Contrarian Corpus

151 documents showing 61–120

Pershing Square 2022-02-11

Pershing Square Holdings (fund-level annual update; covers portfolio including Lowe's, Universal Music Group, Hilton, Chipotle, Restaurant Brands, Howard Hughes, Domino's, Netflix, PSTH) PSH

PSH delivered 26.9% NAV return in 2021 and 50.1% 3-yr CAGR, outperforming activist and equity hedge indices

N2 V3 C2
Land & Buildings 2021-09-01

N/A (asset-class advocacy)

Publicly traded REITs have outperformed private real estate by 165–590bps annually for 20 years, offer better liquidity, cheaper valuations vs. bonds, and superior inflation-era returns.

N2 V3 C3
Starboard Value 2021-08-06

Box, Inc. BOX

Box is a best-of-breed cloud content platform that has missed every revenue target since IPO; a reconstituted board can fix go-to-market execution and close a massive valuation gap to peers.

N4 V3 C3
Starboard Value 2021-05-20

Box, Inc. BOX

Box's board issued $500m of KKR preferred to lock up >10% of the vote and entrench itself ahead of Starboard's proxy contest — Starboard demands the books and four new directors.

N3 V1 C1
Greenlight Capital 2021-05-12

Teck Resources TECK

Teck is the overlooked pick-axes play on the EV/green-electrification copper boom — QB2 doubles its copper mix and at forward-curve copper the stock is worth ~C$59, nearly double.

N4 V2 C2
Citron Research 2020-11-13

NIO Inc. NIO

NIO trades at 17-18x NTM EV/Sales — double Tesla's multiple — as a Made-in-China Model Y near $41K threatens the ES6/EC6; Citron closes its 2018 long at a $25 price target.

N3 V2 C1
Elliott Management 2020-11-11

Sampo Oyj SAMPO

Sampo core insurance has de-rated ~8x P/E vs Nordic peers since 2018

N4 V4 C4
Third Point 2020-10-07

The Walt Disney Company DIS

Disney should kill its $3bn dividend and plow every dollar into Disney+ content; subscriber LTV math and Adobe/Microsoft precedents show the re-rating dwarfs any dividend yield.

N4 V2 C2
Kerrisdale Capital 2020-09-01

AtriCure, Inc. ATRC

AtriCure's 7.5x revenue valuation assumes stand-alone Convergent succeeds, but electrophysiologists won't refer, and PFA plus real-time mapping will obsolete surgical ablation.

N4 V3 C2
Land & Buildings 2020-05-19

D.R. Horton and Invitation Homes DHI/INVH

COVID-19 has supercharged the suburban single-family thesis; entry-level homebuilder D.R. Horton and single-family rental REIT Invitation Homes trade 20%+ below highs despite accelerating demand.

N3 V2 C2
Starboard Value 2020-02-04

eBay Inc. EBAY

eBay is deeply undervalued; separating Classifieds at peer-level ~22x EBITDA multiples and enforcing a more aggressive Marketplace cost and revenue plan would unlock substantial upside versus today's 8.1x multiple.

N4 V2 C2
Citron Research 2019-12-10

Peloton Interactive PTON

Peloton trades at 2,286% above peers on EV per subscriber; once a cannibalizing app, undifferentiated hardware, and a March lockup wave hit, the stock collapses to $5.

N4 V2 C2
Trian Partners 2019-11-14

Ferguson plc FERG

Ferguson is a US specialty distributor trapped in a UK listing; demerging Wolseley and relisting in the US closes a 10.4x-vs-17.2x EBITDA peer gap.

N4 V3 C3
Starboard Value 2019-06-20

AECOM ACM

AECOM is a collection of under-integrated franchises; a Jacobs-style operational overhaul plus outright sales of MS and CS can close a 5.3x multiple discount to peers.

N4 V3 C3
Third Point 2019-06-13

Sony Corporation 6758.T

Sony trades at a ~50% conglomerate discount; spinning Semiconductors into 'Sony Technologies', divesting listed stakes, and refocusing on entertainment unlocks ~2x SOTP upside.

N5 V4 C4
Muddy Waters 2019-02-25

Inogen INGN

INGN's growth narrative rests on an inflated $3-4B TAM that Medicare data contradicts; under a realistic 1.3M-user market, peak unit sales arrive this year or next.

N4 V1 C1
Citron Research 2019-02-15

Inogen INGN

Inogen's growth is built on a reseller network that lies to elderly customers about Medicare coverage to force cash sales — competition and oversight will collapse margins to a $46 stock.

N4 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2019-02-08

Inogen, Inc. INGN

Inogen's growth story rests on a fabricated TAM sourced from a plagiarism-riddled WinterGreen report; real market is shrinking, peak sales arrive 2019-2020, target $46 (-67%).

N5 V2 C2
Citron Research 2018-10-23

Tesla, Inc. TSLA

After five years short, Citron reverses on Tesla: Model 3 is dominating luxury and EV segments, Munro confirms 30% margins, and worst-case math yields $599/share.

N4 V2 C2
Pershing Square 2018-10-09

Starbucks SBUX

Dominant global coffee brand trading at 22x forward P/E vs. 26x historical average

N4 V3 C3
Citron Research 2018-08-28

Wayfair W

Wayfair's unit economics are deteriorating — loss per new customer nearly doubled to $19 — while the stock defies gravity; Citron is re-shorting with a first stop at $100.

N3 V2 C2
Citron Research 2018-08-21

NVIDIA Corporation NVDA

NVDA, up 600% since 2016, faces in-house silicon from every mega-customer, collapsing crypto and autonomous narratives, and a benchmark-less Turing launch — shares revert to $200.

N4 V2 C2
Citron Research 2018-05-31

Snap Inc. SNAP

SNAP trades at largest-ever discount to FB/TWTR despite fastest revenue growth

N4 V3 C2
Elliott Management 2018-04-23

Hyundai Motor Group (Hyundai Mobis, Hyundai Motor Company, Kia Motors) 012330.KS / 005380.KS / 000270.KS

Mobis, HMC and Kia trade at 57%, 26% and 73% EV/EBITDA discounts to global peers — peers re-rate if structure is fixed

N5 V4 C4
Elliott Management 2018-04-05

Telecom Italia SpA (TIM) TIT.MI

Vivendi controls TIM with just 24% voting stake, running it as a subsidiary while minorities suffer

N5 V4 C4
Pershing Square 2018-01-29

Pershing Square Holdings (fund-level annual review covering multiple portfolio companies: ADP, QSR, MDLZ, HHC, CMG, FNMA/FMCC, PAH, NKE, HLF, SPGI) PSH

Pershing Square has restructured to a smaller, investment-centric organization — 'returning to our roots'

N3 V3 C2
Spruce Point Capital 2018-01-25

Ballard Power Systems BLDP

Ballard's 167% 2017 rally rests on a fragile China fuel-cell story with weak partners and zero insider skin; expect a repeat of the Azure failure and 35-70% downside to $1.15-$2.50.

N4 V3 C3
Kerrisdale Capital 2017-11-01

Adamas Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ADMS

Kerrisdale is long ADMS: Gocovri, the only FDA-approved drug for levodopa-induced dyskinesia, plus an MS and Vimpat XR pipeline, is worth over $100/share versus ~$25 today.

N4 V3 C2
Citron Research 2017-06-01

BlackBerry BBRY

QNX is entrenched in 60M cars across 40+ automakers — a leading autonomous-driving OS

N4 V2 C2
Greenlight Capital 2017-05-08

Core Laboratories CLB

Core Lab trades at 35x 2018e P/E — double its oilfield-service peers — on a false secular-growth narrative; mid-cycle earnings imply $62 fair value and ~45% downside.

N5 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2017-05-08

Howard Hughes Corporation HHC

HHC owns the best public-market analogue to Donald Bren's $15B Irvine Ranch MPC empire

N5 V4 C4
Elliott Management 2017-04-10

BHP Billiton BHP

DLC structure traps US$9.7bn of franking credits and a 12.7% Plc/Ltd discount

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2017-01-26

Portfolio-wide update (Mondelez, Air Products, Restaurant Brands, Chipotle, Howard Hughes, Fannie/Freddie, Valeant, Herbalife short, Platform Specialty, Nomad, CP, Zoetis)

Mondelez EBIT margin of 15.4% sits ~1,200bps below Kraft Heinz's 27.6% — a fixable gap

N3 V3 C2
Pershing Square 2017-01-26

Multiple (PSH portfolio update)

Long-term track record intact: 503% cumulative vs S&P 163% since 2004 inception

N3 V3 C3
Spruce Point Capital 2017-01-12

MGP Ingredients, Inc. MGPI

MGPI's whiskey-premiumization rerating is an illusion: Diageo is going in-house, inventory is stranded, and insiders are selling — shares should collapse 60-70% to $16-$21.

N4 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2016-12-13

Nidec Corp. 6594 JP

Nidec is a gigantic stock promotion: zero organic growth and aggressive accounting hide behind a Facebook-like multiple — fair value JPY 4,764, ~52% downside.

N5 V2 C2
Greenlight Capital 2016-11-28

Bayer AG BAYN

Bayer at €88/11x trades in no-man's land between Monsanto deal-sceptics and deal-believers; whether the merger closes or breaks, Bayer shareholders get cake.

N5 V3 C3
Elliott Management 2016-11-28

Cognizant Technology Solutions CTSH

Cognizant has deliberately capped margins at 19-20% for 20 years while revenue grew 70x

N4 V3 C3
Elliott Management 2016-11-21

Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC

Marathon's integrated structure hides $14–19bn of value; dropping all MLP-qualifying assets to MPLX and spinning Speedway, refining, and midstream into three standalone companies would lift shares 60–80%+.

N4 V1 C1
Elliott Management 2016-11-01

Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC

Marathon is priced like a merchant refiner despite a 69% stable-earnings mix; dropping assets to MPLX and spinning Speedway, RefiningCo, and MidstreamCo unlocks $14-19bn (~60-80%+ upside).

N4 V4 C4
Elliott Management 2016-10-05

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. 005930.KS

Samsung Electronics trades at a 30-70% discount to peers on EV/EBITDA, P/E and P/B

N4 V4 C3
Starboard Value 2016-09-12

Perrigo Company plc PRGO

Perrigo lost half its value after rejecting Mylan's $205 bid; divesting Rx and Tysabri royalty, fixing BCH margins, and restoring credibility can re-rate the stock to consumer-staples peers.

N4 V3 C3
Sandell 2016-08-22

Bob Evans Farms, Inc. BOBE

Bob Evans trades at $37 while its packaged-foods segment alone is worth $1.2-1.6bn; spinning off Restaurants leaves a pure-play BEF Foods parent worth $57-79 per share.

N4 V3 C2
SpringOwl 2016-01-13

Viacom VIAB

Viacom's absent chair Redstone and overpaid CEO Dauman have driven a lost decade; replacing leadership, cutting $400M SG&A and launching OTT unlocks up to 135% upside to $95.90.

N4 V2 C2
SpringOwl 2015-12-01

Yahoo! Inc. YHOO

Yahoo's Core is mismanaged but fixable — replace Mayer with an operator CEO, cut headcount two-thirds, bring Liberty in as a partner, and shares triple from $35 to $113.

N4 V3 C3
Greenlight Capital 2015-11-16

CONSOL Energy CNX

Market prices CONSOL as a dying coal miner, but its Marcellus/Utica shale gas acreage plus disciplined management make it worth $35.81/share versus $7.40 today.

N5 V3 C3
Trian Partners 2015-10-05

General Electric GE

GE has quietly pivoted to a focused industrial post-GE Capital exit; executing 16% margins, prudent leverage and ~$100bn of buybacks gets the stock to $40-$45 by end-2017.

N4 V3 C2
Starboard Value 2015-09-30

Advance Auto Parts AAP

AAP trails O'Reilly and AutoZone by 800-900bps in EBITDA margins; closing the gap plus Worldpac monetization, buybacks, and multiple rerating drives AAP from $171 to over $350.

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2015-05-04

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

Platform companies are undervalued because P/E ignores value from future acquisitions

N5 V4 C4
Pershing Square 2015-05-01

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

Traditional P/E ignores Valeant's 'Platform Value' from disciplined M&A capital allocation

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2015-04-28

Multiple (portfolio update: AGN, VRX, CP, APD, ZTS, HHC, QSR, PAH, FNMA/FMCC, HLF)

Allergan delivered 89% return as Valeant bid catalyzed auction ending at Actavis $242 vs. $128 cost

N3 V3 C2
Trian Partners 2015-04-16

E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company DD

DuPont's consolidated structure masks ~86% upside; separating GrowthCo, Performance Chemicals, and CyclicalCo/CashCo plus peer-level margins delivers an implied $122 target value by end-2017.

N3 V3 C3
Greenlight Capital 2015-04-07

AerCap Holdings AER

AerCap, the largest independent aircraft lessor, trades at 8.5x earnings; the equity should rerate as the credit markets already have post-ILFC deal, supported by low-teens ROE and ~10% EPS CAGR.

N4 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2015-02-17

Bolloré SA BOL FP

Bolloré's Breton-Pulleys circular ownership masks that public float is 42.8% not 24.3%; at €4.37 shares trade at 41% of €10.63 NAV — 95% upside to €8.50.

N5 V2 C2
Pershing Square 2015-01-29

Multiple (Pershing Square Holdings portfolio: Allergan, Herbalife, Air Products, Canadian Pacific, Restaurant Brands International, Platform Specialty Products, Zoetis)

PSH returned 40.4% net in 2014 vs 13.7% for S&P 500

N3 V3 C2
Sandell 2014-11-01

TransCanada Corp TRP

TransCanada is an undervalued conglomerate; spinning off Energy and doing an all-in dropdown into TCP — Spectra-style — re-rates the parts to roughly $75/share.

N4 V4 C4
Marcato 2014-11-01

Dillard's, Inc. DDS

Dillard's trades at 6.2x EBITDA despite owning ~50mm sq. ft. of real estate; separating into OpCo/PropCo as peers have done implies ~$193/share vs. $109.

N3 V3 C3
Corvex 2014-10-14

Crown Castle International Corp. CCI

Crown Castle is a U.S. tower REIT 'betwixt and between' — raising the 2015 dividend to $4.00 (80% AFFO payout) re-rates the stock to a 4.0% yield, unlocking 27% near-term and 60%+ upside in 15 months.

N4 V3 C3
Spruce Point Capital 2014-05-20

iRobot Corp IRBT

IRBT is a narrow consumer-vacuum company riding a robotics bubble; aggressive accounting, insider selling and a decaying moat point to $20-$25, or 25-40% downside.

N4 V3 C3
Greenlight Capital 2014-05-05

athenahealth ATHN

athenahealth is the poster child of the cloud 'bubble basket' — strip Morgan Stanley's fantasy margin and revenue-per-doctor assumptions and the stock falls 80%+ toward a $50 adjusted DCF.

N5 V2 C2