Contrarian Corpus

364 documents showing 241–300

Pershing Square 2017-01-26

Portfolio-wide update (Mondelez, Air Products, Restaurant Brands, Chipotle, Howard Hughes, Fannie/Freddie, Valeant, Herbalife short, Platform Specialty, Nomad, CP, Zoetis)

Mondelez EBIT margin of 15.4% sits ~1,200bps below Kraft Heinz's 27.6% — a fixable gap

N3 V3 C2
Pershing Square 2017-01-26

Multiple (PSH portfolio update)

Long-term track record intact: 503% cumulative vs S&P 163% since 2004 inception

N3 V3 C3
Ancora 2017-01-24

Edgewater Technology, Inc. EDGW

Edgewater's entrenched legacy board has overpaid two underperforming executives for 14 years; replacing four directors with Ancora's slate unlocks a turnaround in this sub-scale IT consultant.

N4 V3 C2
Spruce Point Capital 2017-01-12

MGP Ingredients, Inc. MGPI

MGPI's whiskey-premiumization rerating is an illusion: Diageo is going in-house, inventory is stranded, and insiders are selling — shares should collapse 60-70% to $16-$21.

N4 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2016-12-19

China Huishan Dairy Holdings 6863.HK

Huishan's revenue is fabricated: tax-bureau data, cow-farm photos, and e-commerce scrapes all show the reported top line is dramatically overstated — the stock is a zero.

N4 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2016-12-16

China Huishan Dairy Holdings 6863 HK

Huishan is a fraud worth close to zero — fabricated alfalfa self-sufficiency inflates margins, RMB 1.6bn of CapEx is fictitious, and Chairman Yang has siphoned farms to a related party.

N5 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2016-12-13

Nidec Corp. 6594 JP

Nidec is a gigantic stock promotion: zero organic growth and aggressive accounting hide behind a Facebook-like multiple — fair value JPY 4,764, ~52% downside.

N5 V2 C2
Greenlight Capital 2016-11-28

Bayer AG BAYN

Bayer at €88/11x trades in no-man's land between Monsanto deal-sceptics and deal-believers; whether the merger closes or breaks, Bayer shareholders get cake.

N5 V3 C3
Elliott Management 2016-11-28

Cognizant Technology Solutions CTSH

Cognizant has deliberately capped margins at 19-20% for 20 years while revenue grew 70x

N4 V3 C3
Elliott Management 2016-11-01

Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC

Marathon is priced like a merchant refiner despite a 69% stable-earnings mix; dropping assets to MPLX and spinning Speedway, RefiningCo, and MidstreamCo unlocks $14-19bn (~60-80%+ upside).

N4 V4 C4
Elliott Management 2016-10-05

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. 005930.KS

Samsung Electronics trades at a 30-70% discount to peers on EV/EBITDA, P/E and P/B

N4 V4 C3
Starboard Value 2016-09-12

Perrigo Company plc PRGO

Perrigo lost half its value after rejecting Mylan's $205 bid; divesting Rx and Tysabri royalty, fixing BCH margins, and restoring credibility can re-rate the stock to consumer-staples peers.

N4 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2016-08-25

St. Jude Medical, Inc. STJ

St. Jude's $23B cardiac-device franchise rests on a Merlin ecosystem so insecure that hackers can crash pacemakers from 50 feet — a recall and two-year remediation imply 50%+ downside and likely covenant breach.

N5 V2 C2
Sandell 2016-08-22

Bob Evans Farms, Inc. BOBE

Bob Evans trades at $37 while its packaged-foods segment alone is worth $1.2-1.6bn; spinning off Restaurants leaves a pure-play BEF Foods parent worth $57-79 per share.

N4 V3 C2
Marcato 2016-06-13

Buffalo Wild Wings BWLD

Buffalo Wild Wings should reverse course on low-return franchisee buy-ins, refranchise to 90% by 2020, recapitalize, and fix incentives — unlocking ~180% upside to ~$402.

N4 V4 C4
Pershing Square 2016-04-26

Multiple (portfolio-level LP update: MDLZ, APD, ZTS, QSR, CP, HHC, VRX, PAH, FNMA/FMCC, NOMD, HLF)

Mondelez margin gap to peers (13% vs 17-26%) implies +600-700bps of optimized EBIT upside

N3 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2016-04-26

Multiple (Pershing Square portfolio: MDLZ, APD, ZTS, QSR, CP, HHC, VRX, NOMD, HLF-short)

Mondelez EBIT margin of 13.1% is far below peers (Kraft Heinz 26.5%, Hershey 20.0%) and well short of 3G playbook results

N3 V3 C2
Marcato 2016-04-06

Epiq Systems, Inc. EPIQ

Epiq's board has insulated management through chronic guidance misses, a failed Iris acquisition and governance entrenchment; electing Villere's alternate slate is the unique opportunity to unlock value.

N4 V3 C3
Engaged Capital 2016-02-18

Outerwall Inc. OUTR

Outerwall's cash-rich Redbox/Coinstar business trades at a 3x EBITDA capital-allocation discount; halting buybacks for a large dividend and running a sale process unlocks 150%+ upside.

N4 V3 C3
Elliott Management 2016-02-04

Bank of East Asia, Limited 0023.HK

BEA delivered 2.7% annualised return since 1997 vs 12.8% for family-run HK bank peers

N4 V4 C4
Pershing Square 2016-01-28

Pershing Square portfolio (multi-holding LP update: MDLZ, VRX, APD, ZTS, CP, QSR, HHC, PAH, FNMA/FMCC, HLF short)

2015 was -20.5% but portfolio trades at substantial discount to intrinsic value

N4 V3 C3
SpringOwl 2016-01-13

Viacom VIAB

Viacom's absent chair Redstone and overpaid CEO Dauman have driven a lost decade; replacing leadership, cutting $400M SG&A and launching OTT unlocks up to 135% upside to $95.90.

N4 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2015-12-16

Groupe Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA CO FP

Casino's financial statements mask 8.9x leverage and inflated EBITDA via related-party Mercialys real-estate sales; shares are worth €6.91 vs €48.97, an 86% decline.

N4 V2 C2
SpringOwl 2015-12-01

Yahoo! Inc. YHOO

Yahoo's Core is mismanaged but fixable — replace Mayer with an operator CEO, cut headcount two-thirds, bring Liberty in as a partner, and shares triple from $35 to $113.

N4 V3 C3
Greenlight Capital 2015-11-16

CONSOL Energy CNX

Market prices CONSOL as a dying coal miner, but its Marcellus/Utica shale gas acreage plus disciplined management make it worth $35.81/share versus $7.40 today.

N5 V3 C3
Elliott Management 2015-11-16

American Capital Ltd. ACAS

ACAS trades at 71% of NAV vs 115% peer median — chronic discount since 2008

N4 V4 C4
Pershing Square 2015-10-30

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

Citron's 'next Enron' channel-stuffing claim is verifiably false; Philidor accounting is conservative

N4 V3 C2
Muddy Waters 2015-10-15

TeliaSonera AB TLSN

Short TeliaSonera: disclosed Uzbekistan bribery is only the tip — ~SEK 17bn of suspect Eurasia/Nepal payments plus a multi-billion DOJ FCPA settlement threaten the dividend and cut stub fair value to SEK 27-29.

N4 V2 C1
Trian Partners 2015-10-05

General Electric GE

GE has quietly pivoted to a focused industrial post-GE Capital exit; executing 16% margins, prudent leverage and ~$100bn of buybacks gets the stock to $40-$45 by end-2017.

N4 V3 C2
Starboard Value 2015-09-30

Advance Auto Parts AAP

AAP trails O'Reilly and AutoZone by 800-900bps in EBITDA margins; closing the gap plus Worldpac monetization, buybacks, and multiple rerating drives AAP from $171 to over $350.

N4 V3 C3
Carl Icahn 2015-08-01

Icahn Enterprises L.P. (self) IEP

IEP stock returned 1,426% since Jan 2000 vs. 89% for S&P 500

N2 V3 C2
Greenlight Capital 2015-05-04

Pioneer Natural Resources PXD

Pioneer and the shale 'frackers' burn cash and destroy value on every BOE developed; their $27B market cap rests on proved reserves worth $3-8B — buy oil, not PXD.

N5 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2015-05-04

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

Platform companies are undervalued because P/E ignores value from future acquisitions

N5 V4 C4
Pershing Square 2015-05-01

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

Traditional P/E ignores Valeant's 'Platform Value' from disciplined M&A capital allocation

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2015-04-28

Multiple (portfolio update: AGN, VRX, CP, APD, ZTS, HHC, QSR, PAH, FNMA/FMCC, HLF)

Allergan delivered 89% return as Valeant bid catalyzed auction ending at Actavis $242 vs. $128 cost

N3 V3 C2
Engaged Capital 2015-04-22

Rovi Corporation ROVI

Rovi's entrenched board destroyed a decade of shareholder value while promising 'double-digit growth next year' every year; Engaged's nominees Lockwood and Rau bring operating credibility the incumbents lack.

N4 V3 C3
Trian Partners 2015-04-22

E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company DD

DuPont is a chronically underperforming conglomerate; electing Trian's four nominees forces structural review, cost cuts, and governance reform to unlock $120+/share by 2017 — a 21% IRR.

N5 V4 C4
Trian Partners 2015-04-21

E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company DD

DuPont is bottom-quartile under Ellen Kullman; electing Trian's four nominees unlocks $120/share by 2017 by cutting $2-4bn of excess corporate costs and ending 'crony' compensation.

N5 V4 C4
Trian Partners 2015-04-21

E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (DuPont) DD

DuPont is a chronically underperforming conglomerate bloated with $2-4bn of excess costs; putting Trian on the board unlocks a $120+/share, 21% IRR path by 2017.

N5 V3 C3
Trian Partners 2015-04-17

E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (DuPont) DD

DuPont is a chronic underperformer under CEO Kullman; electing Nelson Peltz and three nominees unlocks $2-4bn of excess costs and drives DuPont stock to $120 by 2017 (21% IRR).

N4 V3 C3
Trian Partners 2015-04-13

E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company DD

DuPont is a bloated conglomerate hiding $2-4bn of excess corporate costs and crony compensation; Trian's board nominees can unlock $120/share by 2017 — a 21% IRR.

N4 V3 C3
Greenlight Capital 2015-04-07

AerCap Holdings AER

AerCap, the largest independent aircraft lessor, trades at 8.5x earnings; the equity should rerate as the credit markets already have post-ILFC deal, supported by low-teens ROE and ~10% EPS CAGR.

N4 V3 C3
Trian Partners 2015-04-01

H.J. Heinz Company HNZ

Retrospective of Trian's 2006 Heinz campaign: a 13D white paper and proxy-won board seats drove brand reinvestment and cost discipline, delivering 178% TSR versus 40% for the S&P 500.

N3 V3 C3
Marcato 2015-03-01

The Bank of New York Mellon BK

BNY Mellon has squandered the 2007 Mellon merger under CEO Hassell; cutting ~10,000 excess FTEs and installing new leadership closes the State Street gap for 114% upside.

N4 V4 C4
Trian Partners 2015-02-17

E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (DuPont) DD

DuPont is an underperforming conglomerate burdened with $2-4bn of excess costs; elect Trian's four nominees to drive separation, cost cuts, and board accountability.

N5 V3 C3
Sandell 2015-02-01

Brookdale Senior Living Inc. BKD

BKD trades at a wide discount because its owned real estate is buried inside an OpCo; a tax-free PropCo/OpCo REIT spin plus governance overhaul unlocks ~$49/share.

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2015-01-29

Multiple (Pershing Square portfolio - annual update)

2014 net returns of 40.4% vs S&P 500's 13.7%, driven by Allergan (+19.1%), CP (+7.0%), and Herbalife short (+6.1%)

N3 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2015-01-29

Multiple (PSH portfolio: AGN, HLF short, APD, CP, QSR/BKW, PAH, ZTS, HHC, FNMA/FMCC)

Concentrated activist strategy delivered 40.4% net returns in 2014 vs. 13.7% for S&P 500

N3 V3 C3
Sandell 2014-11-01

TransCanada Corp TRP

TransCanada is an undervalued conglomerate; spinning off Energy and doing an all-in dropdown into TCP — Spectra-style — re-rates the parts to roughly $75/share.

N4 V4 C4
Marcato 2014-11-01

Dillard's, Inc. DDS

Dillard's trades at 6.2x EBITDA despite owning ~50mm sq. ft. of real estate; separating into OpCo/PropCo as peers have done implies ~$193/share vs. $109.

N3 V3 C3
Corvex 2014-10-14

Crown Castle International Corp. CCI

Crown Castle is a U.S. tower REIT 'betwixt and between' — raising the 2015 dividend to $4.00 (80% AFFO payout) re-rates the stock to a 4.0% yield, unlocking 27% near-term and 60%+ upside in 15 months.

N4 V3 C3
Starboard Value 2014-09-11

Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI

Darden's brands and real estate are worth $67-$86/share vs. $48 today — replace the entire board to execute the Brinker playbook: operational turnaround, real-estate separation, SRG spin-off.

N5 V3 C3
Starboard Value 2014-09-11

Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI

Darden underperformed direct peers by ~300% over 5 years under current Board

N5 V3 C4
Starboard Value 2014-09-09

Darden Restaurants DRI

Darden, the largest full-service restaurant company, trails peers on margins and total return; an operational fix, REIT spin, and SRG separation can unlock substantial value.

N3 V3 C3
Starboard Value 2014-09-01

Darden Restaurants DRI

Starboard's REIT math inflates multiples by ~4x turns through flawed peer selection and LTM vs. forward mismatch

N3 V3 C2
Starboard Value 2014-05-22

Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI

Darden's Board destroyed value by selling Red Lobster for ~1x EBITDA against shareholder will; replacing 12 directors unlocks a real estate spin, cost-cut turnaround, and peer-catchup upside.

N4 V2 C2
Spruce Point Capital 2014-05-20

iRobot Corp IRBT

IRBT is a narrow consumer-vacuum company riding a robotics bubble; aggressive accounting, insider selling and a decaying moat point to $20-$25, or 25-40% downside.

N4 V3 C3
Greenlight Capital 2014-05-05

athenahealth ATHN

athenahealth is the poster child of the cloud 'bubble basket' — strip Morgan Stanley's fantasy margin and revenue-per-doctor assumptions and the stock falls 80%+ toward a $50 adjusted DCF.

N5 V2 C2
Marcato 2014-04-22

Sotheby's BID

Sotheby's sits on $1bn+ of excess capital while insiders own 0.8%; Third Point's slate brings aligned ownership to drive capital return, cost discipline, and higher ROE.

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2014-04-22

Allergan AGN

Valeant's Outsider-CEO model delivered 2,544% TSR (25x) in six years under Mike Pearson

N4 V3 C3