"Bunge is a cash incinerating agribusiness roll-up which we estimate has a cumulative cash flow deficit of ($1.6bn) since 1999 while distributing $4.7bn and $3.9bn towards dividends and share repurchases."
Callouts & quotes from 984+ activist slides
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"PetIQ is more levered than it would otherwise seem, which will amplify its inevitable share price decline once investors recognize that the business won't hit its targets and will continue to burn cash."
"HHH will be a well-capitalized company with access to equity and debt capital and excess free cash flow from HHC, which will be reinvested in high-return, controlling investments in operating businesses"
"A seven-year extension of GGP’s secured and unsecured loans at their existing interest rates would provide the Company with sufficient time to use cash flow from operations to delever its balance sheet."
"CTO is Obscuring the Fact that Their Core Cash Flows from Operations Have Never Been Enough to Cover Their Dividend and Pay for Recurring Capex with an AFFO Metric That Is an Aberration from Their Peers"
"On the balance sheet side, as of the latest financials (ending December 2019), New Pacific had about C$43 million in current liquid assets (including C$33.6 million in cash and C$8.7 million in bonds.)"
"Because prisons are made of concrete and steel, depreciation expense meaningfully exceeds maintenance capex. As a result, CXW’s free cash flow per share is substantially greater than earnings per share"
"Non-GAAP adjustments to Operating Cash Flow were conveniently just enough to push Non-GAAP Operating Cash Flow beyond management's comp target threshold of $230M (which it did not meet on a GAAP basis)"
"...InternationalCo would be forced to assume all of Hess' existing debt and therefore restrict InternationalCo's financial flexibility, future growth rate, and ability to return cash to shareholders."
"Result is Hess is penalized twice: Penalty #1: Multiple-based valuation undervalues Bakken; Penalty #2: Hess given lower multiple than peers due in part to higher capital intensity and cash flow gap."
"Our research on Novomer causes us to think that the $152 million cash Novomer acquisition is based more on hope than realism, and could signal that DNMR has concerns about scaling its own technology."
"AOL's EBITDA growth ranked lowest among its peers and free cash flow growth was near the lowest quartile, while its CEO and CFO bonus payouts ranked in the 83rd and 96th percentile compared to peers."
"We find it difficult to believe that the accounting team could overlook $19.7 million in cash and payments collected from customers, and at the same time also forget about an equal amount of assets."
"Based on the highly cash-generative nature of HHH’s real estate assets, we expect that HHH will redeem PSH’s preferred stock and increase its economic ownership of Vantage to 100% within three years"
"We estimate that the company will fall short of 2022E revenue and EBITDA by 35%, while we estimate that Levered Free Cash Flow in 2022E will be $74.3 million, or 80% lower than what forecasts imply."
"Factoring in this real cash expense, we calculate CTO's industry standard AFFO would have been $29.9 million, leaving a $10 million shortfall after paying common shareholders their dividend in 2024."
"With Axon's cash flow going negative in Q1, its adjusted free cash flow over the last year is jut $4.9 million. Axon's valuation looks expensive relative to its declining and meager free cash flow."
"With the capital spending behind them, starting in 2023, depreciation will exceed capital spending, leading to even higher Free Cash Flow per share. So, it may be at 4.6x cash flow at $4.50 copper."
"From 2009 to 2011, AOL's revenue declined nearly twice as fast as total operating expenses, causing EBITDA and free cash flow to decline by a staggering $700 million and $575 million, respectively."
"Despite its high growth potential and IRRs in these two plays, and its cash generating core MS Lime position, SandRidge trades at a deep discount to its Peers and its own PV-10 proved reserve base."
"DGW’s auditor was clearly inattentive in not seeing that DGW had misclassified property deposits in the cash flow statement in a way that artificially boosted its pre-IPO year operating cash flow."
"Directors now cannot defer compensation and must take it in the current period. This raises our suspicion that insiders are opting to take cash out before financial stress increases in the future."
"Magnite's Pro Forma operating cash flow declined -143% YTD 2019 vs 2020 and this assumes zero cash burn contribution from Telaria in Q1 2020, a period that it did not disclose separate financials."
"In our view, the problem with MPLN is that the company stopped giving customers the level of service that they wanted several years ago, as private equity firms were looting the business for cash."
"RTC Plan calls for Crown Castle to achieve a capex revenue ROI in excess of 40% on annual fiber discretionary capex of $600M (versus $1.4B), which turns fiber into a cash flow generative business"
"Since Allied recognized $65 million in non-cash earnings last year that it paid out in dividends, Allied had to finance that payment by shrinking the portfolio, borrowing money or selling equity."
"Globant’s lack of cash flow generation from its core operations, decelerating organic growth, and potentially misleading claims by management are all reflected in our choice of its multiple range"
"Two material weaknesses, costs exceeding expectations, worsening working capital, and aggressive cash flow interpretation but insiders (notably the CEO/CFO) got paid very nice short-term bonuses."
"USCR's former CFO outlined expectations for continued EBITDA to Free Cash Flow expectations of 60% in late Oct 2016. Ever since making that forecast, USCR has fallen increasingly short of target."
"HHC’s three integrated business segments allow it to self-fund the equity required for development from (i) MPC land sales, (ii) cash flow from its operating assets, and (iii) equity in the land"
"In short, these transactions bear hallmarks of money laundering, where CPI PG appears in the final, critical stage—possibly cashing out launderers and their clients with clean, bondholder funds."
"Our suspicion is that like Zhonghuan, BEKE grossly overpaid for a questionable business in order to hide fake cash, a balance sheet problem created by BEKE’s gross overstatement of its revenues."
"Most analysts value Pioneer through shorthand methods like a multiple of EBITDAX. We think the proper valuation is a long-term discounted cash flow of the resource opportunity. So we built one."
"At the risk of this report seeming to be a love letter to Jay Brown, we quote him regarding the incompatibility of the REIT structure with the risks of emerging and frontier market cash flows."
"Not only would a partial or full monetization of real estate unlock substantial value, it would also accelerate SIX’s debt paydown, provide cash for buybacks and quicken dividend reinstatement"
"Avery is expensive relative to its specialty chemical and materials peers, even before our adjustments to its enterprise value for added debts, and normalization of EBITDA and Free Cash Flow."
"The stock price reflects concern about ballooning capital costs, chronic lack of free cash flow, a high oil price breakeven, and recent difficulty executing against guidance and expectations."
"While the Company reported stellar results and a record EBITDA margin of 15.2%, the store manager says the sales were great but the store burned through cash and the bottom line wasn’t great."
"By comparing the public filings of IQ and Wuhan DDMC (Xin’ai’s parent company) we conclude that the deferred revenue recorded by IQ is fraudulent and no non-cash contribution actually exists."
"Through FY2026, Salesforce will have an additional $20 - $25 billion of cash to deploy on either value-accretive M&A or further capital return, beyond the $10 billion share repurchase program"
"Assuming 2009E recurring Cash NOI of $316mm, if NOI drops only 5% to 10% and O’s cap rate increases to 9.5% to 10.5%, Realty Income’s stock price could decline ~43% to ~60% from recent prices"
"We believe our asymmetric hedging strategy is a superior alternative to a large cash position or a continuous hedging program, both of which can be a significant drag on long-term performance"
"We believe New TROX could easily lever up to 1.0x – 1.5x on a mid-cycle EBITDA basis and subsequently dividend the cash proceeds to shareholders while still maintaining strong credit metrics"
"We believe our selective hedging strategy is a superior alternative to a large cash position or a continuous hedging program, both of which can be a significant drag on long-term performance"
"GGO will have a strong balance sheet. 100% of GGO's debt is property level and non-recourse. $250mm of balance sheet cash ensures GGO has ample liquidity to fund value creation opportunities"
"By reclassifying WSP's net financing expense as an operational cash flow as opposed to a financing cash flow, we find that the Company's operating cash flow margin lags the industry average."
"We believe our selective hedging strategy is a superior alternative to a large cash position or a continuous hedging program, both of which can be a significant drag on long-term performance"
"For FTAI to realize AP EBITDA through cash flows from operating activities (CFO) it must invest 101% of the book value of Inventory after the inventory is transferred from Leasing Equipment."
"Based on peers, we conclude that there are potentially material opportunities to improve ADT's cost structure as a standalone public company, enhancing both EBITDA margins and free cash flow"
"In our experience, one of the most common signs a company is forging its cash balances is borrowing more money than it seemingly needs to, and at rates higher than what it earns on its cash."
"We have serious concerns that Amcor is restating interest income amounts. This suggests cash control issues, and casts the reliability of Amcor’s reported cash on its balance sheet in doubt."
"Based on SMCI's disclosures, we estimate its Q1 interest expense should have been $2.3 million vs. the $4.0 million cash interest expenses reported at the bottom of its cash flow statement."
"AOL should maintain an investment grade rating with leverage of $4.8 billion, representing 2.5x 2005E OIBDA and 2.8x 2005E OIBDAR, based on both its expected cash flows and perceived risks."
"MSCI appears to be making greater use of capitalized development costs that are added to the balance sheet, amortized to the income statement and conveniently ignored as non-cash add-backs."
"More concerning though, Matanya’s cash flow statement, which shows all movements from its inception on December 17, 2017 through December 31, 2018, shows zero lending or borrowing activity."
"In frauds there is a limit and eventually the bubble must burst - one cannot outrun the fundamental accounting equation between the income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement."
"After Vitek Seemingly Creamed ~€36.7 Million in Cash Gains by Round-Tripping Land Plots, CPI PG Took Highly Questionable Fair Value Gains on Them, Padding Reported Asset Values and Profits"
"These companies' stock prices have dramatically outperformed their competition because traditional multiple-of-earnings or cash-flow based valuations do not properly reflect Platform Value"
"Proceeds were used to refinance debt including a bridge loan related to our UK acquisition and drawings under our revolving credit facility; some of the proceeds will also be held in cash."
"Extending the guarantee period presumably continued to keep losses on these associates from being realized on Fairfax's income statement and / or avoids Fairfax having to lay out the cash."