Contrarian Corpus

177 documents showing 61–120

Kerrisdale Capital 2022-04-01

Digital World Acquisition Corp DWAC

DWAC's $8bn pro-forma SPAC merger with Trump's TMTG will never close because the SEC is actively investigating it and can kill the deal via a stop order — fair value is the $10 trust cash (-80%).

N4 V2 C2
Engine Capital 2022-03-22

Houghton Mifflin Harcourt HMHC

Veritas's $21/share buyout of Houghton Mifflin steals the company for 7.6x 2024 UFCF; reject it and execute a standalone Dutch tender recap to reach ~$42 by 2024.

N4 V3 C3
Engine Capital 2022-03-22

Houghton Mifflin Harcourt HMHC

Veritas' $21 tender for Houghton Mifflin Harcourt steals value at 7.6x UFCF; a self-funded Dutch tender and standalone plan could deliver roughly $42 per share by 2024.

N3 V1 C1
Pershing Square 2022-02-11

Pershing Square Holdings (fund-level annual update; covers portfolio including Lowe's, Universal Music Group, Hilton, Chipotle, Restaurant Brands, Howard Hughes, Domino's, Netflix, PSTH) PSH

PSH delivered 26.9% NAV return in 2021 and 50.1% 3-yr CAGR, outperforming activist and equity hedge indices

N2 V3 C2
Pershing Square 2022-01-26

Netflix, Inc. NFLX

Market overreacted to weak subscriber guidance, creating an attractive entry point

N2 V2 C1
Land & Buildings 2021-11-01

REIT sector (thematic)

REITs hedge inflation, but only short-lease high-margin sectors — residential, self-storage, warehouses — work; office and net lease are bond-like losers in a 6%+ CPI world.

N3 V3 C3
Land & Buildings 2021-09-01

N/A (asset-class advocacy)

Publicly traded REITs have outperformed private real estate by 165–590bps annually for 20 years, offer better liquidity, cheaper valuations vs. bonds, and superior inflation-era returns.

N2 V3 C3
Kerrisdale Capital 2021-07-01

Acutus Medical Inc. AFIB

N3 V3 C3
Greenlight Capital 2021-05-12

Teck Resources TECK

Teck is the overlooked pick-axes play on the EV/green-electrification copper boom — QB2 doubles its copper mix and at forward-curve copper the stock is worth ~C$59, nearly double.

N4 V2 C2
Starboard Value 2021-05-10

Box, Inc. BOX

Box has underperformed cloud peers for years despite engagement, and the Board just cut a dilutive financing to 'buy the vote' — Starboard nominates four directors to force real transformation.

N3 V1 C1
Land & Buildings 2021-05-01

Hilton Grand Vacations HGV

HGV is overpaying 10x EBITDA for Diamond and handing Apollo effective control with no premium; standalone HGV is worth $55 — shareholders should vote AGAINST.

N4 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2021-03-03

XL Fleet Corp XL

XL Fleet is SPAC trash: salespeople were paid to fabricate pipeline, most touted customers are inactive, ROI is actually negative, and the stock is worth a fraction of its billion-dollar SPAC valuation.

N5 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2021-02-18

Pershing Square Holdings (own fund) PSH

PSH returned 70.2% NAV / 84.8% TSR in 2020, beating S&P by 5,180 bps

N2 V3 C2
Land & Buildings 2020-12-01

Multiple REIT subsectors (urban office, retail, business hotels, movie theaters)

Post-vaccine pent-up demand will mask permanent secular damage in urban office, retail, business hotels, and movie theaters — investors should sell the mirage, not buy it.

N4 V2 C2
Muddy Waters 2020-11-11

MultiPlan Corp MPLN

MultiPlan is a financially-engineered SPAC corpse losing its biggest customer UHC to UHC's own competitor Naviguard; expect 35% revenue loss and 8x+ leverage by 2022.

N4 V2 C2
Elliott Management 2020-11-11

Sampo Oyj SAMPO

Sampo core insurance has de-rated ~8x P/E vs Nordic peers since 2018

N4 V4 C4
Land & Buildings 2020-09-22

Apartment Investment and Management Company AIV

AIV's proposed taxable reverse spin-off won't close its 18% NAV discount and lets Considine duck 25 years of underperformance; demand a shareholder vote or explore a sale at $58 — 75% upside.

N3 V2 C1
Land & Buildings 2020-05-19

D.R. Horton and Invitation Homes DHI/INVH

COVID-19 has supercharged the suburban single-family thesis; entry-level homebuilder D.R. Horton and single-family rental REIT Invitation Homes trade 20%+ below highs despite accelerating demand.

N3 V2 C2
Pershing Square 2020-02-05

Pershing Square Holdings (fund) — portfolio includes Agilent, Berkshire Hathaway, Chipotle, Hilton, Restaurant Brands, Lowe's, Howard Hughes, Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac PSH

PSH delivered 58.1% NAV return in 2019, beating S&P by 2,660bps — return to roots is working

N3 V4 C3
Starboard Value 2020-02-04

eBay Inc. EBAY

eBay is deeply undervalued; separating Classifieds at peer-level ~22x EBITDA multiples and enforcing a more aggressive Marketplace cost and revenue plan would unlock substantial upside versus today's 8.1x multiple.

N4 V2 C2
Trian Partners 2019-11-14

Ferguson plc FERG

Ferguson is a US specialty distributor trapped in a UK listing; demerging Wolseley and relisting in the US closes a 10.4x-vs-17.2x EBITDA peer gap.

N4 V3 C3
Elliott Management 2019-09-24

Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC

Separating Marathon into three independent businesses unlocks $22-$40bn of value (60%+ upside)

N5 V4 C4
Kerrisdale Capital 2019-07-01

CareDx, Inc. CDNA

CareDx is a $1.7bn story built on AllSure, a cfDNA kidney-rejection test that misses 40% of rejections and faces 70% annual patient attrition, competition and Medicare reset — ~70% downside.

N4 V2 C2
Starboard Value 2019-06-20

AECOM ACM

AECOM is a collection of under-integrated franchises; a Jacobs-style operational overhaul plus outright sales of MS and CS can close a 5.3x multiple discount to peers.

N4 V3 C3
Third Point 2019-06-13

Sony Corporation 6758.T

Sony trades at a ~50% conglomerate discount; spinning Semiconductors into 'Sony Technologies', divesting listed stakes, and refocusing on entertainment unlocks ~2x SOTP upside.

N5 V4 C4
Pershing Square 2019-02-13

Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. (annual portfolio update; covers CMG, ADP, QSR, LOW, SBUX, HLT, UTX, HHC, FNMA/FMCC) PSH

PSH trades at 27% discount to NAV despite 13.8% net CAGR since 2004 vs 8.4% for S&P 500

N3 V3 C2
Elliott Management 2019-01-07

QEP Resources, Inc. QEP

QEP's core-of-the-core Permian assets are stranded in a broken public-company wrapper; Elliott offers $8.75/share cash — a 44% premium — to deliver certain value through sale.

N3 V1 C1
Carl Icahn 2018-11-15

Dell Technologies (Class V / DVMT tracking stock) DVMT

Dell's $109 buyout of the DVMT tracker is really $90 — a 42% discount engineered to transfer $11bn from public holders to Michael Dell and Silver Lake. Vote no.

N4 V3 C3
Citron Research 2018-10-23

Tesla, Inc. TSLA

After five years short, Citron reverses on Tesla: Model 3 is dominating luxury and EV segments, Munro confirms 30% margins, and worst-case math yields $599/share.

N4 V2 C2
Trian Partners 2018-10-11

PPG Industries, Inc. PPG

PPG has underperformed peers by 3,500 bps under CEO McGarry; Trian wants Chuck Bunch reinstalled, the balance sheet levered, and the portfolio split into Architectural and Industrial to unlock ~40% upside.

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2018-10-09

Starbucks SBUX

Dominant global coffee brand trading at 22x forward P/E vs. 26x historical average

N4 V3 C3
Citron Research 2018-05-31

Snap Inc. SNAP

SNAP trades at largest-ever discount to FB/TWTR despite fastest revenue growth

N4 V3 C2
Carl Icahn 2018-05-24

SandRidge Energy SD

SandRidge trades at a ~45% discount to its own PV-10 because the post-bankruptcy 'bankruptcy board' destroys value via dilutive deals; replace it with Icahn's slate to run a real sale process.

N4 V3 C3
Elliott Management 2018-04-23

Hyundai Motor Group (Hyundai Mobis, Hyundai Motor Company, Kia Motors) 012330.KS / 005380.KS / 000270.KS

Mobis, HMC and Kia trade at 57%, 26% and 73% EV/EBITDA discounts to global peers — peers re-rate if structure is fixed

N5 V4 C4
Elliott Management 2018-04-05

Telecom Italia SpA (TIM) TIT.MI

Vivendi controls TIM with just 24% voting stake, running it as a subsidiary while minorities suffer

N5 V4 C4
Pershing Square 2018-01-29

Pershing Square Holdings (PSH) — portfolio review PSH

Returning to roots: smaller investment-centric team, reaffirmed core principles, growth from returns not AUM

N3 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2018-01-29

Pershing Square Holdings (fund-level annual review covering multiple portfolio companies: ADP, QSR, MDLZ, HHC, CMG, FNMA/FMCC, PAH, NKE, HLF, SPGI) PSH

Pershing Square has restructured to a smaller, investment-centric organization — 'returning to our roots'

N3 V3 C2
Spruce Point Capital 2018-01-25

Ballard Power Systems BLDP

Ballard's 167% 2017 rally rests on a fragile China fuel-cell story with weak partners and zero insider skin; expect a repeat of the Azure failure and 35-70% downside to $1.15-$2.50.

N4 V3 C3
Kerrisdale Capital 2017-11-01

Adamas Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ADMS

Kerrisdale is long ADMS: Gocovri, the only FDA-approved drug for levodopa-induced dyskinesia, plus an MS and Vimpat XR pipeline, is worth over $100/share versus ~$25 today.

N4 V3 C2
Citron Research 2017-06-01

BlackBerry BBRY

QNX is entrenched in 60M cars across 40+ automakers — a leading autonomous-driving OS

N4 V2 C2
Land & Buildings 2017-05-30

Taubman Centers, Inc. TCO

Taubman's best-in-class malls are worth ~$106/share (~70% upside), but the family's dual-class 30% voting block blocks reform — elect Litt and governance expert Elson.

N3 V2 C1
Pershing Square 2017-05-08

Howard Hughes Corporation HHC

HHC owns the best public-market analogue to Donald Bren's $15B Irvine Ranch MPC empire

N5 V4 C4
Pershing Square 2017-04-24

Pershing Square Portfolio (multiple positions)

Core longs (QSR, MDLZ, CMG, APD, HHC) are high-quality businesses in mid-transformation with untapped margin upside

N2 V3 C2
Elliott Management 2017-04-10

BHP Billiton BHP

DLC structure traps US$9.7bn of franking credits and a 12.7% Plc/Ltd discount

N4 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2017-01-26

Multiple (PSH portfolio update)

Long-term track record intact: 503% cumulative vs S&P 163% since 2004 inception

N3 V3 C3
Greenlight Capital 2016-11-28

Bayer AG BAYN

Bayer at €88/11x trades in no-man's land between Monsanto deal-sceptics and deal-believers; whether the merger closes or breaks, Bayer shareholders get cake.

N5 V3 C3
Elliott Management 2016-11-21

Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC

Marathon's integrated structure hides $14–19bn of value; dropping all MLP-qualifying assets to MPLX and spinning Speedway, refining, and midstream into three standalone companies would lift shares 60–80%+.

N4 V1 C1
Elliott Management 2016-11-01

Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC

Marathon is priced like a merchant refiner despite a 69% stable-earnings mix; dropping assets to MPLX and spinning Speedway, RefiningCo, and MidstreamCo unlocks $14-19bn (~60-80%+ upside).

N4 V4 C4
Land & Buildings 2016-10-06

MGM Resorts International MGM

MGM's discredited CEO Murren was just handed a pay-for-showing-up contract; replacing him and unlocking real-estate value via MGM China, CityCenter and Bellagio sales delivers 35%+ upside.

N3 V1 C1
Elliott Management 2016-10-05

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. 005930.KS

Samsung Electronics trades at a 30-70% discount to peers on EV/EBITDA, P/E and P/B

N4 V4 C3
Starboard Value 2016-09-12

Perrigo Company plc PRGO

Perrigo lost half its value after rejecting Mylan's $205 bid; divesting Rx and Tysabri royalty, fixing BCH margins, and restoring credibility can re-rate the stock to consumer-staples peers.

N4 V3 C3
Sandell 2016-08-22

Bob Evans Farms, Inc. BOBE

Bob Evans trades at $37 while its packaged-foods segment alone is worth $1.2-1.6bn; spinning off Restaurants leaves a pure-play BEF Foods parent worth $57-79 per share.

N4 V3 C2
Pershing Square 2016-04-26

Multiple (portfolio-level LP update: MDLZ, APD, ZTS, QSR, CP, HHC, VRX, PAH, FNMA/FMCC, NOMD, HLF)

Mondelez margin gap to peers (13% vs 17-26%) implies +600-700bps of optimized EBIT upside

N3 V3 C3
Pershing Square 2016-04-26

Multiple (Pershing Square portfolio: MDLZ, APD, ZTS, QSR, CP, HHC, VRX, NOMD, HLF-short)

Mondelez EBIT margin of 13.1% is far below peers (Kraft Heinz 26.5%, Hershey 20.0%) and well short of 3G playbook results

N3 V3 C2
Pershing Square 2016-01-28

Pershing Square portfolio (multi-holding LP update: MDLZ, VRX, APD, ZTS, CP, QSR, HHC, PAH, FNMA/FMCC, HLF short)

2015 was -20.5% but portfolio trades at substantial discount to intrinsic value

N4 V3 C3
SpringOwl 2016-01-13

Viacom VIAB

Viacom's absent chair Redstone and overpaid CEO Dauman have driven a lost decade; replacing leadership, cutting $400M SG&A and launching OTT unlocks up to 135% upside to $95.90.

N4 V2 C2
Starboard Value 2016-01-11

Macy's, Inc. M

Macy's $21bn real estate portfolio implies a negative-value OpCo; a real estate JV plus $500m+ cost cuts can crystallize hidden value without sacrificing cash flow or investment grade.

N3 V2 C1
Starboard Value 2016-01-11

Macy's, Inc. M

Macy's $21bn real estate portfolio exceeds its enterprise value; Starboard urges joint-venture structures plus $500M+ cost cuts to crystallize value without sacrificing cash flow or investment-grade rating.

N3 V2 C1
Starboard Value 2016-01-11

Macy's Inc. M

Macy's owns $21bn of real estate — more than its entire enterprise value; spinning iconic and mall properties into two JVs unlocks ~$70/share, ~88% upside.

N4 V3 C3
Muddy Waters 2015-12-16

Groupe Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA CO FP

Casino's financial statements mask 8.9x leverage and inflated EBITDA via related-party Mercialys real-estate sales; shares are worth €6.91 vs €48.97, an 86% decline.

N4 V2 C2