219 documents showing 121–180

Feb 06, 2020

Spruce Point Capital

Dropbox, Inc. DBX

Dropbox is a decelerating, commoditized storage business whose reported FCF is overstated ~2x; fair value is $6.60-$13, implying 25-60% downside from $17.60.

N4 V3

Feb 04, 2020

Starboard Value

eBay Inc. EBAY

eBay is deeply undervalued; separating Classifieds at peer-level ~22x EBITDA multiples and enforcing a more aggressive Marketplace cost and revenue plan would unlock substantial upside versus today's 8.1x multiple.

N4 V2

Jan 15, 2020

Spruce Point Capital

LHC Group, Inc. LHCG

LHCG's 20.6x EBITDA multiple rests on phantom organic growth — excluding the failing Almost Family acquisition inflates growth ~500 bps, masking sub-2% reality and 35-65% downside to $60-$90.

N4 V4

Dec 10, 2019

Citron Research

Peloton Interactive PTON

Peloton trades at 2,286% above peers on EV per subscriber; once a cannibalizing app, undifferentiated hardware, and a March lockup wave hit, the stock collapses to $5.

N4 V2

Nov 14, 2019

Trian Partners

Ferguson plc FERG

Ferguson is a US specialty distributor trapped in a UK listing; demerging Wolseley and relisting in the US closes a 10.4x-vs-17.2x EBITDA peer gap.

N4 V3

Nov 13, 2019

Spruce Point Capital

Cintas Corp. CTAS

Cintas's fastest-growing fire inspection business is committing fraud while G&K integration masks financial strain — a sum-of-parts at peer M&A multiples implies 60-75% downside to $69-$107/sh.

N5 V4

Oct 29, 2019

Spruce Point Capital

Hill-Rom Holdings, Inc. HRC

Hill-Rom is a low-quality medical roll-up whose plateauing new products, exhausted margin expansion and aggressive accounting point to a 25-55% drop to $45-$75 per share.

N5 V4

Sep 25, 2019

Spruce Point Capital

Premier, Inc. PINC

Premier's earnings are artificially inflated by expiring pre-IPO shareback contracts; as member hospitals renegotiate at market rates, EBITDA halves and shares fall 55-75% to $8-$15.

N5 V3

Jul 31, 2019

Spruce Point Capital

Penumbra, Inc. PEN

Penumbra is a commoditized single-product 510(k) company whose aspiration-catheter franchise is collapsing to deep-pocketed bundlers; Spruce Point sees 40-55% downside to $85-110 per share.

N4 V3

Jul 24, 2019

Spruce Point Capital

Mettler-Toledo International, Inc. MTD

Mettler-Toledo's flawless EPS record masks aggressive capitalization, an empty Shanghai office, and PwC auditor conflicts — implying 30-50% downside to $410-$574 per share.

N5 V3

Jun 20, 2019

Starboard Value

AECOM ACM

AECOM is a collection of under-integrated franchises; a Jacobs-style operational overhaul plus outright sales of MS and CS can close a 5.3x multiple discount to peers.

N4 V3

Jun 13, 2019

Third Point

Sony Corporation 6758.T

Sony trades at a ~50% conglomerate discount; spinning Semiconductors into 'Sony Technologies', divesting listed stakes, and refocusing on entertainment unlocks ~2x SOTP upside.

N5 V4

May 23, 2019

Spruce Point Capital

Verint Systems, Inc. VRNT

Verint's reported 8% growth is a mirage of M&A, FX and ASC 606 tailwinds masking negative organic growth; rerate to BPO peer multiples for 60-70% downside to $17-25.

N4 V3

May 07, 2019

Spruce Point Capital

Kornit Digital Ltd. KRNT

Kornit's 2018 boom was an Amazon warrant-and-rebate illusion — 105% of cash flow came from one customer, a scandal-tainted CFO is covering it, leaving 75-85% downside to $4.50-$9.30.

N5 V3

Apr 30, 2019

Spruce Point Capital

PetIQ, Inc. PETQ

PetIQ's grey-market vet-drug margins and rebate-dependent earnings are unsustainable as Merial goes direct-to-retail, while a $200M wellness-center cash burn and the CEO's Petters/Fleming ties imply 75-90% downside.

N5 V3

Mar 21, 2019

Spruce Point Capital

Dexcom, Inc. DXCM

Dexcom's blow-out growth is a sugar high — driven by hidden price hikes and sensor stockpiling — and Abbott's cheap Libre 2 will commoditize CGMs, taking DXCM down 45-60% to $65-$85.

N4 V3

Mar 01, 2019

Spruce Point Capital

Carvana Co. CVNA

Carvana is a CCC+-rated subprime used-car dealer masquerading as a tech disruptor; Spruce Point sees 56-83% downside to $7.50-$19.60, with a credible path to zero.

N4 V3

Feb 25, 2019

Muddy Waters

Inogen INGN

INGN's growth narrative rests on an inflated $3-4B TAM that Medicare data contradicts; under a realistic 1.3M-user market, peak unit sales arrive this year or next.

N4 V1

Feb 15, 2019

Citron Research

Inogen INGN

Inogen's growth is built on a reseller network that lies to elderly customers about Medicare coverage to force cash sales — competition and oversight will collapse margins to a $46 stock.

N4 V2

Feb 08, 2019

Muddy Waters

Inogen, Inc. INGN

Inogen's growth story rests on a fabricated TAM sourced from a plagiarism-riddled WinterGreen report; real market is shrinking, peak sales arrive 2019-2020, target $46 (-67%).

N5 V2

Oct 31, 2018

Spruce Point Capital

Dollarama Inc. DOL

Dollarama trades 50% above peers as a 'dollar store' now selling $4 goods; reversing FX hedges, Dollar Tree's arrival and governance red flags imply ~40% downside to C$24.60.

N4 V3

Oct 23, 2018

Citron Research

Tesla, Inc. TSLA

After five years short, Citron reverses on Tesla: Model 3 is dominating luxury and EV segments, Munro confirms 30% margins, and worst-case math yields $599/share.

N4 V2

Oct 17, 2018

Spruce Point Capital

Mercury Systems Inc. MRCY

Mercury Systems faces 50-60% downside as Supermicro-hack exposure, missing cyber leadership, hidden A/R factoring, and the sector's richest multiple collide with rising DFARS compliance costs.

N4 V3

Oct 09, 2018

Pershing Square

Starbucks SBUX

Starbucks at 22x forward P/E vs. 26x historical average is a rare chance to own a category-killer coffee brand — fixable U.S. SSS and a $14bn buyback reverting the multiple doubles the stock.

N4 V3

Sep 26, 2018

Spruce Point Capital

Henry Schein, Inc. HSIC

HSIC's soon-to-spin Vets First Corp is growing far faster than the Street thinks — proprietary data shows 75% install-base growth, driving a $106-126 SOTP target vs. $84 today.

N4 V3

Aug 28, 2018

Citron Research

Wayfair W

Wayfair's unit economics are deteriorating — loss per new customer nearly doubled to $19 — while the stock defies gravity; Citron is re-shorting with a first stop at $100.

N3 V2

Aug 21, 2018

Citron Research

NVIDIA Corporation NVDA

NVDA, up 600% since 2016, faces in-house silicon from every mega-customer, collapsing crypto and autonomous narratives, and a benchmark-less Turing launch — shares revert to $200.

N4 V2

Jul 19, 2018

Spruce Point Capital

2U, Inc. TWOU

2U's one-size-fits-all OPM model is being disrupted by lower-take-rate fee-for-service rivals; FOIA-documented program failures imply 30-50% downside to $47-$65/share.

N4 V3

Jun 27, 2018

Spruce Point Capital

Momo, Inc. MOMO

Momo's 'blowout' live-video numbers hide a SAIC fraud charge, 123 undisclosed VIE subs, an illegal gambling site, and a fading KOL base — 30-50% downside to $23-$32.

N4 V3

May 31, 2018

Citron Research

Snap Inc. SNAP

SNAP is the cheapest social stock at 3x sales with 21% short interest, dominant teen mindshare and Tencent backing — upside to $17 as shorts cover.

N4 V2

Apr 23, 2018

Elliott Management

Hyundai Motor Group

HMG's Mobis-Glovis spinoff is suboptimal; a true holding-company structure plus KRW 6tn buybacks, a 40-50% payout, and independent boards close peer discounts and deliver 15%+ upside.

N5 V4

Apr 05, 2018

Elliott Management

Telecom Italia SpA (TIM) TIT.MI

TIM's operating turnaround is real, but Vivendi-controlled governance has tripled the peer discount; independent directors plus NetCo separation could double the stock to €1.6.

N5 V4

Apr 04, 2018

Spruce Point Capital

Globant SA GLOB

Globant is a poorly organized digital-IT roll-up using accounting games and Luxembourg disclosure loopholes to mask decelerating organic growth; shares warrant 40-50% downside to $24.50-$29.50.

N4 V3

Mar 16, 2018

Spruce Point Capital

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions KTOS

Kratos is an overhyped drone play run by executives tied to the Titan FCPA scandal; with the weakest margins in defense and a recent Director fraud indictment, we see 40%-70% downside.

N4 V3

Feb 07, 2018

Spruce Point Capital

Realty Income Corp O

Realty Income's 'magic dividend' flywheel is broken — true same-store rents are -0.8% (not +1.2%), and as rates rise and tenants disintermediate the stock re-rates 30-45% lower to $28-$35.

N4 V3

Jan 25, 2018

Spruce Point Capital

Ballard Power Systems BLDP

Ballard's 167% 2017 rally rests on a fragile China fuel-cell story with weak partners and zero insider skin; expect a repeat of the Azure failure and 35-70% downside to $1.15-$2.50.

N4 V3

Nov 01, 2017

Kerrisdale Capital

Adamas Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ADMS

Kerrisdale is long ADMS: Gocovri, the only FDA-approved drug for levodopa-induced dyskinesia, plus an MS and Vimpat XR pipeline, is worth over $100/share versus ~$25 today.

N4 V3

Jun 01, 2017

Citron Research

BlackBerry BBRY

Like NVDA's re-rating from graphics chips to AI, BlackBerry's QNX-led pivot to autonomous driving and IoT supports a $20 target — or a Mobileye-style buyout at a premium.

N4 V2

May 16, 2017

Elliott Management

BHP Billiton BHP

BHP's chronic underperformance stems from value-destructive petroleum bets and an obsolete DLC structure; demerging US petroleum, unifying the DLC and returning capital unlocks c.US$46bn.

N5 V4

May 08, 2017

Pershing Square

Howard Hughes Corporation HHC

HHC is the public-market way to invest alongside a Donald-Bren-style MPC compounder: irreplaceable master-planned communities with 37M SF of remaining entitlements, roughly 10x what's already built.

N5 V4

May 08, 2017

Greenlight Capital

Core Laboratories CLB

Core Lab trades at 35x 2018e P/E — double its oilfield-service peers — on a false secular-growth narrative; mid-cycle earnings imply $62 fair value and ~45% downside.

N5 V3

Apr 10, 2017

Elliott Management

BHP Billiton BHP

BHP's DLC structure, stranded US petroleum, and undisciplined capital allocation depress value; unifying, demerging, and running 14% discounted buybacks unlocks ~49% upside and US$46bn.

N5 V3

Jan 26, 2017

Pershing Square

Pershing Square Holdings Portfolio (multiple) PSH

2016 losses of -13.5% were driven overwhelmingly by Valeant; balance of portfolio performed well

N3 V3

Jan 12, 2017

Spruce Point Capital

MGP Ingredients, Inc. MGPI

MGPI's whiskey-premiumization rerating is an illusion: Diageo is going in-house, inventory is stranded, and insiders are selling — shares should collapse 60-70% to $16-$21.

N4 V3

Dec 13, 2016

Muddy Waters

Nidec Corp. 6594 JP

Nidec is a gigantic stock promotion: zero organic growth and aggressive accounting hide behind a Facebook-like multiple — fair value JPY 4,764, ~52% downside.

N5 V2

Nov 28, 2016

Elliott Management

Cognizant Technology Solutions CTSH

Cognizant's two-decade-old 19-20% margin policy and absent capital return have cratered its multiple; lifting margins to 23% plus a $2.5bn buyback and 75% FCF payout unlocks $80-$90/share, 50-69% upside.

N4 V3

Nov 28, 2016

Greenlight Capital

Bayer AG BAYN

Bayer at €88/11x trades in no-man's land between Monsanto deal-sceptics and deal-believers; whether the merger closes or breaks, Bayer shareholders get cake.

N5 V3

Nov 21, 2016

Elliott Management

Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC

Marathon's integrated structure hides $14–19bn of value; dropping all MLP-qualifying assets to MPLX and spinning Speedway, refining, and midstream into three standalone companies would lift shares 60–80%+.

N4 V1

Nov 01, 2016

Elliott Management

Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC

Marathon is priced like a merchant refiner despite a 69% stable-earnings mix; dropping assets to MPLX and spinning Speedway, RefiningCo, and MidstreamCo unlocks $14-19bn (~60-80%+ upside).

N4 V4

Oct 05, 2016

Elliott Management

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. 005930.KS

Samsung Electronics trades 34-68% below tech peers; demerging into Holdco/Opco, paying a KRW30tn special dividend and listing Opco on NASDAQ closes the gap while keeping Lee family control.

N4 V3

Sep 12, 2016

Starboard Value

Perrigo Company plc PRGO

Perrigo lost half its value after rejecting Mylan's $205 bid; divesting Rx and Tysabri royalty, fixing BCH margins, and restoring credibility can re-rate the stock to consumer-staples peers.

N4 V3

Aug 22, 2016

Sandell

Bob Evans Farms, Inc. BOBE

Bob Evans trades at $37 while its packaged-foods segment alone is worth $1.2-1.6bn; spinning off Restaurants leaves a pure-play BEF Foods parent worth $57-79 per share.

N4 V3

Jan 13, 2016

SpringOwl

Viacom VIAB

Viacom's absent chair Redstone and overpaid CEO Dauman have driven a lost decade; replacing leadership, cutting $400M SG&A and launching OTT unlocks up to 135% upside to $95.90.

N4 V2

Dec 01, 2015

SpringOwl

Yahoo! Inc. YHOO

Yahoo's Core is mismanaged but fixable — replace Mayer with an operator CEO, cut headcount two-thirds, bring Liberty in as a partner, and shares triple from $35 to $113.

N4 V3

Nov 16, 2015

Greenlight Capital

CONSOL Energy CNX

Market prices CONSOL as a dying coal miner, but its Marcellus/Utica shale gas acreage plus disciplined management make it worth $35.81/share versus $7.40 today.

N5 V3

Oct 30, 2015

Pershing Square

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

Citron's 'next Enron' attack on Valeant is a 1963 AmEx Salad Oil rerun — Philidor is ~7% of sales, the franchise is intact, and VRX at 7x cash EPS offers 60-215% upside.

N5 V3

Oct 30, 2015

Pershing Square

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

Citron's 'next Enron' attack on Valeant overstates the risk: Philidor is only ~6% of sales, and even written off, VRX trades at ~8x 2016 cash EPS with 135%+ long-term upside.

N4 V3

Oct 05, 2015

Trian Partners

General Electric GE

GE has quietly pivoted to a focused industrial post-GE Capital exit; executing 16% margins, prudent leverage and ~$100bn of buybacks gets the stock to $40-$45 by end-2017.

N4 V3

Sep 30, 2015

Starboard Value

Advance Auto Parts AAP

AAP trails O'Reilly and AutoZone by 800-900bps in EBITDA margins; closing the gap plus Worldpac monetization, buybacks, and multiple rerating drives AAP from $171 to over $350.

N4 V3

May 04, 2015

Pershing Square

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

Valeant is mis-valued on a traditional earnings multiple; crediting its Pearson-led Platform Value — like Jarden or Danaher — unlocks $330+/share, ~48% upside from $223.

N5 V4