01

Tronox Incorporated TROX

Post-Exxaro Tronox is the lowest-cost, fully-integrated TiO2 producer; levering up for a $24-$43/share special dividend plus relisting unlocks $183-$194/share, 56-66% upside.

N3 V2 C2
Pershing Square 2011-11-08

Lowe's Companies, Inc. LOW

LOW trades at 13.3x depressed EPS with ~8% FCF yield — cheap

N3 V3 C2
Pershing Square 2011-10-18

Fortune Brands Home & Security FBHS

Orphaned post-spin-off stock — recovery optionality mispriced at $13

N4 V3 C3
Greenlight Capital 2011-10-17

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters GMCR

GMCR's $9 EPS bull case ignores a smaller TAM, falling K-cup attachment rates, a September 2012 patent cliff, and accounting shenanigans at fulfillment agent MBlock — realistic EPS is ~$3.50.

N5 V2 C2
Trian Partners 2011-10-16

State Street Corporation STT

State Street subsidized growth at the expense of profitability; committing to 35% EBT margins, capital return, and a possible SSgA spin can lift shares from $34 to ~$99 by 2014.

N4 V3 C3
Sandell 2011-10-01

Rubicon Limited RBC

Rubicon's NZ-listed holdco structure hides two world-class US assets — ArborGen and Tenon — that a Tenon auction, ArborGen NASDAQ relisting, and three new shareholder directors can unlock for 200-300%+ upside.

N4 V3 C2
Third Point 2011-09-14

Yahoo! Inc. YHOO

Yahoo's Asian assets and cash alone cover its $14 price; with a new board and unlocked 40% Alibaba stake, intrinsic value is $20-32 per share — 40-122% upside.

N4 V3 C3
JANA Partners 2011-08-22

The McGraw-Hill Companies MHP

McGraw-Hill's conglomerate structure masks four independently attractive assets; separating MH Education, Information & Media and the S&P Index business plus an accelerated buyback unlocks ~60% upside to ~$65.

N4 V3 C2
Pershing Square 2011-05-25

Family Dollar Stores FDO

FDO trades at same ~9x forward EBIT as Dollar General despite 37% performance gap

N5 V3 C3
Elliott Management 2011-03-09

Iron Mountain Incorporated IRM

IRM's core storage is a compelling REIT — conversion unlocks ~$10.58/share in tax savings plus cap rate re-rating

N4 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2011-02-03

China MediaExpress Holdings CCME

CCME is a pump-and-dump: reported revenue is overstated ~5x, its bus network is half the claimed size, and management is cashing out — fair value $5.28 vs $16.61.

N4 V2 C2
Pershing Square 2010-05-26

General Growth Properties GGP

GGP is worth ~$20/share sum-of-parts ($15 PF GGP + $5 GGO) vs. $14 price — 43% upside by year-end

N5 V4 C4
Pershing Square 2009-12-07

Mall REIT sector (long General Growth Properties) GGP

Mall REITs still trade at 7.8% cap rates vs. 6.3% Baa — a historically wide spread

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2009-10-20

Corrections Corporation of America CXW

CXW trades at a 12% cap rate vs ~7% for Health Care REITs with near-identical attributes

N5 V4 C3
Pershing Square 2009-10-06

Realty Income Corporation O

Tenant base is mostly junk-rated discretionary retailers with high bankruptcy risk

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2009-05-27

General Growth Properties GGWPQ

GGP's assets materially exceed liabilities — this is a liquidity bankruptcy, not insolvency

N5 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2009-05-11

Target Corporation TGT

Target board lacks senior operating experience in retail, credit cards, and real estate

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2008-11-19

Target Corporation TGT

Target trades at only 5.8x '09E EV/EBITDA while REITs trade 14.5x-35.7x — 22% of EBITDA mispriced

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2008-10-29

Target Corporation TGT

Target owns 95% of its buildings — more real estate than any big-box peer, worth $39bn replacement value

N5 V3 C3
Greenlight Capital 2008-05-21

Lehman Brothers LEH

Lehman is using fair-value accounting tricks to hide CDO losses and inflate Level 3 marks; the firm is over-levered, opaque, and needs to recapitalize before the Fed has to step in.

N5 V2 C1
Pershing Square 2008-05-21

Wendy's International WEN

Wendy's is 93% a brand-royalty and real-estate business masquerading as a restaurant chain

N5 V3 C3
Greenlight Capital 2008-05-21

Lehman Brothers LEH

Lehman quietly disclosed $6.5bn of previously hidden CDO exposure but took only a $200m write-down

N5 V2 C2
Pershing Square 2006-11-09

Borders Group, Inc. BGP

Book superstore industry is misunderstood — Amazon risk is exaggerated and superstores have gained share

N4 V3 C3
Carl Icahn 2006-02-01

Time Warner Inc. TWX

Time Warner has underperformed its peer index by 51% under Parsons; splitting into four SpinCos (AOL, Content, Publishing, Cable) plus a $20bn buyback unlocks $30-45bn — a 35-54% premium.

N5 V4 C4
Pershing Square 2006-01-18

McDonald's Corporation MCD

McDonald's is fundamentally not a restaurant company — 78-86% of EBITDA comes from Brand McDonald's

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2005-11-15

McDonald's Corporation MCD

McDonald's real estate is worth ~$46bn, ~94% of enterprise value, but trades like a restaurant stock

N5 V4 C3
Greenlight Capital 2002-06-17

Allied Capital ALD

Allied appears to flout SEC fair value rules by using SBA-style accounting to overstate NAV

N5 V2 C1
Oasis Management

Kao Corporation 4452.JP

Kao, a 'sleeping giant' of premium FMCG brands hamstrung by a management allergic to growth, should refocus globally and rebuild the board, unlocking 76-97% upside.

N5 V4 C4
Starboard Value

Fluor Corporation FLR

Fluor's $4bn NuScale stake masks a transformed EPCM core trading at just 2.8x EBITDA; separating NuScale unlocks a re-rating to peer 6-13x multiples.

N4 V4 C4
Elliott Management

Hess Corporation HES

Hess has underperformed every relevant peer over every time frame of John Hess's 17-year CEO tenure

N5 V4 C4